Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, February 11, 2013 at 8:00 AM
The last time we were together, I discussed in my College of Advanced Sports Betting the importance of the point guard position in college basketball. We used the Oregon Ducks as an example of what can happen to a team that loses its point guard for an extended period during the regular season. Since then, Oregon has failed to cover ANOTHER game, missing the mark in a closer than expected victory this past Saturday Night against Utah.
Today I’m going to talk about wing play. The perimeter game has become very important in college basketball. You regulars know that I’m often talking about PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS when discussing handicapping. Well, in college basketball, SHOTMAKERS can very easily be added to that list. I’m not referring here to ballhandlers who create their own shots, or big men inside who can take command of a game. The role of the three-point line in the modern game has made it VITAL that each team have at least one player who’s money from behind the arc. The most dangerous teams have more than one.
As you handicap each team…and each game…please play special attention to each team’s three-point shooting ability. If you have time to learn the personnel, do it! If not, because there are only so many hours in a day to monitor all the players on a couple hundred board teams, at least know overall team performances on three-pointers. You can deduce very quickly from the percentages whether or not each team has wings who can hit treys or not.
Once you have that information, use the following guidelines:
*Look to BACK good-shooting perimeter teams at home, where they’re used to the shooting sight-lines. Teams like this are LETHAL at value prices on their home floor because they can pile up the points very quickly. You particularly want to lay good prices against visitors who are poor from long range. And, you want to look for live dog spots whenever big name opponents come to town.
*Look to FADE good-shooting perimeter teams on the road if they also have mediocre or worse defenses. Trey shooting often blows hot and cold….and that breakdown is typically hot at home, cold on the road. An undersized team that relies on treys to make up for its own defensive shortcomings is blowout fodder away from home when the treys don’t fall.
*Look to FADE poor shooting perimeter teams at every opportunity, at least in terms of value betting. Big name teams who aren’t good from long range will often be overpriced in the line. Kansas is a good example of that. They’re 3-7 ATS in Big 12 play heading into Monday Night’s game against Kansas State because they don’t have any sure things from long range. Maybe the line has caught up to that reality by now. Maybe it hasn’t. You especially want to go against poor shooting perimeter teams on the road when they’re facing a host that can make treys.
*Look to BACK good-shooting perimeter teams in neutral site tournament games that have good shooting backdrops, but look to FADE them in converted football domes or other unique locales. We’ll talk more about the nuances of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping conference tournament games in about a month. I just wanted to put this on your radar now since so many of you are already watching games on TV with an eye toward the tournaments.
We’ll talk about inside scoring the next time we’re together…and then we’ll move to defense and rebounding in future coursework as we progress through the final weeks of the college basketball season. Some consider this the most profitable sport for sharp handicapping and betting because you have such potent combinations of matchup mismatches and motivational mismatches on a daily basis. I hope you’re having success finding some of those great spots on the board thus far.
If you’d like some help, my top plays can be purchased daily right here at this website with your major credit card. You can also sign up for the rest of the season at very affordable prices.
Back again soon with more from my College of Advanced Sports Betting. It’s a treat for The Dean of Sports Handicapping to see so many of you returning for each and every lesson!