Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, January 31, 2013 at 9:47 AM
I take all the credit when I win the big games and must shoulder all the blame when I lose one, and I did just that last night as Kent State was upset by Northern Illinois, one of the worst teams in college basketball, 67-65, in my 200-unit College Game of the Year. I am absent an excuse and it is somewhat ironic on this same night I went 4-0 with my other service releases.
As a handicapper I know it is a somewhat arrogant to take the position that given the same choices again I would release the same team in this spot, but I would. Here is what I had to say to my Internet clients when I released Kent State last night as the big one.
College Basketball Game of the Year
Kent State (11-9) -6.5 over NORTHERN ILLINOIS (4-14)
Prediction: Kent State by 12-13
Played at NIU Convocation Center (10,000) in DeKalb, Illinois
Starting Time: 8:00
Comments: This is a classic power vs. weakness game and there is no doubt which team is which. Kent State is one of the better road teams in the country, standing 5-2 away from home, and has dramatically superior talent compared to that of bottom-feeder Northern Illinois which scored but 25 points in its last game, losing at Eastern Michigan, 42-25, and which three games ago lost at home to Western Michigan, 71-34. In those two games, the Huskies shot 13.1% and 20.0% from the floor - an almost unfathomable number. Even more revealing is the fact Northern Illinois scored just 4 points in the first half against Eastern Michigan. Kent State has giant edges in talent and experience and should absolutely crush the Huskies who are the second youngest team in the country and who are in many respects worse than their record. It also is an important element in picking a winning game of the year team that one team has a solid tradition of winning while its opponent does not. Kent certainly has an established winning tradition while Northern Illinois is 9-40 over the past two seasons and 18-61 over the past three.
Again, there are no excuses and I apologize for being wrong in a spot I believed I was 100% right, proving once again in the world of handicapping one can sometimes be right and still lose. I will make it up to you between now and college tournament time - and the make-up game will be free to all who lost with me last night.
Best Bets Club Has Perfect 3-0 Night
While I dropped the big one, my Best Bets Basketball Investment Club went a perfect 3-0 with the following games.
15 Units: YOUNGSTOWN STATE (12-8) +3 ½ over Valparaiso (16-5)
Prediction: Youngstown State by 4-5
Played at Beeghly Center (6,500) in Youngstown, Ohio
Starting Time: 7:05
Results: Youngstown State 80, Valparaiso 68 (Win)
Comments: Youngstown State and Valparaiso are more evenly matched than their records suggest and I believe the former is the side in this one for two basic reasons - (1) it will be higher than a kite to beat its long-time nemesis (Valparaiso is 26-8 against the Penguins) and (2) the bias the home court brings. Valparaiso has won eight straight and is 9-1 in its last 10 while Youngstown State comes into this looking for its 4th straight win. The figures say this game will go right to the money and my gut tells me Youngstown get it done.
15 Units: Texas A&M (12-7) -4 ½ over MISSISSIPPI STATE (7-11)
Prediction: Texas A&M by 10-11
Played at Humphrey Coliseum (10,575) in Starkville, Mississippi
Starting Time: 9:05
TV: Comcast Sports South, Cox Sports Texas
Results: Texas A&M (-4) 55, Mississippi State 49 (OT) (Win)
Comments: It would be easy to duck this game if one took into consideration their respective losing streaks. Both have lost four straight - Texas A&M to Georgia, LSU, Alabama and Florida since winning at Kentucky while Mississippi State has lost to Florida, Arkansas, Tennessee and Alabama. The difference is how each performed in those losses. Texas A&M was outclassed by only Florida while it lost the other three games by an average of 4.0 points. In other words, the Aggies could have won the three. Mississippi State was blown out and non-competitive in its losses, losing by 35 to Florida, 26 at Arkansas, 15, at Tennessee and 32 against Alabama. Texas A&M has every edge but the home court and should get a comfortable win.
15 Units: AIR FORCE (12-6) -8 over Fresno State (7-12)
Prediction: Air Force by 13-14
Played at Clune Arena (5,843) in Colorado Springs, Colorado
Starting Time: 9:05
Results: Air Force (-8) 62, Fresno State 50
Comments: This is the best Air Force team I have seen in years and its performance profile reconfirmed itself this past Saturday when it won at Wyoming (15-4), 57-48, as a 7 ½-point underdog. The Falcons can win this one on talent alone but gets a giant bias by the home court bias in Colorado Springs, where it is 8-1 this season, with its only loss coming to nationally-ranked Wichita State (19-3), 72-69. Fresno State continues to struggle, has lost three straight and is 2-9 in its last 11 games.
