Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Wednesday, March 13, 2013 at 10:08 AM
There is little question the betting lines on March Madness games are tighter than a dead-heat and that situation is requiring handicappers to dig deep for the little edges that mean getting the cover. For instance, I went 2-1 with my March Madness plays last night, winning a 50-unit play with Wyoming (-3) with its 85-81 win over Nevada and taking down the money with a 10-unit play on Wright State (+8.5) in its cover in an 8-point loss, 62-54, to Valparaiso, while losing a 5-unit move on Mount Saint Mary's in its one-sided loss to LIU-Brooklyn.
In other words, I gave the 3 in the Wyoming game and won by 4 and took the 8.5 with Wright State and won by a half-point. Too close for comfort, for sure, but the bookmakers will be paying off this morning on both games.
This background brings me to tonight's 100-unit College Conference Tournament Game of the Year, releasing a team that has a 90% chance to cover the number. With the betting lines being as tight as they are, it is somewhat amazing a team emerges with that 90% figure but one has and I will be going for the money with that team.
Handicapping any game is a focused and detailed breakdown of every aspect of the game-both the objective (data, past performances etc.) and the subjective (all the impact elements that cannot be quantified and that are left to the judgment of the individual doing the analysis). Sometimes the latter is far more important than the former-and that is the case with this 100-unit play tonight. Situation and circumstance will rule the evening.
You can win my 100-unit College Conference Tournament Game of the Year tonight for just $50, charged to your major credit card. It will be available on this site around 1:30 p.m. (EST) today.
Wednesday's Betting Menu
25-Unit Knockout Play Highlights Afternoon Games
There are eight major college conference tournament basketball games Wednesday afternoon and I am releasing two of them-one as a 25-unit knockout play and the second game as a 10-unit bet. The team I am releasing at the 25-unit level grades out with a solid 85% chance to get the money and I am confident it will. Win this big-game play, plus a second 10-unit afternoon game, for just $25, charged to your major credit card. As noted you can win this afternoon's games for just $25 but I am suggesting your best bet is to get on board for my entire big-game packed March Madness Package for just $249, charged to your major credit card, and play every single day right through the NCAA championship game from Atlanta April 6.
100-Unit Play Has 95% Chance To Win, 90% Chance To Cover
I have found a team on tonight's March Madness college conference tournament schedule that grades out with a 95% chance to win straight up and a 90% chance to cover the number and that means it is time to go for the big money with my 100-unit College Conference Tournament Game of the Year. The team I am releasing has two tons of hidden form, is ready to play its best game, is much better than its record and should cover the number by 14-15 points. Win this knockout play, plus two other unit-rated bonus plays, for just $50, charged to your major credit card. As noted, you can win tonight's games for just $50 but I am suggesting your best bet is to get on board for my entire big-game packed March Madness Package for just $249, charged to your major credit card, and play every single day right through the NCAA championship game from Atlanta April 6.
15-Unit Play Tops 2-0 Night In NBA
I am having an outstanding NBA season and am going for two more winners tonight for my Best Bets Basketball Investment Club-one released as a 15-unit play, the second one at 5 units. I am looking to go 2-0 in the NBA tonight and you can get all the cash for just $20, charged to your major credit card.
3-1 In Basketball Last Night
I got back on the winning track, just as I said I would, with my March Madness plays last night and kept the winning streak going in the NBA. Here are the games I released, in the form I released them on this website. There is a handicapping lesson in each of them.
March Madness Package
Wyoming (18-12) -3 over Nevada (12-18)
Prediction: Wyoming by 15-16
Opening round of Mountain West Conference Tournament
Played on neutral floor at Thomas & Mack Center (18,776) in Las Vegas Nevada
RPI Ranking: Wyoming 69th of 347 teams, Nevada 167th of 347.
Strength of Schedule Ranking: Wyoming 53rd of 347, Nevada 43rd of 347.
Road Record: Wyoming is 6-7 on road, Nevada is 2-11.
Location: Wyoming is located in Laramie, Wyoming, Nevada is located in Reno, Nevada.
Enrollment: Wyoming (13,992), Nevada (18,227)
Starting Time: 8:00
Results: Wyoming 85, Nevada 81 (Win)
Comments: These teams met twice during the regular season and Wyoming won them both, at home 68-48, and in Reno, 59-48, and there is no reason to expect a different result tonight. Nevada has lost seven straight games and is 1-10 in its last 11. Wyoming begins the tournament off an 0-5 regular season close but in those five games lost to Colorado State (24-7), at New Mexico (26-5), at Air Force (17-12) at home to UNLV (23-8) and at San Diego State (21-9), a proverbial killer's role of opponents. Nevada has had a difficult time adjusting to the better caliber of play in its first year in the Mountain West Conference and is going to continue to struggle until it upgrades its program. While the teams have comparable talent, Wyoming has a tremendous edge in the coaching area with Larry Shyatt who is certain to bring a game plan to get it done. This one should not be close after half-time.
Championship Game of Horizon League Tournament
Wright State (21-11) +8.5 over VALPARAISO (25-7)
Prediction: Valparaiso by 2-3
Played at Athletic-Recreation Center, home court of Valparaiso, in Valparaiso, Indiana
RPI Ranking: Valparaiso 60th of 347, Wright State 142nd of 347.
Strength of Schedule Ranking: Valparaiso 169th of 347, Wright State 232nd of 347.
Home/Road Record: Valparaiso is 15-2 at home, Wright State 11-7 on road.
Location: Valparaiso is located in Valparaiso, Indiana, Wright State in Dayton, Ohio.
Enrollment: Valparaiso (4,061), Wright State (17,789)
Starting Time: 9:05
Results: Valparaiso 62, Wright State 54 (Win)
Comments: It goes without saying top-seeded Valparaiso is going to be difficult to beat on its home court but the figures say the betting line is simply too high. Wright State has lost twice this season to Valparaiso, 68-61, on this same court and 69-63 in Dayton, but certainly has the talent to take this game right to the money. Wright State comes into this off back-to-back tournament wins over 2nd-seeded Detroit, 56-54, and Youngstown State, 66-59, and figures to play its best game tonight. It would not surprise me to see Wright State win straight up.
Championship Game of Northeast Conference
Mount St. Mary's (18-13) +4 over LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY-BROOKLYN (19-13)
Prediction: Mount St. Mary's by 3-4
Played at Wellness Center (2,000), home court of LIU-Brooklyn, in Brooklyn, New York
RPI Ranking: LIU 185th of 347, Mount St. Mary's 119th of 347.
Strength of Schedule Ranking: LIU 285th of 347, Mount St. Mary's 180th of 347.
Home/Road Record: LIU 11-2 at home, Mount St. Mary's 8-11 on road.
Located: LIU is located in Brooklyn, New York, Mount St. Mary's in Emmitsburg, Maryland.
Enrollment: LIU (11,000), Mount St. Mary's (2,100)
Starting Time: 7:05
Results: LIU 91, Mount St. Mary's 70 (Lose)
Comments: Here again we have a team playing a championship game on its home court. LIU, like Valparaiso, will be tough to beat at home but my analysis says Mount Saint Mary's has everything it takes to get the straight up win. Mount St. Mary's won both of its conference tournament games on the road, both as an underdog, and its win at Robert Morris in its last game revealed the real talent and ability of the Mountaineers. They were 8.5-point underdogs on one of the toughest home courts in the conference and breezed, 69-60. My money says Mount St. Mary's will win this one straight up.
Best Bets Investment Club Basketball
Memphis Grizzlies (42-19) -1.5 over PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (29-33)
Prediction: Grizzlies by 6-7
Home/Road Records: Trail Blazers are 20-10 at home, Grizzlies 17-11 on road.
Last 10 Games, Streak: Trail Blazers are 4-6 in their last 10, lost 1, Grizzlies are 9-1, won 4.
Starting Time: 10:05
TV: Sports South, KGW Portland
Results: Memphis Grizzlies 102, Portland Trail Blazers 97 (Win)
Comments: The Grizzlies are playing their best basketball right now and come into this game 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games, with the only loss a 98-91 decision at the Miami Heat. Memphis also gets a big boost tonight with the return of forward Zach Randolph (15.75 points, 11.64 rebounds per game) who has missed the last four games-all Grizzlies wins-with an ankle injury. Portland is 3-0 in its last three home games against Memphis and is 7-2 overall in its last nine games with the visitors. But, with that said, Memphis is playing so well right now, I expect them to stop that trend in its tracks tonight.