Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, February 28, 2013 at 8:00 PM
I don’t talk much about stat handicapping here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting because the keys to my success over the years out here in Las Vegas revolve around my emphasis on GAMEBREAKERS and THE MOTIVATION FACTOR. But, college basketball in the month of March is arguably the best time to introduce statistics into your approach.
*Once the tournaments get started, you’re going to be handicapping games involving teams you haven’t seen very much of. If you live on the East Coast, you don’t know the teams out West very well. If you live out here in Las Vegas, you may not know much about the mid-major Dance teams East of the Mississippi. If you mostly follow the big TV games, you’re about to run into a whole slew of games involving teams you haven’t watched all season.
*Success in important late season games and the tournaments is typically tied to a few key areas. Those areas are well-measured by the statistical sites. You can catch up quickly on teams you haven’t followed just by evaluating those important categories.
*The general public starts to bet college basketball in March. They DON’T know the strengths and weaknesses of most board teams. If you DO, then you’ll be the smart money to the public’s dumb money. I can also assure you from my many conversations with oddsmakers over the years, they don’t follow the stats either. They follow the money.
Here are the stats you should focus on in your March basketball research.
Don’t use points allowed per game because slow pace can create illusions. Focus on shooting percentage allowed, points per possession allowed, and turnovers forced. You want REAL defense…meaning stealing the ball and preventing teams from getting to the rim. Holding the ball forever on offense isn’t defense in big March games. Winners must get stops. Advanced Handicappers and Sports Bettors need to know who gets stops.
I can’t tell you how many March college basketball games over the years have swung on rebounding. Every defensive rebound is like a steal because it ends the other team’s possession. Every offensive rebound gives you an additional chance to score. It’s basically impossible for a poor rebounding team to do well in the tournaments. Advanced Handicappers and Sports Bettors need to know who the worst rebounding teams are…and who the best ones are.
You’ve heard from many longtime basketball experts that solid point guard play is a key to postseason success. This is true. And, its reverse is also true…teams with lousy point guard play don’t last long! Look at offensive turnover totals and turnover rate so you can bet on the sharpest offensive teams, and bet against those who will kick themselves out of the tournament with miscues. Advanced Handicappers and Sports Bettors must know which teams have the best point guards.
In March, every point matters. Every possession matters. If you’re going to pick winners, you need to know who’s going to make the most of their possessions and who’s going to be wasting them. You’re about to confront a slew of games with pointspreads of less than four points where the pointspread winner will be determined in the last five minutes. Be prepared!
If you’d like some help building your bankrolls for March Madness here in the early days of the month, you can purchase my top selections right here at this very website with your major credit card. You can also sign up now for my full postseason package at a great rate.
You don’t earn the title of Dean of Sports Handicappers unless you have a track record in all major betting sports and in all major events. Advanced Handicapping wins in March because:
*We know how to find the PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS who will control their own destiny.
*We know how to find teams who VALUE AND MAXIMIZE THEIR POSSESSIONS in games where playmaking ability cancels out.
Be sure you start your stat studies NOW so you’re ready for the challenges ahead! I’ll see you again in a few days for more coursework here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting.