Submitted by Jim Hurley on Wednesday, January 23, 2013 at 10:10 AM
WE DO OUR PART TO GET THE SUPER BOWL XLVII HYPE MACHINE ROLLIN' WITH A POINTSPREAD BREAKDOWN OF BOTH HEAD COACHES ...
THE COLLEGE BASKETBALL REPORT:WE PREVIEW TONIGHT'S TILT BETWEEN #1 DUKE AT #25 MIAMI PLUS THERE'S MORE NEWS & NOTES WITH OTHER TOP 10 TEAMS IN ACTION TONIGHT
By Jim Hurley:
Okay, okay. So you've seen all the catchy headlines involving the now-already famous Harbaugh Brothers as their teams get set to collide in Super Bowl XLVII come Sunday, February 3rd:
"Oh, Brother" ...
"The Brotherly Love Bowl".
"The Har-Bowl", etc., etc.
Well, we're here to put a new/different spin on this coaching matchup between the NFC champion San Francisco 49ers and the AFC champion Baltimore Ravens and - surprise, surprise - it has nothing to do with the fact Jim and John are brothers but instead it has everything to do with their pointspread histories, so here goes:
JOHN HARBAUGH, Baltimore Ravens - Note that this AFC North crew is 10-8-1 ATS (against the spread) this season and that includes three covers in a row in this year's post-season and a current season-high five-game spread winning streak that just so happens to be the longest in Harbaugh's five-year pro coaching career ... so there!
In all, Baltimore is 51-37-4 versus the vig under the older Harbaugh since the start of the 2008 season - that's a nifty .580 winning percentage that includes an 8-4 spread log in all post-season affairs. Check it out and you'll see the Ravens are 8-3 against the odds in all post-season away games (.727) under Harbaugh and just consider that since he took command five years ago this Baltimore bunch has covered three playoff games (in as many tries) at New England to go along with post-season spread triumphs in Miami, Tennessee, Kansas City and Denver.
Dig a little deeper here and you'll see the Ravens are 5-3 spreadwise as underdog sides this year and a composite 19-13-2 ATS as underdog sides since Harbaugh showed up on the scene (that's a .594 winning rate) and this year Baltimore's won outright against the regular-season likes of the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants and the playoff likes of both the Broncos and the Patriots.
Finally, note that this Harbaugh has covered his team's last four in a row against non-AFC North opponents and the Ravens are a cumulative 35-23-1 ATS when playing outside their division these past five years. That's a sensational .603 winning rate - and, as you can see, there really are not any pertinent pointspread categories in which the Ravens have flopped in the Harbaugh Era.
JIM HARBAUGH, San Francisco 49ers - First things first, the here-and-now 49ers enter Super Bowl 47 at 10-7-1 against the Las Vegas prices this year and with a two-year pointspread mark under Harbaugh of 22-12-2 for a fabulous .647 winning rate.
In other words, if you've wagered $100 per-play on the 49ers since the younger Harbaugh came aboard prior to the start of the 2011 season than you'd be up a cool $880 ... not too bad, eh?
Keep in mind that San Francisco is 8-6-1 ATS as betting favorites this year and a composite 16-10-1 vig-wise as chalk sides these past two football seasons and when San Fran's priced between a 3- and 6-point betting favorite the past two years the NFC West gang is a tasty 5-0-1 spreadwise ... cha-ching!
The SF 49ers are 9-7-1 ATS away since the start of the 2011 season and that includes this year's 5-3-1 away spread mark that featured pointspread covers at Green Bay in Week 1 and at New England in Week 15 play.
In case you're wondering - and we know that you are - the 49ers are 3-2-1 versus the vig as away betting favorites this year and a cumulative 4-5-1 ATS when laying away points the past two years.
Obviously, much is already being said/written about that Thanksgiving Night matchup a year ago between these Harbaugh Brothers but just to set the record straight: The 49ers were a 3-point road underdog in Baltimore that evening and the Ravens won/cashed 16-6 and note the "totals" price in that particular tilt was 40 ½ points.
One last note here: The Niners did play at the Louisiana Superdome this year -- a 31-21 triumph over the 2 ½-point home underdog New Orleans Saints back in Week 12 while Baltimore's not played a regular-season game in N'Orleans since the 2006 season (the Brian Billick Era).
