Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, February 22, 2013 at 5:01 PM
Rumor has it this is the final year of Bracket Busters in College basketball. I have mixed feelings about the role they have played in the last 11 seasons. If you’re a fan of college hoops, you’d have to say that the whole concept was largely a flop. Most of the matchups were irrelevant. The games that seemed important at the time turned out not to matter later. Big deal!
As a handicapper and sports bettor, I LOVED THE BRACKETBUSTERS because they gave me a lot of big edges against the oddsmakers that were very profitable to exploit. The lines were (and are again this weekend) very soft because oddsmakers use the most rudimentary of Power Ratings to put numbers on the games.
I will have what looks like it will be a Grand Finale 100-Unit Bracket Buster Game of All-Time going Saturday that you can purchase here at the website with your credit card. Who knows…maybe the sport will bring Bracket Busters back in the future. For NOW, it’s a Grand Finale! And, to make the day more special, I’ll also be releasing a 100-Unit College Basketball Blowout. That’s 200 Units of power packed together in two monster releases that you can also play in parlays.
Here are the keys that have brought me great success over the years in Bracket Buster Games…
*First and foremost, you know I look at PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS in my Advanced Handicapping process. This element is even more important in interconference and intersectional games involving teams who know very little about each other. If you haven’t scouted an opposing great player, you have very little chance of shutting him down. Great individual players will lead their teams to victories and pointspread covers in Bracket Busters at a rate much higher than in normal games. And, frankly, there are many lesser teams in these games that don’t have ANY dynamic players at all. Fade material.
*Secondly, I look to go against road teams that have no reason to get excited. Some schools treat the Bracket Busters like it’s a college football bowl game. That’s an easier sell for a home game, where you can create a special atmosphere. It’s much more difficult to get a road team excited about a trip to nowhere to play a team they’ve never heard of before. Try to fade BAD teams in these games who are likely to no-show on the road.
*Third, I think it’s very important to look for unique styles of play that are very tough to deal with if you haven’t seen them before. Imagine trying to face the Princeton-style offense of back-door cuts for the first time if you haven’t confronted it in the past. Defenders will keep running into each other while the well-run offense makes layups. Or, how about stumbling into a fast break run-and-gun style of play if you’re from a slower conference. The players will think it’s fun for about 20 minutes, then they’ll completely lose their legs. Teams with unique characteristics on offense or defense have significant advantages in this type of special event.
*Finally, I try to find a MOTIVATION FACTOR for the favorite that would encourage them to run up the score. Each year a handful of Bracket Buster teams are on the bubble for the Big Dance. They obviously want to impress. Maybe others are making their only ESPN TV appearance of the season, and they want to put on the best show possible. There’s rarely true “revenge” in these games because the matchups are so odd. But, a veteran team that lost its Bracket Buster last year may have revenge on its mind in terms of getting an impressive win this season. You see that in the college football bowls all the time, and these have a bowl feel for the better programs.
Any one or two of those factors being present makes a team worthy of consideration for a value bet. If you have a cluster of factors all pointing to one team (talented, motivated favorite with a unique strength playing a visitor that doesn’t care), then it’s time to take the rubber bands off your bankroll and really fire away.
Normally I encourage you to print out the coursework here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting so you can refer to material again in the future. That may not be needed here if there are never any more Bracket Busters! I do believe today’s discussion provides a helpful reminder of the handicapping keys in college basketball…keys that can be applied to any unique challenge that comes up. When the fundamentals become instinct, success becomes automatic.
Best of luck to you this weekend. If you’d like some assistance, this is a great time to try out my service because of the big plays I have on tap at very affordable prices. See you again next time!