Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, February 14, 2013 at 4:47 PM
My planned third part to our series on positional play in college basketball is unfortunately very well-timed. Master shot blocker Nerlens Noel of Kentucky was lost for the season to a torn knee ligament this week, a dramatic reminder of the importance of post play in this sport.
In earlier editions we talked about the importance of the point guard position, and of having wings who can hit three-point shots. Today, we look at the impact that star post players have in the world of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping
*Posts who can score have become a very rare breed these days. This isn’t basketball of the 1960’s and 70’s where big men ruled the sport because the easiest way to score was in close. The creation of the three-point line made it easier to score from long range…and it also opened up the defense to allow slashers to wreak havoc on drives to dish or score. I’m afraid we’ve seen the last of the Kareem Abdul-Jabbar type. And, if another one comes along, he’ll be more interested in dramatic dunks than in a crafting a skyhook.
That being said…because posts who can score are so rare, a team garners a HUGE advantage over opponents when they have one! When you’re totaling up the number of PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS for your Advanced Handicapping, I suggest you count any dynamic post presence as at TWO times the value.
*In the modern game, tall offensive players are most important in the rebounding category. Every offensive board they grab is like stealing an extra possession…one that begins in great scoring position because of put-backs and foul calls. Be sure you’re studying offensive rebounding stats in the nightly boxscores (as well as free throw percentages for big men).
*This is where the post position is most important in the modern game. There may not be any more Jabbars, but there are a lot of Patrick Ewings. By that, I mean tall athletic giants who guard the basket in intimidating fashion. You would be well-served to know who these men are across the sport right now…and to invest in their teams whenever they’re up against opponents who aren’t good at three-pointers. One reason you see so many low scoring games this year is that offenses who are already shaky from long range have no workable options when they run into good post defenses.
*While I admit that having an explosive offense is the key to many of my biggest personal bets and releases in this sport (the 100-star and 200-star bombshells), many of my “value” bets at lower unit levels are keyed by defense. Oddsmakers have always underestimated the impact of defense in all sports. If you make it a point to study rebounding and two-point defensive marks in college basketball, you’ll be surprised at how many meaningful edges pop up on the card.
I know many of you are uncomfortable with the matchup-style of handicapping. You’d rather stick with Power Ratings and pointspread trends. That’s fine to a certain degree. But, this isn’t The Dean of Sports Handicapping teaching “Simplified Basketball 101.” This is ADVANCED Sports Betting and Handicapping. The more work you do…the more you analyze the keys that really matter most on the basketball court…the more money you’ll win.
If you’d like some help, my top plays can be purchased daily right here at this website with your major credit card. You can also sign up for the rest of the season at very affordable prices. We’re coming up on a great weekend to try out my service because the schedule is huge…and because oddsmakers are having significant trouble with the topsy-turvy nature of the current season.
I’m planning a report this weekend to talk more about college basketball. That sport will be the top priority in the days leading up to March Madness. Though, I will try to have some NBA reports lined up for right after the All-Star Break because that’s when the teams most likely to win blowouts for you are at peak freshness and intensity. Busy time…make sure YOU are doing what it takes to GET THE MONEY!