Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, April 1, 2013 at 4:00 PM
With the start of the Major League season upon us, it’s time for my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping to review the keys to beating April Baseball.
You always start with PITCHING when you’re talking about baseball. But, you have to be very careful with starting pitchers right out of the gate. The best arms are always priced expensively, even if the hurler isn’t anywhere near regular season form yet.
*Many aces start slowly
*Even aces who pitch well early are on limited pitch counts
*Some aces don’t like throwing in cool or cold weather
You regulars know that I emphasize PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS in my handicapping approach to all sports. Overpowering pitchers determine their fate in this sport more than any other player. It’s these men who are your PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS through the course of a season. In April? Caution is advised. If you think they’re in form, and well-suited to that day’s game conditions, then fire away. It’s probably best to save you’re 100-Unit and 200-Unit bets for a later time period when the margin of error is less of an issue.
The second biggest factor in April in my view involves the market. Deeper in the season, I’ll be ranking offensive evaluations right behind pitching. Right now, you want to be on the lookout for teams who are overrated (to fade) and underrated (to back) because they’re going to provide value throughout all of April. Oddsmakers are notorious for refusing to believe the final scores in early action…so the lines just do not adjust to teams who made real improvement in the offseason, or teams who have serious troubles with healthy or chemistry.
If you haven’t already done so, make a list of teams you think are likely to be most overrated and underrated out of the gate. Here are some quick defining characteristics for both:
*Usually in major markets
*Usually with high payrolls
*Usually on TV a lot
*Usually full of veterans who are known to start slowly in cooler weather
*Usually in mid-level or smaller markets
*Usually with low-to-medium payrolls
*Usually avoided by the TV networks
*Usually full of players in their prime or young hungry players trying to stick
Generally speaking, April is a month to focus on value rather than on field blowouts. Once you’re confident you have a young fired up team that’s going to blow-and-go through the month, then you can really load up. This first week is about searching for, and finding value in both leagues…while waiting for quality pitchers to settle into regular season form.
We’ll talk more about baseball through April. But, we have the Final Four in college hoops to contend with later this week, and the stretch run of the NBA regular season leading into the playoffs. It’s a great time to be a sports fan! I know most of you love betting football. I do too! But, I have to tell you that April and May are among my favorite betting months of the season because of all the money you can make betting pro basketball and baseball. The busy DAILY schedules give you a great opportunity to find winners and pyramid your profits.
Maybe that’s one of the big hidden lessons for today’s College of Advanced Sports Betting coursework. Advanced handicappers understand the importance of attacking baseball! Make this sport work for you in the regular season…and you’re winning DAILY from APRIL through SEPTEMBER!
If you’re not confident yet picking games in MLB and NBA, you can purchase my picks here at this very website with your major credit card. I have great rates on seasonal packages in both sports.
Back with you later this week to talk about handicapping the Final Four. Louisville has looked great so far. But, Wichita State has shown they can be a giant-killer already (taking out the #1 and #2 seeds in their region), while we all know neither Michigan nor Syracuse is afraid of anybody. Advanced Sports Bettors know that hard work beats knee jerk reactions! Heartfelt thanks again to all of you who have been putting in so much hard work in recent weeks and months from the Dean of Sports Handicapping.