Submitted by Jim Hurley on Wednesday, March 20, 2013 at 9:42 AM
The second half of my March Madness program opened 5-0 last night and that means I am 11-2 in post-season games the past three days. The pace quickens tonight with a 50-unit play on the NCAA game between Boise State (21-10) and La Salle (21-9) highlighting another five-game night.
Please keep in mind I will be releasing Thursday and Friday's NCAA games twice daily, first for the afternoon games (available between 9:30-10:00 a.m. Eastern Time) and then the evening games at approximately 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time each of those days.
All games may be purchased in individual daily packages but my recommendation to you is to get on board for my entire March Madness package for just $199. The package includes daily best bets in the NCAA Tournament, plus several 50-unit and 100-unit plays, and complete coverage of the NIT, including two 100-unit plays, the College Basketball Invitational and the College Insider Tournament.
My 3-Day 11-2 March Madness Run
Saturday, March 16
100 Unit College Tournament Upset Game Of Year
New Mexico (+2.5) 63, UNLV 56 (W)
10 Units...Kansas (-5.5) 70, Kansas State 54 (W)
10 Units...Louisville (-5.5) 78, Syracuse 61 (W)
10 Units...Indiana (-6) 56, Wisconsin 68 (L)
Sunday, March 17
50 Unit...Miami (-1) 87, North Carolina 77 (W)
10 Units...Saint Louis (-1.5) 62, VCU 56 (W)
5 Units...Mississippi (+11.5) 66, Florida 63 (W)
5 Units...Wisconsin (+1.5) 43, Ohio State 50 (L)
Tuesday, March 19
15 Units...Saint Mary's (-2.5) 67, Middle Tennessee 54 (W)
5 Units...Liberty (+3.5) 72, North Carolina A&T (73 (W)
25 Units...Alabama (-11) 62, Northeastern 43 (W)
10 Units...Stephen F. Austin (+7) 57, Stanford 58 (W)
College Insider Play
5 Units...Santa Clara (-8.5) 77, Vermont 67 (W)
Why Saint Mary's And Liberty?
Handicapping the college conference tournaments is one thing - handicapping the second half of March Madness is quite another. In the post-season college tournaments all teams have met during the regular season and the results of those games offer some insight into the outcome of a repeat matchup/s. In the NCAA and NIT tournaments, and the auxiliary post-season merry-go-rounds, teams that seldom met during the regular season are playing, and that requires the ability studying their records and then to accurately project how will they perform.
We did just that in Tuesday's mix of games and got it right, going 5-0 with games from the NCAA Tournament, the NIT and the College Insider Tournament.
The process of analyzing games between teams that have not met during the regular season requires a classical overview of each school, right down to things such as its enrollment, road records, conference affiliation, etc. In the post-season, when betting lines are extremely tight, no detail is too small to be weighted and entered into the handicapping equation.
To offer some insight into my betting process, here is how I released the two winning NCAA games, with the details and then with my comments. I believe there is a helpful handicapping lesson in this for everyone.
NCAA Play-In Games
Played on neutral floor at University of Dayton Arena (13,435) in Dayton, Ohio
Both Games Televised Nationally on tru-TV (formerly Court TV)
15 Units: Saint Mary's (27-6) -3 over Middle Tennessee State (28-5)
Prediction: Saint Mary's by 7-8
Saint Mary's represents the West Coast Conference, Middle Tennessee the Sun Belt.
RPI Ranking: Saint Mary's 29th of 347 teams, Middle Tennessee 28th of 347.
Strength of Schedule Ranking: Saint Mary's 96th of 347, Middle Tennessee 129th.
Road Record: Saint Mary's 11-5, Middle Tennessee 13-5.
School Located: Saint Mary's is located in Moraga, California, Middle Tennessee in Murfreesboro.
