Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, October 18, 2012 at 7:43 PM
If you’ve been riding my sports betting hot streak in college football this season, you know I’ve been exploiting a lot of very bad coaches. Well, let me tell you…many of those bad coaches are about to get even worse! You ain’t seen nothing yet in terms of big ugly blowouts that are going to embarrass many overwhelmed programs.
Let me explain why that’s going to happen…
*We’ve reached the point in the season where bad teams lose their fighting spirit. They know 2012 is a lost cause. They know their head coach may get fired at the end of the season. They have no faith that he’s going to turn things around. We’re talking here about teams who were getting blown out when they were trying as hard as they could! What’s going to happen when they lose their fighting spirit? Even though oddsmakers will have made some adjustments based on prior results…they can’t fully account for the disasters that are about to unfold. The worst coaches are about to find out that their players aren’t even listening to them any more. I will allow for the possibility that poorly coached teams will still get up for their most hated rival. Those games aren’t likely to come until late November. Until then, I’m looking to fade multiple lifeless teams.
*We’ve also reached the point in the season where attrition really starts to take hold. Bad teams don’t have a lot of depth. And, the good players that are on the roster are asked to do too much in the first half of the season. That means they’re either out of the lineup, or playing hobbled from this point forward. We’re talking about teams who were getting blown out when they were healthy! What’s going to happen when the worst players on the roster start getting more playing time? The worst coaches are going to use bad play calling and bad strategies with some new faces who are in way over their heads. And, attrition is very important on defense…because games get out of hand very quickly when the defense can’t stop anything.
*The coaches themselves are also going to be down in the dumps because they can see the writing on the wall. When a coach lacks confidence and intensity, that magnifies through all the players. All coaches start the season confident because they’re playing the role of leader. Everybody’s undefeated before the season begins. Now that reality has set in, many coaches do a worse job of leading just when they need to be at their very best. They get tired of listening to the boos or seeing so many empty seats at their home games. They get tired of answering the same questions over and over again at press conferences. They get tired of seeing the impact that a losing season has on their loved ones.
I’m not going to get specific in today’s article about which coaches I have my eye on because I will be going against SEVERAL of them over the next month. You can assume coaches I’ve exploited already this year are still on the radar. But…I’ve been saving some guys for right now because I wanted attrition to have an impact on their PLAYMAKERS. There are some results coming this Saturday and next that are going to stun Vegas oddsmakers when previously “mediocre” or “struggling” teams completely fall off the map.
I strongly encourage you to look through the standings and schedules to try and find qualifiers for today’s topic. I’ve told you what you need to know for your own homework. My College of Advanced Handicapping doesn’t include me doing all of your homework for you! If you’d like additional assistance, you can sign up for my selections here at this very website. All major credit cards are accepted. You can go day-by-day or come in for the rest of the season.
I’ll be back with you again Tuesday for our next scheduled class. Be aware that NBA basketball is right around the corner. I’ll try to work in some basketball notes amidst the flurry of football. The schedule won’t permit me to go with wall-to-wall basketball until the new year. Beating the line is a 365-day-a-year challenge for Las Vegas bettors. My principles of Advanced Handicapping can turn that challenge into a career for those of you who work the hardest.
Please remember to check the archives if you miss a class, or if you’re new to this website. My articles go up on Tuesdays and Fridays. I strongly encourage all of you to print out each one so that you can create a virtual textbook that can be referred to in perpetuity. These are proven fundamentals. You should have them handy at all times!