Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 8:00 AM
It’s generally good advice to tell do-it-yourself handicappers to only bite off what they can chew in college basketball. There are a few hundred teams on the board. Only the most professional of professionals have time to do all teams justice.
But, I want to give you an idea today you may never have heard of before in terms of picking which conferences to handicap. The general theories, which are sound enough, are:
*Focus on the conferences you follow most closely as a fan
*Focus on the conferences that are on TV a lot so you can scout the games
*Focus on the conferences in your local geographic area because of media coverage
Sorry, but if you live in the Northeast, I’m just not going to trust your opinion on the Pac 12 or the Big West. If you live in San Diego, you just aren’t getting enough media coverage of the Colonial or Sun Belt for your opinion to matter. Clearly, you need to find your sweet spots and handicap intelligently. Nothing wrong with that.
Today, I’m going to suggest a new approach here in my College of Advanced Handicapping. You regulars know I emphasize GAMEBREAKERS and PLAYMAKERS and quality COACHING. I suggest that, instead of thinking about geography, GO OUT AND FIND THOSE PLAYERS AND COACHES WHO IMPACT THE GAME!
I would argue that the best conference in the nation to handicap is the one where GAMEBREAKERS, PLAYMAKERS, and smart coaches are covering the most spreads. Maybe that’s the ACC. Maybe that’s the Big 12. Maybe that’s a lesser league like the Horizon or the Missouri Valley.
If you were with me in college football last year, you know that I cashed a string of huge 200-Unit winners on or against teams who were probably off your personal radar. That’s not because I necessarily knew those conferences like the back of my hand. It’s because I knew how to recognize mismatches that were so one-sided oddsmakers had no chance of getting the number right.
With that in mind, I encourage you this week to:
*Study individual player stats at major sports websites to find out who the highest impact players are this year in terms of scoring and rebounding.
*Study the against-the-spread records of the teams those GAMEBREAKERS play for to see if the market is up to speed with the talent level.
*Study ATS records across the full scope of the sport to see if there are any positives or negatives that line up with what you already know about coaching reputations.
I’m not going to give you specifics here because I will have some very big plays in the next two weeks (and next two months!) that are directly tied to what I’ve discussed today. It wouldn’t be fair to my seasonal customers or daily paying clients to announce those big money teams (or fades) to you. I can assure you that they’re out there. Your homework here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting is to go out and find them.
The best conference to handicap is the one where you can make the most money!
If you’re new to basketball handicapping right now because you’ve been so focused on football, daily assistance is available right here at this website for those of you with a major credit card. You can also sign up for seasonal packages to get the most bang for your buck.
We’ll talk more basketball and football through the week. I can assure you I’m looking forward to handicapping the NFL Conference Championship games this weekend featuring San Francisco at Atlanta and Baltimore at New England. But, it’s very important for handicappers and sports bettors to transition intelligently to basketball for this run through March Madness. Don’t lose your football profits making dumb basketball bets! Utilize the principals of Advanced Sports Betting to keep building your bankrolls.