Enrollment: Saint Mary's (4,099), Middle Tennessee (24,192)
Starting Time: 9:10
Comments: Saint Mary's is 19-3 in its last 22 games and it is note all three losses came at the hands of West Coast Conference nemesis Gonzaga (30-2), the number-one ranked team in the country. The Gaels fell in those games 65-51, 77-60 and 83-78 - certainly no disgrace. Middle Tennessee was the odds-on favorite to win the Sun Belt Conference Tournament and took a school-record 17-game winning streak into its second post-season game and lost to Florida International, 61-57, as a 12.5-point favorite. Saint Mary's has three major things going for it tonight. The Gaels are NCAA seasoned, having been to the tournament four times in the past six years. They have proven themselves against a much more difficult schedule and, last but not least, are much more physical team than the Blue Raiders are accustomed to facing. Middle Tennessee is enjoying its best season in school history and is making its first appearance in the past 24 years.
5 Units: Liberty (15-20) +3 over North Carolina A&T (19-16)
Prediction: Liberty by 6-7
Liberty represents the Big South Conference, North Carolina A&T the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference.
RPI Ranking: Liberty 287th of 347, North Carolina A&T 213th of 347.
Strength of Schedule Ranking: Liberty 308th of 347, North Carolina A&T (323rd of 347.
Road Record: Liberty is 7-13, North Carolina A&T 10-13.
School Located: Liberty is located in Lynchburg, Virginia, North Carolina A&T in Greensboro
Enrollment: Liberty (19,214), North Carolina A&T (10,385)
Starting Time: 6:40
Comments: Both these teams are surprise participants in the NCAA Tournament but there is little question both are playing their best right now. Liberty certainly saved its best for last. The Flames opened the season 0-8, arrived at the Big South Tournament 11-20 and then proceeded to go 4-0, getting it done in four consecutive games as an underdog (+10.0, +4.5, +7 and +7.5) and becoming the second team in tournament history to qualify for the Big Dance with 20 losses. North Carolina A&T, a once-proud basketball participant, was facing its 16th consecutive losing season when its conference tournament began and then marched right through it to get here. This game has all the ingredients of a toss-up but my figures say Liberty is the side and should grind out the win. For the record, Liberty is 0-2 in past NCAA Tournament play, North Carolina A&T 0-9.
Tonight it is right back to with more of this detailed analysis and hopefully another 5-0 night.
Tonight's Betting Menu
50-Unit NCAA Showdown Play Wins Tonight
There are two NCAA Tournament play-in games tonight - both of national TV - and one of them truly is a showdown game between to outstanding basketball teams - Boise State (21-10) and La Salle (21-9) . These teams appear evenly matched - and in many respects they are - but one of them has the one single edge that should put it in the winner's circle. I am so I will win this game I am releasing it as a 50-unit play. Win this 50-unit play, plus a unit-rated play on the other play-in game from Dayton - LIU-Brooklyn (20-13) vs. James Madison (20-14) - for just $50, charged to your major credit card. Better yet, get on board for my entire March Madness package for just $199. The package includes daily best bets in the NCAA Tournament, plus several 50-unit and 100-unit plays, and complete coverage of the NIT, including two 100-unit plays, the College Basketball Invitational and the College Insider Tournament.
Nationally Televised Indiana State at Iowa Tops 3-0 Night In NIT
There are 20 NIT, CBI and College Insider tournament games on the schedule tonight and I am going for the money with three of them - highlighted by a 15-unit play on the nationally televised (ESPN) Indiana State (18-14) at Iowa (21-12) contest. Win this 25-unit play, plus two other unit-rated games, for just $20, charged to your major credit card. Better yet, get on board for my entire March Madness package for just $199. The package includes daily best bets in the NCAA Tournament, plus several 50-unit and 100-unit plays, and complete coverage of the NIT, including two 100-unit plays, the College Basketball Invitational and the College Insider Tournament.
25-Unit NBA Knockout Wins Big Tonight
There are 11 games on the NBA schedule tonight and in one of them is a team that is primed to play one of its games of the year, and I am releasing it to my Chairman's Basketball Investment Club clients as a knockout 25-unit play. This one should be over by halftime, if not sooner, and you can win it for just $15, charged to your major credit card.