Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Wednesday, November 28, 2012 at 11:00 PM
College football conference championship games can be very tricky for sports bettors. I’ve had great success over the years focusing on a few key factors that I will outline for you today. Please use them as you consider Louisville-Rutgers Thursday in a game that will determine the Big East champion, in Friday’s MAC and Pac 12 championships, and in Saturday’s championship games in the SEC, ACC, Big 10, and Conference USA.
KEYS TO HANDICAPPING COLLEGE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES
*The better team usually covers. You’ve heard the adage that “the team that wins straight up will usually cover the spread too.” This is very true in conference championship games, which commonly see underdog upsets or favorite blowouts. Be very careful with what you perceive as “value” underdogs. Don’t hope “they can keep it close.” Only bet dogs you think are going to win. Sometimes the dog truly is the better team and the Vegas line is wrong because it reflects public sentiment rather than football reality. On the other hand, have no fear betting favorites you think have a big edge in PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS regardless of the spread. I can’t tell you how many big favorites I’ve had over the years who had their full game spreads covered by halftime on the way to routs.
*Arrogant favorites can get knocked off. About the only time a clearly superior team doesn’t win is if they’ve been overwhelmed by positive press in recent days. We all remember instances where great teams got caught flat-footed in their conference championship game because they came in overconfident and unprepared. They started thinking too soon about the BCS Championship game (this is a warning to you ALABAMA). They started thinking too early about a Rose Bowl berth that hadn’t been expected before the season (this is a warning to you STANFORD). A team that wants to send a message can win its conference championship game by four touchdowns or more. A team that’s decided it has nothing to prove any more can be in for a very rude awakening.
*Strengths determine Over/Under results. By that…I mean that teams with great offenses will play high scoring conference championship games that go Over their Las Vegas totals. Teams with great defenses will throw shutouts or near shutouts that stay Under their Las Vegas totals. Oddsmakers will try to adjust, but they fail to adjust often enough that you can take advantage of it. Don’t limit yourself to team side options this week!
Here’s this week’s Championship schedule...
Big East Championship (unofficial): Louisville at Rutgers (this conference doesn’t have a championship game, but the winner of this game will win the league).
MAC Championship: Kent State vs. Northern Illinois (played in Detroit)
Pac 12 Championship: UCLA at Stanford
CUSA Championship: Central Florida at Tulsa
SEC Championship: Alabama vs. Georgia (played in Atlanta)
ACC Championship: Florida State vs. Georgia Tech (played in Charlotte)
Big 10 Championship: Nebraska vs. Wisconsin (played in Indianapolis)
I have several big plays planned for this weekend in both college and pro football. If you’d like some assistance finding the best plays on the board, your major credit card will be accepted each and every game day at this website. I do what I can to help you do-it-yourselfers trying to learn from my College of Advanced Sports Betting. It’s great that so many of you have improved your personal portfolios with my strategies. It’s easy to supplement your work with my game day releases if you’d like to do so.
I trust you’ll perform like a champion this week!