Vegas Sports Masters Blog
Back to Blog Home…

Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Wednesday, December 12, 2012 at 4:00 PM

Now that you’ve done your preliminary work for betting this year’s college football bowl games, as outlined in my two earlier College of Advanced Sports Betting articles, it’s time to dig deeper. You know who the PLAYMAKERS are. You know who is and isn’t motivated to play well. Now, you need to see the chess game on the field as it’s about to play out.

Research the team stats and national rankings for the following:

Rush Offense

Pass Offense

Rush Defense

Pass Defense

There are very few teams who are great at everything, particularly this season. In fact, many of the early bowl games will feature teams who have glaring weaknesses in at least one of these categories, and aren’t particularly great at anything.

Once you know the strengths and weaknesses of each team, the strategies are fairly obvious.

*Take a GOOD RUSH OFFENSE vs. a BAD RUSH DEFENSE, particularly if one of your key PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS is a running back or a running quarterback. Think of what Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel of Texas A&M did this year vs. bad rush defenses. That’s what good running teams will do in the bowls. You know all running quarterbacks watched the Heisman ceremonies!

*Take a GOOD PASS OFFENSE vs. a BAD PASS DEFENSE, particularly if one of your key PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS is a throwing quarterback or an NFL-bound wide receiver. Offenses with matchup advantages in the air light up the scoreboard in bowl games. It’s an annual tradition. (Note, look to bet OVER the total in these games as well, no matter how high the Vegas line).

*Take a GOOD RUSH DEFENSE vs. ANY BAD OFFENSE. History has made it clear that defenses who are strong against the run will shut down any struggling offense in a bowl game. The opponent CAN’T run. If they’re a bad offense overall, they won’t be able to pass either. This is going to be a squash.

This is where advanced handicapping really takes things to the next level. When you can see the chess pieces moving after already listing the star offensive threats and developing an understanding of THE MOTIVATION FACTOR, the best options will literally jump off the page at you.

I can already tell you now that my 100-Unit bowl blowouts and 200-Unit Game of the Year entries are strong qualifiers by these standards. You’ll hear me talking about 100% win scenarios and 90% cover scenarios in a way that may strike you as bold. Once you’ve done the handicapping work, those statements aren’t bold at all…just reflections of bowl handicapping reality.

My regular season record on 200-Unit college plays sure backs that up! And, the motivational dynamics created by all the coaching changes makes bowl blowouts even easier to find.

If you missed my earlier articles on Advanced Sports Betting for the bowls, here are the links.

Bowl Preparation for Sports Bettors

Evaluating the Motivation Factor

I’ll have one more edition of coursework regarding a general bowl theme before the postseason officially gets started this Saturday with the New Mexico Bowl and the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Then, as the postseason progresses, we’ll read and react on the fly to early action.  Remember that you can purchase my entire bowl package at a great price right here at this website with your major credit card.

Are you ready to win? You’d better get ready because the bowls start this Saturday!

Join the discussion


Forgot password

Keep me logged in