Submitted by Jim Hurley on Tuesday, April 2, 2013 at 7:00 AM
One of the biggest rivalries in sports continues Tuesday Night when the San Francisco Giants visit the Los Angeles Dodgers in a game that will be nationally televised by the MLB Network. An interesting new element has been thrown into the rivalry because Korean import Hyun-Jin Ryu will be making his Dodgers debut as their starting pitcher.
Let’s crunch some quick numbers to set the stage for this baseball battle that sports bettors will be watching with keen interest. Get a read on Ryu tonight…and you can profit from that read for weeks to come!
FINAL 2012 RECORDS
San Francisco: 94-68 (World Champions!)
Los Angeles: 86-76
The Giants certainly peaked at the right time last year, surging to the NL West crown (eight games better than the Dodgers) on the way to an eventual World Championship. When will the media and the markets learn to take the Giants seriously as true championship material?! Since last year, the Giants largely stood pat with an established roster, while the Dodgers spent like they were George Steinbrenner’s Yankees in an attempt to buy a championship right now. Because of those expenditures, the legal betting markets projected 90.5 to 91.5 wins for the Dodgers this year, compared to 88 wins for the Giants.
2012 RUNS PER GAME
San Francisco: 4.43
Los Angeles: 3.93
If you read JIM HURLEY’S NOTEOOK last year, you know we spent a lot of time telling you how great this San Francisco offense was. Remember that they played in the toughest hitter’s park in the National League, and the second toughest in the majors behind Seattle. Yet, they were still way above the league average of 4.22 runs per game. It was a hidden strength that the markets literally never adjusted to all the way through the World Series. The Dodgers also played home games in a pitcher’s park, which means they’re neutral field offense was closer to league average than is suggested above.
2012 ON-BASE PERCENTAGE
San Francisco: .327
Los Angeles: .317
San Francisco ranked #4 in the National League in this critical statistic, registering well above the league average of .318 even though they played half their games in a hitting nightmare. Amazing. The Dodgers were above average if you adjust for context. We can’t emphasize enough the need for handicappers to be aware of park effects when making their handicapping decisions.
San Francisco…Madison Bumgarner: 16-11, 3.37 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
Los Angeles…Hyun-Jin Ryu: 26-Year Old Rookie from Korea
Here we go. Hyun-Jin Ryu is a 6’2”, 255 pound lefty who is likely to be intimidating as heck the first time hitter see him. He did post good WHIP and K-Rate numbers in Korea…but that’s roughly the equivalent of Double A ball in the minors (and maybe only Single A ball). Facing a good offense like the Giants will let everyone know very quickly whether or not he’s ready for the big time in Los Angeles.
Bugmarner posted strong numbers, but pitched in a little bad luck to only go 16-11 for a team that almost won 95 games in the regular season. You have to assume Bumgarner has the edge here. But, Ryu might be one of those “first look lefties” who’s going to have a big edge his first time around the league.
INNINGS PER START AND K-RATE
Madison Bumgarner: 6.5 IP per start and 8.3 K-Rate
Hyun-Jin Ryu: Projected to have a good K-Rate
Bugmarner should be seen as a staff ace based on those numbers. Note quite Cy Young caliber…but if you’re going 6.5 innings per outing with a lot of K’s…then you’re very clearly an ace caliber pitcher at this level (granting that his home park did help him juice those numbers a bit).
This should be a fun game to watch as a fan, and it’s a critical game to watch for handicappers because getting a read on new starting pitchers is so important for staying ahead of the oddsmakers.
To find out if Giants/Dodgers made the cut at JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK, purchase the Tuesday slate here on the “buy picks” page at VSM. You’ll get the best from MLB, NBA, and the NIT Final Four. If you want to talk about monthly or seasonal packages, call JIM HURLEY’S handicapping office at 1-800-323-4453.
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