Hey, folks, here is this year's entire post-season pointspread chart as we head into SB XLVII (note all home teams in CAPS) ...
|WILD CARD ROUND|
|GREEN BAY||- 11||Minnesota||24-10|
|1-12||Baltimore||+ 9.5||DENVER||38-35 (2ot)|
|SAN FRANCISCO||- 3||Green Bay||45-31|
|NEW ENGLAND||- 9.5||Houston||41-28|
|1-20||San Francisco||- 4||ATLANTA||28-24|
|Baltimore||+ 8||NEW ENGLAND||28-13|
NFL Playoff Betting Favorites are 6-3-1 against the spread so far and note the only two upset winners this post-season have been the last two games played by the AFC champion Baltimore Ravens ... hmmm!
THE COLLEGE B-BALL MID-WEEK REPORT
#1 DUKE (16-1, 3-1 ACC) at #25 MIAMI (13-3, 4-0 ACC) - 7 p.m. ET,
Hey, it's not every day that the team on top of the conference standings sits at #25 in the Associated Press poll while the club sitting third in the league standings is ranked numero uno in the land - but that's the deal here as top-ranked Duke looks to hand the Miami Hurricanes their first league loss of this ACC season.
How's Mike Krzyzewski's club gonna get "mission accomplished" here?
The visiting Blue Devils need to get Miami point guard Shane Larkin into a real bump-and-grind game here and make "Barry's kid" pay for every hoop/assist/steak he gets here and so expect Coach K to send waves of fresh bodies at Larkin.
On the other end of the floor, the Devils continue to live-and-die by the three-point shot - note that G Seth Curry has nailed 42-of-92 triple tries this year (a sizzling 46 percent) and so getting Curry to navigate his way around the screens set by Mason Plumlee and mates is critical here.
Gut feeling is this Duke team needs to drill a dozen-or-so trifectas here and so keep eyes peeled also on G Quinn Cook (24-of-59 treys made this year).
Keep in mind this Miami team can defend: The 'Canes rank 22nd nationally in points per game allowed and the tandem of Kenny Kadji (26 blocked shots) and Julian Gamble (23 blocks) can make things real sticky in the paint where the aforementioned Plumlee likes to set up shop.
In other NCAA Basketball News & Notes concerning tonight's action ...There are three other Top 10 teams in action evening:
#7 Indiana (16-2, 4-1 Big 10) hosts Penn State at 7 p.m. ET and the Hoosiers are looking to KO the Nittanies for the second time in 17 days. Tom Crean's club blasted 16-point home dog Penn State 74-51 back on January 7th and now the Big 10's best team in terms of defensive field-goal percentage (37 percent) will look to short-circuit the Nittany Lions backcourt starring D.J. Newbill and Jermaine Marshall each of whom average just over 15 ppg.
#8 Florida (14-2, 4-0 SEC) visits archrival Georgia tonight at 8 p.m. ET and the mighty Gators look to keep up a dominant form as Florida's won all four of its SEC games by at least 21 points ... yowie! The Gators absolutely pummeled the Dawgs 77-44 back on January 9th when the 19 ½-point home favs charged out to an 11-0 lead and forced 19 Georgia turnovers. Whom to watch here? How about Florida junior G Scottie Wilbekin who was a major stat-sheet stuffer with 13 points and 10 assists in last weekend's 83-52 blowout win against Missouri. Hey, maybe the Gators are the country's best overall defensive squad as was mentioned the other night on one of those ESPN highlight shows!
Finally, #9 Butler (16-2, 3-0 Atlantic-10) plays its first game following that epic 64-63 buzzer-beating win against 2-point road fav Gonzaga last Saturday night as the Bulldogs are at LaSalle at 7 p.m. ET. Butler -- again -- will be without uber-talented shooter Rotnei Clarke here (he's averaging a team-best 16.3 ppg) with that still-sore neck but G Roosevelt Jones should gets lots of attention after that steal-and-hoop that beat the Zags the other night at a frenzied Hinkle Field House. One note regarding Butler: It better get its free-throw woes straightened away as the Dawgs shot a horrid 12-of-23 from the charity stripe in the win against Gonzaga.
NOTE: More Super Bowl 47 coverage plus NCAA and NBA notes/previews too all this week right here in Jim Sez!