Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Sunday, January 6, 2013 at 4:00 PM
My clients and I have had a historic season in college football. I plan to finish off that amazing campaign with 200 units of profit in Monday Night’s BCS Championship game featuring Alabama and Notre Dame. You regulars know that I can’t release my official selection here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting. That wouldn’t be fair to my paying clients. I will explain my thought process for this big game in a way that will hopefully help you do-it-yourselfers make a smart choice.
KEYS TO PICKING THE BCS POINTSPREAD WINNER
PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS
I always start with this because you want to invest your money on the team in best position to control its own destiny with the most dynamic forces on the field. What makes Alabama-Notre Dame particularly challenging is that the PLAYMAKERS aren’t in the traditional positions. Neither team has a particularly lethal quarterback. Both can move the ball on the ground yet lack a Heisman Trophy caliber running back. If you’ve been watching media coverage over the past week, you’ve come to realize that:
*Notre Dame’s true PLAYMAKERS are on defense
*Alabama’s true PLAY-BUILDERS are on the offensive line!
The point of attack always matters in college football. It may matter more here than in any other important game in recent memory because of the star athletes that will be going to war in the trenches.
THE PREPARATION FACTOR
Usually I’m talking to you about THE MOTIVATION FACTOR in this spot. That’s obviously irrelevant in a national championship game. Both teams will be at peak motivation. Handicappers and sports bettors must try to determine which team will be better coached and better prepared for the challenges at hand. Who will bring creative wrinkles to offensive play calling or defensive schematics? Does Alabama coach Nick Saban’s experience under the spotlight give him an edge here? Will Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly open up the playbook more than he’s done this season out of necessity? In a game with a low Las Vegas Over/Under, any creative decision that leads to offensive, defensive, or special teams points could have a huge impact.
Whenever a game is being heavily bet by the public, you have to make a proper determination as to whether or not the pointspread properly reflects the differences between teams. Is Alabama really 9-10 points better than Notre Dame? Or, are they just 6-7 points better and the line is inflated because of the SEC’s recent championship history. Maybe Alabama is really 12-13 points better but the line has been reduced because the public loves betting on Notre Dame!
Advanced Sports Bettors must aim to get the best of the number whenever they make a bet. If there are 2-3 misplaced points in the Vegas number, you want to put those points in your favor.
100-Units on the team side
50-Units on the Over/Under
50-Units on a Side/Total Parlay
If you’re having trouble making a final decision, help from The Dean of Sports Handicapping is always just a couple of clicks away.
Thanks once again to all of you who have been studying and working so hard within my College of Advanced Sports Betting coursework this year. This will be the final college football game of the season. But, we still have a lot to talk about in the NFL playoffs (look for a new discussion later this week) and in college basketball as we transition toward the build-up to March Madness. There’s no offseason for winners!
Who will be Monday Night’s BCS winner? I hope today’s lesson has helped you find the answer.