Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, February 4, 2013 at 2:16 PM
I want to personally thank all of you who signed up for my 400-unit Super Bowl Sweep this past weekend. I won my first ever 300-unit play on the Baltimore Ravens plus the points…along with a 50-unit totals play on Over 48, and then the 50-unit side total parlay that paid 13-5.
This edition of my College of Advanced Sports Betting seemed like the perfect time to review the key reasons for those plays. Sunday’s Super Bowl provided ideal examples of the true power of my time-proven approaches.
First, my emphasis on PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS proved to be the difference maker because Jacoby Jones was able to take a kickoff return 108 yards to paydirt. Both offenses had playmakers. I don’t want to suggest that this category was a mismatch favoring the Ravens. But, the fact that Baltimore had the best special teams play in the league this year was a fantastic ace to have up my sleeve.
*I had the more trustworthy field goal kicker
*I had a kick returner who prides himself on attacking
If you assume the quarterbacks cancel out…because both Joe Flacco and Colin Kaepernick had been in great form…and that the star running backs cancel out…because both Ray Rice and Frank Gore are horses that can carry their offenses when needed…then special teams threats were likely to be a tie-breaker. And, that tie-breaker favored the UNDERDOG!
It turned out that field goal kicking didn’t matter (though it easily could have). Jacoby Jones sure mattered!
Also, my emphasis on THE MOTIVATION FACTOR helped point to the underdog too. As I said in the lead-up to the game, it’s very hard to be flat for a Super Bowl. I wasn’t under any illusions that ONLY Baltimore would be motivated. But, I did believe that their motivation had a greater sense of urgency.
*Both quarterbacks would be motivated. But, Flacco was trying to shake a reputation of choking in big games while Kaepernick still had his whole career in front of him.
*Both defenses would be motivated. But, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed knew the time was NOW if they were going to earn one last Super Bowl rings to cap off long, successful careers.
A slight edge in the motivation factor (let’s say it was 10-9 or 10-8 in boxing’s “10-point must” scoring system) along with an edge in GAMEBREAKERS were both pointing to the underdog. With these measures, Baltimore would have made sense at pick-em. We were getting at least four points on game day, +4.5 in some places.
On the total, I believed that the preponderance of evidence favored a game that would at least get into the 50’s. Among the reasons:
*Scoring conditions are always perfect in a dome
*Both quarterbacks had big play potential
*Both coaches like to attack aggressively on offense, which creates tempo and opportunities
*If Kaepernick’s inexperience was an issue, it could lead to easy points for Baltimore
*Both teams had the potential for kick return points, though Baltimore’s potential was higher
We close the book on football season. I hope you’ve been printing out all the football coursework this season so you could create your own football handicapping textbook that can be referred to in future seasons! If you had any doubts about the ability of handicappers and sports bettors to beat the market on the gridiron, my performance this year on major releases should have erased them completely. I’m so glad we could make such a statement with a 400-unit fireworks show in the grand finale.
Football may be finished until August…but these principals of PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS along with THE MOTIVATION FACTOR will still loom large through college basketball’s Road to MARCH MADNESS and pro basketball’s championship campaign. We’ll be talking quite a bit about that in the coming days and weeks on these pages. If you'd like some help finding winners on the nightly basketball schedule, you can purchase my top releases every night right here at the website with your credit card.
Back in a few days with basketball coursework. The Dean of Sports Handicapping is looking forward to guiding you through the coming challenges ahead. You’ve seen that hard work pays dividends. Get those pencils sharpened!