Submitted by Jim Hurley on Saturday, November 17, 2012 at 2:14 PM
You probably already know this by now but ...This is the final week of NFL byes as Minnesota, the New York Giants, Seattle and Tennessee all are idle on this Sunday-before-Thanksgiving and so next weekend we'll have a full slate of 16 games although they will be spread out from Turkey Day (3 games) through the Monday Nighter.
Just thought we would take a moment or two here to get you some pointspread-related information regarding these NFL byes and what teams have done versus the vig the week after their bye:
Note that NFL teams in their week-after-the-bye are 13-11 ATS (against the spread) -yes, we might have first believed that mark to have been better too -and keep in mind there are four teams in action here in Week 11 play here that had last weekend off (that's Arizona, Cleveland, Green Bay and Washington) and so we'll see how this quartet fares with three of the four playing this Sunday on the NFL road (with Washington, of course, home to NFC East rival Philadelphia).
If you wish to break things down, than note NFL teams off a bye laying points are 5-7 against the odds while teams taking points off their bye week are 8-4 -and this week the Cardinals and Browns are snapping up significant points off their bye. Just sayin'!
If an NFL team is playing at home off its bye week, than so far these clubs have registered a shoddy 4-8 ATS mark while teams playing away following the bye week are 9-3 and, again, there's Arizona, Cleveland and Green Bay all playing on the NFL road following their respective byes. Hmmm.
No doubt one of the reasons some of the post-bye favorites did not cash was because of timing:
Note that heavyweight teams such as Pittsburgh (just 16 points scored in a post-be week non-cover win against Philadelphia) and San Francisco (see 24-all draw with St. Louis last weekend) were not always in synch in their post-bye games plus that head injury suffered by SF quarterback Alex Smith didn't help either.
Gotta say the single-best post-bye week performance turned in -so far -in this year's NFL was that 30-9 win by Miami as one-point pups against the host New York Jets. No doubt the Fish sure "went to school" on the Jets' wobbly special teams and so that extra prep/film work came in real handy!
Still, keep in mind that over the years NFL byes have not followed any real patterns except for the fact the Philadelphia Eagles had won all 13 of their week-after-the-bye games SU (straight-up) under head coach Andy Reid but that streak was snapped back in Week 8 with a dismal 30-17 home loss versus the 3-point favorite Atlanta Falcons.
Wanted you to chew on and digest some of these bye and post-bye spread stats -and now we'll see if this year's trends "hold on" this weekend 'round the league.
Jim Hurley and his Network of Handicappers and Bloggers have all the NFL Week 11 Side & Totals Winners plus there's NCAA Football, NBA and NCAA Basketball Winners each and every day -so just climb aboard right now with America's #1 Handicapper. Check in with us on Game Days either right here online or at our exclusive toll-free telephone # of 1-800-323-4453 for all the winners and note the check-in times are after 1 p.m. ET for weeknight action and after 10 a.m. ET on Saturdays and Sundays. It's been a monster 2012 Football Season for America's #1 Handicapper and it's only gonna get better with a big NFL Week 11 card here and all the Thanksgiving Day/Weekend winners straight ahead!
NFL WEEK 11 SUNDAY AFTERNOON KEY SHOWDOWNS
INDIANAPOLIS (6-3) at NEW ENGLAND (6-3) -4:25 p.m. ET, NBC
Maybe it ain't exactly like the "old days" when a fellow named Peyton Manning was Public Enemy No. 1 in/around New England but give these Patriots fan enough time and they are sure to work up an attitude towards Colts rookie QB Andrew Luck!
The fact of the matter is the Colts "are back' even if Mr. Manning is no longer part of the mix and here expect Pats head coach Bill Belichick to unveil a few new looks at Luck who threw three INTs in his debut game in Chicago and has thrown only six interceptions in his next nine games.
If Luck -who earlier this month threw for an NFL rookie-record 433 yards against Miami -has his way than WR Reggie Wayne will be snagging a slew of long balls and do keep in mind New England's defense has surrendered 19 aerial scores this season.
