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Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, March 25, 2013 at 7:00 PM

Serious sports bettors and handicappers should make very good use of the time off between Sunday’s final “Round of 32” games and the start of this Thursday’s Sweet 16. The world is about to change for the remaining teams in a way that a few will have trouble anticipating.

You regulars already know that you need to focus on COACHING in the NCAA Tournament, and PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS when you’re trying to pick winners. That advice from last week doesn’t change. Watching the games on TV last week should have really driven that point home to you. Some coaches were in way over their heads under pressure (it’s a lot of the same men every year!). Many of the biggest upsets were keyed by PLAYMAKERS taking the bull by the horns and making things happen.

Let me discuss today how the world is about to change:



It’s one thing to get all excited about making something happen in the NCAA tournament. It’s quite another to deal with three days of fans and the media patting you on the back before you move under a much brighter spotlight with increased expectations.

Wichita State was a dog with nothing to lose against Gonzaga. Now they’re a favorite against LaSalle. Big difference! Florida-Gulf Coast has enjoyed one long party. Are their parents about to come home and spoil the fun? Respected seeds Indiana and Miami played very tight Sunday when they were supposed to win comfortably. Will the noose tighten even further now that an Elite Eight bid is in the offing? The kids on those teams don’t have any “deep” Dance experience at all.



Last week’s games were played in basketball arenas, as were all the conference tournaments. Half of the Sweet 16 games will be played in football stadiums. The Indianapolis Colts’ home stadium is the host to Oregon/Louisville and Michigan State/Duke. The Dallas Cowboys’ home stadium is the host to Michigan/Kansas and Florida-Gulf Coast/Florida. That could wreak havoc with long range shooting and the overall feel of the game for inexperienced players. Will the kids from Fort Meyers feel overwhelmed by the scope of the experience in Arlington?

I strongly advise you to study the current rosters and see which teams have players who are experienced in the football stadium environment. And, I strongly advise you to bet intelligently based on what you’ve learned.



Indiana is about to face the Syracuse zone for the first time. Is three days off enough time to prepare? Oregon likes pace, but they may have no concept of the defensive pressure they’re about to face from Louisville. Wichita State hasn’t seen anything approaching the true speed and impact of LaSalle’s guard-based attack out in the Missouri Valley Conference. Because of the nature of this year’s upsets, we have one of the most fascinating set of Sweet 16 matchups in tournament history.

In fact, the matchups are so complicated this year that it’s going to take Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping techniques just to come up with the right number for the game. The good news in that regard is that oddsmakers will be making educated guesses at best. The bad news is that many of you probably don’t have the nuts and bolts experience yet to truly find the best options.

I do think knowing the COACHES and PLAYMAKERS will be enough for you to find value. Uncovering the opportunities for really big 50-unit, 100-unit, or 200-unit plays is better left to the professionals in this very challenging environment.

Personnel matchups

Schematic matchups

Complicated game environments

Varying levels of pressure

This is the deep end folks…and I don’t want you jumping in recklessly. Off the top of my head I can’t think of a more complex set of circumstances in any handicapping endeavor of the past few decades. Any sport! If you need assistance, I encourage you to purchase my top plays through the week right here at the website with your major credit card. We’ll build our bankrolls in the NIT and NBA until the Sweet 16 gets started Thursday. If you’re a do-it-yourselfer who prefers to go it alone, I strongly advise caution while wishing you the best of luck.

Thanks again to all of you who regularly take part in the coursework here in my Advanced College. The industry’s Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates your attendance! I’ll be back again soon to talk more basketball.

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