Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, March 18, 2013 at 1:42 PM
I’ll discuss handicapping the NCAA Tournament in a couple of days. Right now, I want to focus on handicapping the NIT that starts Tuesday Night at various campus sites around the country. I think it’s very important that Advanced Sports Bettors pay close attention to the NIT because some of the easiest winners of the entire college basketball postseason are going to be in this tournament.
Why is that?
Because some teams are depressed about missing the Big Dance…and they’re going to bring very little intensity to the proceedings, while others are excited about the chance to appear on TV and continue their seasons, which will inspire peak excitement.
You regulars know that I typically focus on PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS first in my Advanced Handicapping process. In the NIT, it’s THE MOTIVATION FACTOR that must get first billing. Only AFTER you determine who cares and who doesn’t, are you able to move down the checklist to make smart selections against Las Vegas pointspreads.
Let’s take a quick look at the top eight teams in the NIT, those seeded either #1 or #2
NIT #1 Seeds: Kentucky, Virginia, Alabama, Southern Miss
NIT #2 Seeds: Maryland, Massachusetts, Baylor, Tennessee
History makes it very clear that a few of those teams are going to no-show the NIT. Maybe they’ll coast past a weak #8 or #7 seed in the first round (winning straight up, but not covering). The depressed will fall to the first good team they face. Fading these teams will make you some very serious coin, because oddsmakers must price the teams based on Power Ratings rather than whether or not the favorites care.
On the other hand, history also makes it very clear that at least one or two will absolutely breathe fire through the NIT, taking no prisoners on the way to the finals in New York to show the college basketball world that they deserved a bid to the Big Dance. These teams will cover pointspreads for you in dominating fashion because oddsmakers can’t move a line 4-5 points even when THE MOTIVATION FACTOR is that strong.
So, how can you tell the fire breathers from the depressed? This is where research comes into play. You probably watched the last game these teams played in their conference tournaments. Had any of these teams thrown in the towel on their season with a poor second half? Had they assumed they had done enough to get a Dance bid and now they’re heartbroken? Are the players expressing any excitement in interviews in their local media (the web has been a great invention for handicappers who want to know what local newspapers are saying).
You want to bet on teams who look and talk like they have a chip on their shoulder
You want to bet against fading, disheartened teams who aren’t going to show up emotionally
Then…you move on to PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS, investing your most serious betting units on motivated teams who have talented stars capable of expressing that motivation on the scoreboard. You look for value bets on talented underdogs against the disheartened #1’s and #2’s who will lack motivation. Dogs can’t score upsets without a star who can score!
I’m very much looking forward to the NIT opening round Tuesday and Wednesday Nights. I circled games for serious play when the brackets were announced Sunday Night even before the pointspreads went up on the board. In games like this…the pointspreads barely even matter! Oddsmakers are locked into a tight range of where the number needs to be to avoid getting one-sided betting action. Advanced Sports Bettors and Handicappers get to exploit the variance of team intensity with relatively limited risk.
The “right” teams are roughly 100% to win straight up and 80-90% to cover the number. Be sure you check the purchase page at this website for any announcements I have Tuesday or Wednesday about blockbuster NIT releases you can purchase with your major credit card. I’ll also be looking at the “play-in” games for the NCAA Tournament on those nights (and don’t forget about the NBA every night this week!). The purpose of my College of Advanced Sports Betting is to teach you how to pick winners on your own. If you’re still new to the game and need some assistance, my top plays are only a few clicks away.
I’ll be back with you before the start of the big schedule days to discuss Advanced Sports Betting keys for the NCAA Tournament. I have a fantastic lifetime history in this event because sportsbooks are defenseless against proven winning strategies. They will make money because the city is flooded with square tourists. My clients and I will make money because of how that square action warps the line.
Take it from The Dean of Sports Handicapping, this is one of the easiest weeks in the calendar year to make big money! Best of luck to all of you do-it-yourselfers who are in for a thrill ride this week. I strongly encourage each and every one of you reading this to spend at least one March Madness in Las Vegas. You’ll love the experience, and using my Advanced principles properly will more than pay for the trip!