Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 10:00 AM
Most of the sports betting talk I’ve been listening to out here in Las Vegas the past few days has involved the “right way” to bet all the games where playoff contenders are playing non-contenders. There are typically two rules of thumb in these games that are in stark contrast.
*The public thinks you should take all the “must win” teams because they’re going to be able to name the score and the pointspread won’t matter.
*Professional wagerers think you should take most or all the dogs because the lines adjust way too much against “must-win” teams.
Normally, smart money beats dumb money…and you should be looking for line value in these situations. But, we all know that sportsbooks have been CRUSHED in many late season NFL weekends when all the good teams did show up to take care of business, while many bad teams barely bothered to put on their uniforms.
Let’s take a look back at what happened LAST year in Week 16 with teams favored by seven points or more.
BIG WEEK 16 FAVORITES IN 2011
Green Bay (-13) beat Chicago 35-21
Baltimore (-10.5) only beat Cleveland 20-14 (non-cover)
Pittsburgh (-10) crushed St. Louis 27-0
Carolina (-9) beat Tampa Bay 48-16
Tennessee (-8.5) only beat Jacksonville 23-17 (non-cover)
New England (-7.5) only beat Miami 27-24 (non-cover)
Houston (-7) lost outright to Indianapolis 19-16 (non-cover)
New Orleans (-7) beat Atlanta 45-16
That’s four covers for favorites, including three with blowout margins of 27, 29, and 32 points. But, that’s not enough for a winning record because of four underdog covers. Whichever approach you took with favorites of seven or more last year went 4-4 and you juiced out.
That’s worth remembering as you study the Sunday card. Blindly betting all the favorites is risky business. But, if you focus on the very best indicator stats for blowouts, there are some four touchdown covers out there to be found. Many bettors were disappointed exactly one year ago because they were riding ALL the big favorites or ALL the big dogs. But, those who focused on finding the very best blowout opportunities (like cold weather Pittsburgh hosting a dome team from the other conference) earned a tidy profit.
This week’s favorites of seven or more as I write this are…
BIG WEEK 16 FAVORITES IN 2012
Green Bay (-12.5) over Tennessee
Carolina (-8.5) over Oakland
New England (-14.5) over Jacksonville
Indianapolis (-7) over Kansas City
Houston (-7.5) over Minnesota
Denver (-13) over Cleveland
You regulars know I’m probably on one of those for a major release this weekend because I know how to combine an edge in the area of PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS with THE MOTIVATION FACTOR to find pointspread blowouts. I won’t go into specifics here because I need to protect the eventual release for my clients. I would encourage all of you students of my College of Advanced Sports Betting to apply the principals to those six games to try to find the best option. But, I would like to alert you to the possibility that the best blowout scenario of the weekend actually exists in a different game!
I can think of at least four other “motivational mismatches” at smaller spreads that could show up on my final card. This weekend is ripe for blowouts if you know what you’re looking for. And, a weekend that’s ripe for blowouts is ripe for big money Las Vegas bets.
Best of luck to you throughout this final sports betting weekend before Christmas. I’m glad I’ve been able to help so many do-it-yourselfers this year with our coursework. If you need some help making your final choices in the NFL and the college bowls the next few days, you can purchase my top plays right here at this website with your major credit card. I also have great rates that take you through the rest of the bowls and the NFL playoffs.
Back again soon to talk more about the college bowls and the road to the Super Bowl in the NFL.