Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, January 25, 2013 at 5:27 PM
Probably the biggest story in sports handicapping this week involved the high number of upsets we saw in college basketball on a day-by-day basis. I’ve already talked about the big money that underdogs were making for their backers. What really set the week apart was how many of those underdogs were winning OUTRIGHT, often by large margins.
That sets up a weekend where several big name programs are in “bounce back” spots. That plays right into my MOTIVATION FACTOR angle of handicapping. And, frankly, big name teams often have a lot of PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS too. So, there might be some situations where huge pointspread blowouts are in order because good teams are furious and will try to come out and make a statement.
Of course, oddsmakers KNOW this, and will try to stack the line against anyone wanting to play this angle. Here’s how Advanced Handicappers should to separate the true bounce back teams from the overrated pretenders.
*First, you must focus on the truly talented teams who are well-coached and disciplined. Some of the upsets from the past few days were the result of borderline teams being extremely overrated. Now they’ll be even more overrated in the line because of that bounce back motivation. Advanced Handicappers do NOT make their money by backing overrated teams and hoping they play well. They can separate the cream from the crop. Hopefully you’re watching a lot of basketball right now, which helps tremendously when it comes to exposing pretenders. You’re investing in ATHLETES, not media hype. Make sure you’re handicapping process involves finding athletes, not just listening to media drivel.
*Next, if you’re trying to find a pointspread blowout, you need to back a team that can SCORE. Favorites can’t “run up the score” if they can’t score in the first place! You saw this all during football season with many of my blowout winners. I had teams who would fly past market expectations and keep right on piling up the points. This is how you find cover projections that reach up into the 90% stratosphere. You need offenses who are going to score so much that the line doesn’t matter. I don’t mean to de-emphasize the importance of defense. But, THE MOTIVATION FACTOR is expressed on the scoreboard by OFFENSES showing no mercy.
*Finally, you want a head coach who has a history of bouncing back well. College Basketball is a coach’s sport. And, the way a coach handles fragile adolescent egos after a surprising loss tells you a lot about his overall ability. Obviously many big name coaches at major programs have suffered losses before. Review what happened in past seasons when that happened in January or early February. Did those coaches get motivated efforts and pointspread covers in their bounce back spots? Or, did they play well enough to win but not well enough to cover?
There’s not enough room to list all the top 25 teams who lost their prior game. That’s how many upsets there were! You need to go through each and every team to study their head coach’s bounce back history, their ability to score points, and whether their rosters have the kind of high grade talent needed to post a big result this weekend.
If you’d like some help with that because you’re still not up to speed in basketball, you can purchase my top daily plays right here at the website with your major credit card. I also have great rates for the rest of basketball. My goal here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting is to teach YOU how to make money as a handicapper. As you’re in the process of getting there, you can always use my plays to supplement your daily card.
Back again soon with more coursework. The Super Bowl is just around the corner. And, several basketball stories at both the college and pro levels are really grabbing the headlines. It’s a great time to be a sports bettor! The Dean of Sports Handicapping is always right here to help you find the best ways to succeed.