Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, March 21, 2013 at 7:30 AM
A couple of days ago I told you I’d be back with our next edition of my College of Advanced Sports Betting in time for the Round of 64 in the NCAA’s. The games are set to begin. Here’s what you should be considering as you make your final choices Thursday and Friday before tipoff.
NOW MORE THAN EVER…PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS!
It’s hard to think of a single more important spot on the sports calendar to be focused on PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS within your handicapping process. I’m always emphasizing this theme to you. But, during MARCH MADNESS, it is easily the single biggest factor when it comes to picking winners.
Having a high impact star player rules the day in the Big Dance because:
*He’s one of only 10 players on the court, rather than 22 in football
*He’s the guy most likely to cause blowouts for favorites, or upsets for underdogs
*He’s the guy most likely to determine who wins a close game in the final moments
The NCAA Tournament is a showcase for superstars. Every Cinderella has a go-to guy who makes shots. Every champion has at least one and often two (offense and defense) who control their team’s destinies. Teams who lose their star to foul trouble or an injury turn mortal very quickly. The media will tell you the tournament is about coaches. That’s true to some degree (I’ll talk about that in a moment). I want you to realize that the tournament is about PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS first, and coaches second.
Bet on teams who have:
*Scorers who can be counted on to deliver under pressure
*Guards who are capable of scoring or getting the ball to the best scoring options
*At least one player who can rain treys from the heavens
These players will make money for you. Media hyped teams who DON’T actually have these things will lose money for you. It’s possible to hide the lack of a GAMEBREAKER in some weaker conferences in this sport, or by emphasizing defense at the expense of everything else. Those teams are about to lose low scoring games!
Normally my second element is THE MOTIVATION FACTOR. I have to tell you that this is basically meaningless in the Big Dance because every team is motivated. Maybe some are overconfident, tired, or otherwise distracted by chemistry issues. But, the players are excited to be in the tournament. Motivation cancels out. It’s a non-factor.
In the tournament, my second factor is COACHING. The media tries to make it first…because they need to get interviews with these guys year after year for decades and they want to stay on their good side. Unfortunately, they spend so much time trying to tell you that every coach is a great leader of young men that they never explain who the BAD coaches are!
I’m not going to get into specific individual coaches because this is a very important part of my overall handicapping process. I need to protect the information for my clients. I will tell you this:
*There are some coaches that you must BET AGAINST because they’re in over their heads at this level. They panic under pressure. They make poor choices in personnel matchups. They don’t call timeouts when they’re supposed to, but do call them when they’re not supposed to. They’re often overrated in the markets because of media hype, allowing you great value when you oppose them.
*There are some coaches that you must BET ON at affordable prices in their challenge games. I’m not talking about a great coach who’s laying 20 points in the first round. His coaching won’t matter in that game. And, he might be a classy coach who refuses to run up the score on outmanned opponents. I’m talking about games with shorter spreads where the winning team is usually going to cover the spread too. Some coaches are worth at least 5-6 points in playoff style basketball because they know how to attack an opponent’s weakness…and they know how to maximize their own team’s strengths. There are master chess players in this sport and you need to know who they are!
As you handicap each game on the Thursday and Friday cards (and again through the weekend when those winners play each other), you must determine:
*Who are the PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS on each team?
*Who has the coaching advantage based on tournament history (the NCAA’s and conference tournaments)?
Do that work, and the selections will make themselves. Don’t do that work, and you’ve got no chance of winning because you’ll succumb to media and market misdirection regarding things that don’t really matter.
My College of Advanced Sports Betting was built so regular Joe’s like you could learn how to make money during the most important gambling events of the year. You’ve won through the college football bowls. You’ve won through the NFL Playoffs. Now, it’s time to make even more money during MARCH MADNESS.
If you’d like some help finding the very best games on the board…or if you just don’t know the teams well enough to determine who the PLAYMAKERS and best tournament coaches are…you can always purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. Be sure to check out my affordably priced postseason package.
Back again in a few days to talk more college basketball. The Dean of Sports Handicapping has some bets to make and some games to watch!