Underdog Towson Wins SU For Chairman's Club
My Chairman's Club also got the cash last night with underdog Towson State, a 68-66 winner at Old Dominion. Here is what I had to say about this game.
25 Units: Towson State (10-12) +2 over OLD DOMINION (2-17)
Prediction: Towson State by 13-14
Played at Ted Constant Convocation Center (8,472) in Norfolk, Virginia
Starting Time: 7:00
Results; Towson State 68, ODU 66 (Win)
Comments: Towson State is much better than its record, stands 8-7 on the road this season and seems well-positioned to its 8th straight loss and its 15th in its last 16 games. The Tigers are 7-1 against the number in their last eight road starts and showed their true ability a few weeks ago when they won at Oregon State, 67-66, as a 14 ½-point underdog. ODU has won but two games this season, upsetting Virginia, 63-61 on a neutral floor as a 14-point underdog and beating Morgan State, 72-61, in the second game of the season. There is no reason to think Towson won't rock and roll in this spot.
Thursday Night's Betting Menu
All Games Available On This Site And Toll Free At 1-800-755-2255
100-Unit College Upset Game Of Year Wins Tonight
I got the money last night with two college underdog winners as Youngstown State (+3 ½) knocked off Horizon League favorite Valparaiso, 80-68, as a 15-unit Best Bets Basketball Investment Club play and as Towson State (+2) won straight up at Old Dominion, 68-66, as a 25-unit Chairman's Basketball Investment Club play. Those two games just added to a long list of underdog winners I have had this season and set the stage for tonight's big one - my 100-unit College Upset Game of the Year. I have found an underdog on tonight's schedule that should get the money by 9-10 points and I am going for the big money. Click here to get this giant winner for just $50, charged to your major credit card.
Best Bets Club Goes 3-0 Last Night - Right Back With 3 More Tonight
My Best Bets Basketball Investment Club went 3-0 last night, getting the cash with a 15-unit play on underdog Youngstown State (+3 ½) with its 80-68 winner over Valparaiso and with 10-unit winning plays on Texas A&M (-4) in its 55-49 win at Mississippi State and with Air Force (-8) in its dominating 62-50 victory over Boise State. And tonight I am coming right back with three more knockout winners and you can go 3-0 again for just $20.
Chairman's Club Scores Again With 25-Unit Winner Tonight
Last night my Chairman's Basketball Investment Club cashed a nice 25-unit ticket on underdog Towson State (+2) with its 68-66 win at Old Dominion and tonight I intend to do it again. Get all the money with another standout 25-unit college play that with another team that has the edges and is in the right spot at the right time to get it done. Win this one with me for just $25, charged to your major credit card.
My success in the Super Bowl is a matter of public record. Since 2001 I have gone 10-2 with winning sides and 11-1 with winning totals - a combined 21-3 record that means I have been correct 87.5% of the time. While I would like to take all the credit for this, I want to acknowledge much of this winning has its roots in a Super Bowl formula given to me 13 years ago by the late Hank Stram, the Hall of Fame Kansas City Chiefs coach, who won Super Bowl IV with a 23-7 victory over the Minnesota Vikings.
The formula broke each of the big games into 42 elements and by grading each team in each of those factors, with each category given its own weighted number, the Super Bowl winner emerged. The fact it has been right 83.3% of the time on picking the winning team and correct 87.5% of the time on sides and totals speaks for itself - and that brings me to today's game.
In handicapping this game 35 times, using Stram's formula and my insight into hidden edges, one of the teams in today's Super Bowl grades out with the highest numerical rating I have ever seen and that means I am releasing my first ever 400-unit play on this game.
Sunday's Super Bowl Menu
Super Bowl XLVII: Baltimore Ravens (13-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers (13-4-1)
- 300 Unit Wager On Winner
- 50 Unit Wager On Total
- 50 Unit Side/Total Parlay Getting Odds Of 13-5
Plus Free Bonus: 5 Standout Proposition Bets
Get on board with me and get all the money - again win it all for just $75, charged to your major credit card. Get the entire package Sunday morning on this site or toll free at the office, 1-800-755-2255.