Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, December 28, 2012 at 3:50 PM
We’re now deep enough into the college football bowl season to start evaluating potential market mistakes regarding conference strength. I’m going to outline a method you should use when grading the various leagues yourself, as we gear up for what I’m hoping will be a 5-0 Saturday on the busiest bowl day we’ve seen so far this season.
To get started, you need to:
*Write down a list of all the bowl conferences
*Grab a list of final scores from all the bowls that have been played so far
*Find the boxscores for any games that you didn’t personally watch on TV
Now, using your list of conferences, I want you to go game-by-game and put a big plus sign or minus sign by any conference that surprised you with its performance. For some games, you won’t put down anything. East Carolina and Louisiana-Lafayette played to expectations in the New Orleans Bowl for example. It would be hard to say that the market has a misread in that game about either Conference USA or the Sun Belt. What about the others?
And, there may be a game or two where the final score is so misleading that you grade the other way. For example, Duke hung very tough with Cincinnati in the Belk Bowl Thursday Night, and easily could have won that game outright as a big underdog. One could argue that the Big East might have been a bit overrated even though Cincinnati ended up sleazing one of the luckiest covers in bowl history. As a handicapper and sports bettor…you need to be thinking already about whether or not the ACC has been underrated, and the Big East overrated given the flow of that game, if not the result.
I would also encourage you to put down TWO plus signs or minus signs if you believe the result of one bowl might be signaling a dramatic misread. An example that jumps to mind here would be the Holiday Bowl. Baylor was so impressive in their destruction of UCLA, and the Bruins so disappointing, that we may have a case where the Big 12 has been very underrated by oddsmakers and the Wise Guys…while the Pac 12 has been very overrated (Arizona’s poor effort vs. Nevada would back that up, though Washington did play well in a tough loss to Boise State). I’m not going to discuss particular upcoming bowls to protect the information for my clients. But, I can tell you that’s on my radar moving forward.
Six different conferences and one Independent will be represented in the 5-game monster slate on Saturday (CUSA, Mountain West, Pac 12, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, plus Navy as the Independent).
I don’t mean to suggest that I’m only making picks based on conference strengths or weaknesses displayed so far. I’m still very much on top of GAMEBREAKERS and PLAYMAKERS, as well as THE MOTIVATON FACTOR in every bowl that’s yet to be played. I may well be backing a Pac 12 team aggressively even after UCLA struggled. I may well soon be fading one or more Big 12 teams even though Baylor played great. The point today is that we’ve now reached the point where you must monitor the potential for market misreads about conferences. You’ll make smarter decisions with your picks and your unit ratings by doing so.
If you need any help in Saturday’s 5-game slate, Sunday’s NFL season finales, Monday’s 4-game slate, or the annual 6-game New Year’s Day extravaganza, you can purchase my top plays here at this very website with your major credit card. I also have a great rate that takes you through the rest of football.
My College of Advanced Sports Betting will be back again very soon to discuss nuances of THE MOTIVATON FACTOR for the unique handicapping challenges that exist in Week 17 of the NFL season. See you then.