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Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Saturday, December 1, 2012 at 3:00 PM

The first NFL Sunday in December is usually a signal for sports bettors to start paying serious attention to the weather in the North and Midwest. Bone chilling temperatures, snow, sleet, and freezing winds can wreak havoc on NFL offenses. As the league has gone to more wide-open passing attacks, the potential for weather to kill offense is even greater.

With that in mind, let’s check out the late-week forecasts for Sunday games in what have traditionally been cold weather cities. Remember, we’re looking for BONE CHILLING temperatures and bad weather.

Seattle at Chicago: temperatures near 60, it might rain (near 60 in December?!!)

Minnesota at Green Bay: sunny, temperatures near 50 (where’s the frozen tundra?)

Arizona at the NY Jets: mid 50’s, it might rain

Carolina at Kansas City: sunny, mid 60’s

Jacksonville at Buffalo: mid 50’s, a chance for drizzle (this is Buffalo, in December!)

Tampa Bay at Denver: sunny, mid 60’s (Tampa conditions in Denver)

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: high 50’s.

We’re looking at crisp September afternoons on the first Sunday in December. It’s going to be a great day for baseball in Kansas City and Denver.

Advanced Handicappers may be losing an important arrow in their quill if global warming takes away the severe weather conditions that often helped beat slow-reacting oddsmakers in December pro football. This is disappointing to say the least. Betting on the teams best suited to cold weather can’t do you any good if there isn’t much cold weather. And, even if things start to cool down…we’ll only have a couple of weeks of opportunities rather than a full month.

I will encourage you to focus on the following even when temperatures are in the 50’s and 60’s:



There are several turf fields in the North and Midwest that play as hard as rock when temperatures are freezing. Put them in warmer temps with drizzle, and they turn to muck. Be on the lookout for these possibilities in December in New England, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Chicago, Green Bay, and Kansas City (and possibly Washington and Baltimore). Poor footing leads to Unders, and takes away the ability for passing offenses to make long connections downfield.

Wind is typically underrated by oddsmakers (who only learned about it after sharps were seen betting aggressively when conditions were windy). You still need to watch this. The last thing you want to do is lay points with a passing team in swirling or high winds. You definitely want to bet against indoor teams who aren’t used to playing in high winds too. My guess right now is that the best weather-related bets in December will involve the wind rather than arctic conditions. Heck, arctic conditions aren’t even what they used to be.

It’s always nice here in Las Vegas, though summers are starting to get scary. That’s another story for another time. As you enjoy December weather wherever you’re living, be sure to make adjustments to your typical late season strategies as warranted. The heart of Advanced Sports Betting is knowing how to read and react on the fly. Moderate temperatures in Chicago and Buffalo on December 2nd are a fly in the ointment that can’t go unnoticed.

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