However, expect lots of inside blitzes by the Pats who need to hurry Luck and also protect a shaky secondary -and let's go on record to state we believe New England will score at least one defensive touchdown here.
If the Patriots' pass-first offense -which leads the league with 33.2 points per game -has a game plan in mind here it's to get the ball out to slot receiver Wes Welker and TE Rob Gronkowski some 20-to-25 times in all and simply see if the Colts' DBs/LBs can stop 'em. Note that Gronkowski has 17 catches (5 TDs) in the last three games alone.
The Las Vegas oddsmakers have placed the Pats as solid 9-point favs and New England's failed to cover all three of its games this year in which the spread was this high or higher.
Spread Notes -New England is 5-4 ATS so far this season and that includes three spread setbacks in four tries at home with the lone cover coming in a 31-21 triumph over 6-point dog Denver way back on Oct. 7th. Meanwhile, Indianapolis rides into this clash on a four-game spread winning streak and the Colts overall are a spiffy 6-3 against the odds this season.
GREEN BAY (6-3) at DETROIT (4-5) -1 p.m. ET, Fox
This marks the first of two meetings between these NFC North "pals" over the course of the next four weeks and a mere split may not be good enough for the Packers to win the division while a mere split also probably won't be enough for the Lions to stake their claim to a wild card berth.
Still, first things first here and the Pack comes in off its bye week having averaged nearly 32 ppg during the current four-game SU winning streak and this despite the fact Green Bay currently ranks only 12th in the NFL in passing offense (249.3 yards per game) and just 23rd league-wide in rushing offense (that's at 99.7 ypg).
No doubt Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers -who owns a career mark of 6-1 against the Lions with 16 TDs and only 4 INTs -hasn't had his full complement of targets week-in and week-out this year and now WR Jordy Nelson (ankle/foot/hamstring) apparently will be a game-time decision for this pre-Thanksgiving Week tilt.
The Lions have been a slow-starting bunch all year long and that could cost 'em here even if WR Calvin Johnson (12 catches for 207 yards in last week's 34-24 loss in Minnesota) piles up more fantasy points.
Spread Notes -Green Bay's 4-5 vig-wise this year (and that's after going a combined 35-18-1 ATS the three previous seasons) and note the Packers have covered nine of their last 12 head-to-head matchups with the Lions. Meanwhile, Detroit is 4-5 against the Las Vegas prices this year although the Lions have notched spread wins in four of their last five games.
SAN DIEGO (4-5) at DENVER (6-3) -4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Hey, what's working these days with the Denver Broncos ... or, better yet, what's not working? The only team in the AFC West with a winning record these days has won/covered four games in a row with aforementioned QB Manning hot stuff ever since he turned the tables on the Chargers back on Oct. 15th when Denver overcame a 24-0 halftime deficit to win 35-24.
Manning's completed nearly 70 percent of his passes this year and now he's fresh off a 301-yard performance in last week's 36-14 romp in Carolina. Throw in the fact that Denver special teams star Trindon Holliday has scored TDs in each of the past two weeks (although you saw what he did with the ball prior to crossing the goal line with last week's 76-yard punt bring-back!) and this defense piled up a dozen sacks in those back-to-back road wins in Cincinnati and Carolina and so everything's just cheeky these days for the Broncos.
So, do the slumping Chargers -losers of four of their last five games -have a shot here as TD-plus pups?
They do if QB Philip Rivers doesn't force any bonehead throws here -and remember the Chargers are 5-1 SU behind Rivers in their last six trips into the mile high city but none of them came against Manning ... of course!
Spread Notes -Denver is 6-3 vig-wise this year and that includes the current four-game spread winning streak. Overall, the Broncos are 4-9-4 ATS in all head-to-head battles with San Diego while dating back to the start of the 2004 campaign. On the flip side, the SD Chargers are 4-5 ATS overall this season and just 3-6 versus the vig as pups since the start of last season.
NOTE: Catch our Sunday Night Preview (that's Baltimore at Pittsburgh) and our NFL Week 11 Monday Night Preview (that's Chicago at San Francisco) in tomorrow's edition of Jim Sez!