Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, November 2, 2012 at 11:06 AM
The week is off to an outstanding start with a 5-0 record in NFL and college football, and that includes a 2-0 start (+35 units) for my 16th annual 38-game November to Remember package, and a 2-1 beginning (+60 units) in NBA basketball. Not bragging-just stating the facts in my world, where the score is kept with money and nothing else counts.
My complete record for each of my services is listed below and it represents just the beginning of what I believe will be a giant week that includes another winning 200-unit College Blowout Game of the Week, a game in which I am a perfect 5-0 this season (all released the past five Saturdays) and a knockout 100-unit NFL bet Sunday with a team that grades out on top in 39 of the 42 elements I use to handicap NFL games.
This is a weekend in which the BCS element is in play in at least a dozen games, but none more important or challenging for both teams and bettors than the Alabama (8-0) at LSU (7-1), Oregon (8-0) at Southern California (6-2) and Oklahoma State (5-2) at Kansas State (8-0). An LSU loss (the Tigers have lost at home but eight times in the past 11 years) knocks them out of the BCS picture while Oregon gets a chance to strut its stuff and gain the respect it has not yet received.
I have no opinion on the Kansas State-Oklahoma State game but have strong opinions on the other two games and will be releasing them as 25-unit plays as part of a 3-team, 75-unit package that also includes Nebraska (6-2) at Michigan State (5-4)
It has been extremely difficult to accurately access the big money moves in Saturday's college football game, because in most instances it appears the big betting syndicates, i.e. wiseguys, are basically trying to manipulate the numbers up and down in order to open the door to middles betting. In order to not offer misleading money move information I will ignore that factor this weekend.
This Week's Financial Report
BEST BETS FOOTBALL INVESTMENT CLUB
11/1...10 Units...Ohio University (-16) 45, Eastern Michigan 14 (W)
10/29...10 Units...49ers-Cardinals Under 38 ½ Points (W)
CHAIRMAN'S FOOTBALL INVESTMENT CLUB
11/1...25 Units...Chargers (-9) 31, Chiefs 13 (W)
PERSONAL BEST FOOTBALL INVESTMENT CLUB
10/29...50 Units...49ers (-7) 24, Cardinals 3 (W)
NOVEMBER TO REMEMBER PACKAGE
11/1...25 Units...Chargers (-9) 31, Chiefs 13 (W)
11/1...10 Units...Miami (+1 ½) 30, Virginia Tech 12 (W)
BEST BETS BASKETALL INVESTMENT CLUB
11/30...50 Units...Cavaliers (-5) 94, Wizards 84 (W)
10/31...15 Units...Clippers (-3 ½) 101, Grizzlies 92 (W)
10/31...5 Units...Spurs-Hornets Under 187 ½ (L)
All 200-Unit Plays Have 100% Chance To Win & 90% Chance To Cover
As noted, I am going for my sixth consecutive 200-unit College Blowout Winner Saturday and that means I will again be releasing a team that has a 100% chance to win straight up and at least a 90% chance to cover the number. Thus far this season, it has been 100% in both categories.
The reaction I get from bookmakers and handicappers when I say-"a 100% chance to win straight up"-is quite interesting and most will say there is no such animal in the college football world. Well, they are wrong and to some extent are operating in the stone age of analysis. There are college teams playing almost every week that simply cannot lose. Of course, covering is another matter.
I can make these bold statements about winning because five years ago-after five years of research and study, using a universe of more than 9,000 games-I found the five universal elements that produce these blowout games, and it has worked with deadly efficiency since then. I am confident it will continue to work Saturday and my record says you can bet this game with confidence-a 100% chance to win straight up, at least a 90% chance to cover.
Click here to get this game for $100 and receive my 50-Unit College Game of the Week as a FREE Bonus
No Rose Colored Glasses When Handicapping NFL
The most efficient way to lose one's shirt is to fall in love with an NFL team, and bet on it regardless of who it plays, or what the betting line is. Winning in the NFL requires accepting the reality of what is, and what is right now. No rose colored glasses, please.
I bring this up because of how I released the San Diego Chargers (-9) over the Kansas City Chiefs Thursday night as a 25-unit play, instead of the required 50-units or even 100 units they merited. San Diego graded out as a safe play at 50 units and even won the risk vs. reward award at the 100-unit level. So, why just 25 units?
As a handicapper I have an obligation not only to win for my clients but to protect them and there was no way I was going to put them at risk against a talented but unpredictable team such as the Chargers. How can one go all in on a team that blew double-digit leads in the second half and lost to New Orleans and Denver? How can one go all in on a team that lost 7-6 in a miserable performance at Cleveland just last week?
And, yes, how can one go all in on a team that had scored but one offensive touchdown in its last 10 quarters of play, even while playing the worst team in the NFL? If you can lose to Cleveland, you are eligible to lose to the Little Sisters of Mercy.
Just wanted you to know why I did what I did in winning a 25-unit play when, had I wanted to assume the risk, and put my clients at additional risk, it would have been easy to do so.
In answer to an unrelated question, teams from the National Football Conference and American Football Conference have met 32 times this season and the NFC has ruled the day by a 20-12 margin. Does that mean the NFL is the better conference? I really do not have an answer to that but it is of note futures betting on the Super Bowl has the NFC a 3-point favorite over the AFC.