Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 12:41 PM
I’ve already talked to you a few times this year about the strong pointspread performances we’re seeing from underdogs in college basketball. The nature of the sport this season is that most favorites almost have to play PERFECT basketball to cover. You don’t make a lot of money in this field asking for perfection.
A great example of this at the moment is the Duke Blue Devils. They’re getting so much respect in the line, because of their storied history and their host start this season, that they have to play a very solid game just to be near the number. Anything less than their best, and their backers won’t get the money.
RECENT DUKE GAMES
Duke (-4) lost at Maryland 83-81
Duke (-10) only beat North Carolina 73-68
Duke (-11) only beat Boston College 62-61
There’s just not margin for error at those prices, either as a road favorite or home favorite. Hey, it may be a down year for North Carolina, but the team can still play! You probably watched that one. Should Duke have been favored by double digits? Duke was in desperation mode in the final minutes against Maryland Saturday Night. That was a toss-up, not a spot where Duke should have been laying four.
I’m not saying Duke will never cover. They did crush overrated Florida State on the road. But, two of their ACC covers were by less than a bucket (beating Georgia Tech and NC State by 13 and 16 respectively at high spreads). Generally speaking, Duke is overpriced by a few points per game. They have to play perfect to cover. If they don’t play perfect, they don’t cover!
And, they’re not the only team like that!
CHARACTERISTICS OF TEAMS WHO MUST BE PERFECT TO COVER
*Highly rated in the media polls
*Played great from November through January to force early market adjustments
*Discussed often in national championship race by studio shows
*On TV all the time
If you want to play favorites, you need to AVOID that group for the most part.
CHARACTERISTICS OF RELATIVELY RARE “VALUE” FAVORITES
*Playing well lately, but not ranked
*Disappointed through January, but got hot in February
*Still off the radar in title discussions
*Rarely on national TV
*Boosted in a particular game because of revenge, bounce-back, or other intangible factors
There are blowout spots on the card that can be played for profit. Advanced Handicappers must be smart about who they avoid…and smart about who they back.
Your daily tickets will usually be a mix of favorites and underdogs. My College of Advanced Sports Betting has shown you how to find the best options from both categories. Be sure you’re asking teams to do what they’re capable of with each and every one of your Las Vegas bets. Ask for what is reasonable, and you’ll get it more often than not. Ask for perfection, and you’ll usually be disappointed. That’s great advice in almost any Las Vegas endeavor you can imagine.
If you’ve been struggling with your own Las Vegas bets of late, you can purchase my top plays here at this website with your major credit card. I also have great rates for the rest of basketball (college and pro). The goal of my College of Advanced Sports Betting is to make each of you self-sufficient (hopefully you’re printing out every report to create a textbook you can use for years to come!). Assistance is always just a few clicks away if you’re not quite there yet.
We’ll be very busy with college and pro basketball in the days to come here on these pages. I’ll discuss some post-All Star Break strategies for the NBA the next time we’re together. I greatly appreciate the hard work all of you are putting into the coursework. I can assure you it will pay off throughout your career as a Las Vegas sports bettor. I’m the Dean of Sports Handicapping because I know what wins!