Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Wednesday, March 13, 2013 at 8:00 PM
It’s an odd and unfortunate reality that a significant part of the postseason in college basketball features games where the best team doesn’t care if it wins! That may sound harsh. But, sports bettors and handicappers have learned that lesson time and time again over the years in major conference tournaments.
One of the hallmarks of my College of Advanced Sports Betting is what I call “The Motivation Factor.” In many college basketball tournaments that you’re about to watch on TV over the next several days, you’ll instead be dealing with the “LACK of Motivation” Factor.
Why is that?
*The number one seed in every major conference tournament is already a lock for the Big Dance…and almost locked into the seed they’re going to have in the NCAA tournament. If Indiana loses its first game in the Big 10, they’ll still be a #1 seed next week. If Kansas loses in the Big 12 tournament, they’re still going to be a #2 or a #3…and there’s negligible difference between the two in bracketing.
*The number one seed in every major tournament knows that their most important games are NEXT week instead of this week. Why kill yourself this week vs. a string of tough opponents knowing that the results don’t matter? Smart coaches and athletes know it’s best to save peak intensity for do-or-die situations when your season is on the line.
*The number one seed in every major tournament hasn’t played on back-to-back days in quite a long time, if at all this year. This is how fatigue gets combined with a lack of interest to create some very ugly performances in the semi-finals or finals…even if a national power can avoid an early upset.
I strongly encourage each of you reading this right now to go through the major conference brackets and ask yourself these questions:
*Which #1 seeds have virtually nothing to play for this week?
*Which #2 seeds have a chip on their shoulder, and DO have motivation this week because of revenge vs. #1?
*Which teams seeded #2-3-4 are safely in the Dance, and lack any obvious reason to go for broke this week?
*Which teams are on the tournament bubble, and have every reason to bring peak intensity right now?
You longtime students can rest assured that my strongest plays this week will involve teams who have PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS and THE MOTIVATION FACTOR going for them. What’s unique is that many superpowers are temporarily disqualified from consideration because of “The Lack of Motivation” Factor. Teams who would have qualified for a 100-Unit or 200-Unit play last week or the week before…and who may again qualify for major bet status next week or in the Sweet 16, will not be on my card in these next few days.
Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. How many bets have YOU lost in recent years on great teams who seemed to be laying cheap prices…just before they were knocked on their rumps in embarrassing fashion? You were knocked on YOUR rump in embarrassing fashion too, weren’t you?
Best choices for big bets: talented teams with a chip on their shoulder or who are in desperation mode…particularly those who ended the regular season in very good form (I can think of at least four teams who fit this right now…and those four could be playing 12 games in the next few days!)
Best choices for value bets: live underdogs against disinterested favorites, particularly if those live underdogs have at least one legitimate scoring threat.
Worst choices for big bets: Public powerhouses who have nothing meaningful at stake. Some will cover a game or two anyway…and maybe a couple will grind their way to tournament victories with three-quarter efforts. The percentages are against them. Advanced Sports Bettors put the percentages in their favor.
If you’re afraid you’re going to zig this week when you should be zagging, you can sign up for my personal service here at the website with your major credit card. Game day Best Bets are affordably priced, as is my full postseason basketball package.
Conference tournament coverage will continue this week. Next week we’ll talk about the NIT and the NCAA Tournament. You’ve been working hard all season under the guidance of the Dean of Sports Handicapping in preparation for March. I can assure you that mastering the principals of Advanced Sports Betting will pay off now that the tournaments have arrived.