Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, November 16, 2012 at 10:00 AM
I’m happy to report that my sports betting tips will now be appearing several days a week here at this website as we’ve adjusted the schedule to allow me to read and react to more breaking stories. In the news today of course are the multiple quarter back injuries in the NFL.
NFL QUARTERBACK INJURIES
Alex Smith: concussion, is likely to play Sunday
Michael Vick: concussion, is likely out for awhile
Jay Cutler: concussion, is likely out for awhile
Ben Roethlisberger: rib/shoulder, is definitely out for awhile
Advanced handicappers must make proper adjustments for quarterback injuries so you can make smart bets. Here are the questions to ask:
KEYS TO CONSIDER
*Was the injured quarterback a PLAYMAKER, or just a “game manager?” You regulars know I’m emphasize PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS in my handicapping. Losing a high impact quarterback who throws a lot of touchdown passes is worth quite a few points in the Power Ratings. I believe oddsmakers consistently underestimate this factor. If the quarterback was just a game manager, then his backup really doesn’t represent much of a drop-off because most backups are game managers who play it safe.
*Was the injured quarterback a motivational force for his team? Or, will the team likely respond with more motivation now that his backup is in the game? This can be tricky if you’re a casual fan. But, if you’re an advanced analyst who watches all the games on satellite, you can get a good read. Some quarterbacks are the heart and soul of their teams. Injuries cost those offenses dearly. Other quarterbacks are a cancer on the team. Losing them actually helps!
*Is the backup capable of keeping his team within striking distance? When asking “how much is a quarterback worth” in the pointspread, the practical reality is that you’re asking what’s the point differential between the starter and the backup. If Tom Brady’s backup was Peyton Manning, Brady could break his leg and it wouldn’t hurt the team much. How good are Colin Kaepernick (if he’s called on), Nick Foles, Jason Campbell, and Byron Leftwich? Be sure you’re spending time focusing on who IS there and what HE is going to do, rather than dwelling too much on who isn’t there.
I’m still deciding as I write this what my final card will look like in the NFL this weekend. I may or may not be involved in one of the games involving a backup quarterback. I can tell you up front that the blowout scenarios I’m most focused on concern other talent and motivational factors. Perhaps injury developments have added a nice kicker to what had already been on the radar for a big play.
I just wanted to make sure today that YOU were thinking properly about your NFL sports betting with the mainstream media focused so much on all the injuries. Vick, Roethlisberger, and Cutler have all been media magnets in the past. There’s been wall-to-wall coverage of their injuries this week.
Be sure to check this website daily for access to may top football and basketball plays. Have your major credit card ready so you can take care of business quickly. See you again soon.