Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 7:00 PM
By now, those of you studying hard all season in my College of Advanced Sports Betting have made your final decisions in the Super Bowl. The most important thing you can do now is to NOT screw it all up by overplaying the options. Sportsbooks are trying to lure you to doom with temptation. Be disciplined!
*Don’t overbet your bankroll just because it’s the last game of the season. If you love a play (and KELSO STURGEON loves a play because I’m posting my first ever 300-Unit Super Bowl release), you must do that math and play appropriately within your personal financial picture. It’s okay to press up if you’ve won most of your big plays this year (as I have all through football). Don’t bet big if you’re down. Don’t bet big if you’ve broken even. It’s just another football game, and next season will be here before you know it.
Here in Las Vegas, sportsbook counters are jammed with squares making their biggest (or only!) bets of the year. Some casual but wealthy fans are making five-figure and six-figure bets just because it’s the Super Bowl. That’s not Advanced Sports Betting. That’s juvenile sports betting from men who have given themselves permission to be an undisciplined kid this week.
*Don’t be lured in by all the prop bets that you see flooding the Las Vegas strip. I’m okay with handicapping these and attacking the very best options. I’ll have a few prop bets I’ll be releasing to my clients. The key words there…A FEW! There are literally hundreds of choices this week…and most of them are going to make sportsbooks rich because squares can’t control themselves at a betting buffet.
The biggest mistake I see with props is that people take a quick look at the number and think to themselves “that doesn’t look right.” Let me tell you…oddsmakers don’t just throw numbers up willy-nilly. They spent more time studying the math than you did reacting immediately with your gut. Oddsmakers also know public betting tendencies, and have priced that into the line as well. Most people have square guts rather than sharp guts. You need to back off the props unless you’ve really done the work applying my principles of Advanced Handicapping to the numbers.
*Don’t second-guess yourself because of something you heard somebody say. Stick to your guns…and stick to my principals of Advanced Sports Betting. It’s hard to get away from the Super Bowl hype…particularly if you’re walking around casinos and listening to the chatter. Whoever you’ve picked, something a TV commentator says will make you second-guess yourself…or something you hear from a nearby conversation might concern you that “somebody knows something” about the other side. You’ll know that you’ve truly become an Advanced Handicapper when this stuff goes in one ear and out the other. You have to KNOW that you’re smarter than the average Joe’s jabbering with their buddies. You have to KNOW that you understand sports betting better than the guys on those studio shows.
Those are probably the three biggest issues that can create a lack of balance for you. Don’t overvalue your opinion and overbet. Don’t undervalue your opinion and talk yourself out of a winner. Don’t give into temptation by betting a bunch of props that you have no reason to even be involved with.
For those of you who haven’t made your final decisions yet, you can purchase my official plays right here at this website with your major credit card. I have a 300-unit play on the team side (my first ever), a 50-unit play on the total…and then a 50-unit side-and-total parlay that will pay 13-5 in a sweep. That’s 400-units total in a package that can be purchased right now.
Sunday’s Super Bowl is the grand finale for the football season. We’ll still be hard at work in basketball through March Madness and the NBA Playoffs on these pages. If you want to be a winning sports bettor, your education never ends! Thanks very much for your continued hard work. I’m looking forward to our next class in a few days.