Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Tuesday, February 19, 2013 at 4:52 PM
As promised, I’m back with some tips from my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping concerning the days right after the All-Star Break in the NBA. I encourage you to use these principles all through this week and the rest of February.
*Respect the Message Senders
Many top NBA teams use these first few days after the All-Star Break to send a message to the rest of their conferences. It’s time to get serious. It’s time to WIN! I’ve already isolated at least five teams I expect to come out strong and beat Vegas expectations on a regular basis. Their head coaches have a history of doing so. Their star players have the right mindset. PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS are most lethal in this sport when they’re at their most intense. The MOTIVATION FACTOR is very strong for this certain subset of teams right after the break. This is one of the single best weeks of the entire season for getting blowouts from the best teams. See if you can anticipate who’s going to be in playoff form over the next several days.
*Throw Out the early-February Garbage
It’s become a disturbing habit of many NBA teams to just go through the motions in the days leading up to the All-Star Break. Players aren’t happy to get just a weekend off. They want a week or 10 days off. As a result, there were some very ugly performances from respected teams in early February. FORGET ABOUT THOSE! Everybody’s refreshed. Everybody’s ready to go again. Don’t let what looked like a “slump” or “bad chemistry” influence your decision-making process. Several teams took some extra days off because their star players were “hobbled” by minor nagging injuries. After the Break, they’re ready to play again. Do your due diligence regarding talent and motivation as it stands RIGHT NOW. I wouldn’t be surprised if at least 4-5 of those teams who ended the first half on a down note don’t turn things around immediately now that everyone’s fresh and healthy again.
*Look for Playoff Intensity
When playoff caliber teams square off, you’re going to see playoff intensity over the next few weeks. Handicap accordingly! Look for Unders on the Totals, particularly with teams who have strong Under histories in the playoffs. Look for teams who thrive under playoff pressure to thrive now. Look for established teams who have folded in the past under playoff pressure to fold again. The closest thing we’re going to see to the playoffs…before the playoffs…is this period right after the All-Star break whenever good teams are matched against each other. Again, it’s all about intensity, energy, and good health.
*Chart the Schedules of Bad Teams
While it’s true that all 30 NBA teams are going to be fresh, you’ll see between now and the middle of March that many of the non-contenders are going to wear down. Why is that? All the good teams are trying again! That means the bad teams get bullied. I strongly encourage you to chart every team’s schedules so you know when the back-to-back games are, as well as any killer stretches where teams are playing 4-games-in-5-nights or 5-games-in-7-nights. Then, bet AGAINST tired, bad teams in those tough schedule sequences that are bound to come up. Remember…a big part of Advanced Sports Betting is knowing whom to bet against.
If you need some help, my best NBA and college picks can be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. I do want each and every one of you to develop your own personal handicapping style that will earn you profits. But…in a unique schedule period like this…it’s understandable that you might want some additional professional guidance your first time through. Help is always just a few clicks away.
Between the colleges and the pro’s, the basketball schedule is going to be very intense from this point forward. The Dean of Sports Handicapping will be back again in a couple of days with more coursework right here on these pages. You newcomers, be sure to print out each and every edition so you can create a virtual textbook you can refer to for years to come. My College of Advanced Sports Betting continues to grow in leaps and bounds. I’m grateful that so many of you have been here since Day One!