Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, August 19, 2011 at 5:32 PM
One of the keys to successfully handicap the NFL pre-season is the ability to first put all the details in the public domain together as sort of a road map and then use them to get inside of coach's head to determine how he intends to play his hand, whether he has a lot of interest in winning, little interest or no interest at all.
When one finds a game in which one coach has a better than average interest in winning and his team is playing an opponent coached by one with no interest in victory, the stage is set for a win. In fact this situation gave us a 10-unit win last week with the Tampa Bay Bucs (-2 ½) and their 25-0 win over the Kansas City Chiefs.
The coaches played their hands in advance of the game, with KC coach Todd Haley, now a tell-tale 1-9 in the pre-season, saying the game was just another practice session for his team. The Buccaneers made it clear by how they practiced then intended to win from the git-go, pre-season or not.
Money in the bank, and there are games like this almost every week, right through the regular NFL and college seasons.
But back to handicapping the NFL pre-season and getting into the heads of those wunderkinds drawing millions of dollars for supposedly teaching guys who know far more about the position they plan that do their mentors. Who is kidding whom?
All the information available to the public can be found on team websites, in hometown newspapers, on the Internet, in football blogs and on television networks, especially ESPN. When one has all that information in front of him, he can then start to put the pieces of the puzzle together and build a highway into a coach's mind.
Once Inside The Information Flows
Once inside, the information flows and one can figure out whether it is safe to lay the points, or a better bet to take them. Most head coaches, and the assistants around them, are thinkers. The thinkers assess their team's strengths and weaknesses, and those of their opponents, and then try to come up with a game play that gives his team the best chance to win.
Those who think best are the winners.
Thinking coaches are the football bettor's best friends. They can figure out how to take their team and beat a better team and, even when they don't get the win, they just might get the cover. It was always said of the great Alabama Coach Paul "Bear" Bryant that he could take his team and beat your team, or take your team and beat his team.
One of the most stunning things I have discovered in accessing the grey matter of NFL and college coaches is that there is little there-mostly empty space, in fact. Yes, there is knowledge of basic football and offenses and defenses stolen from other coaches but that is it. There is no evidence of how to put a group of players together to make a team, no evidence that enables to "take his boys and beat your boys, or take your boys and beat his boys", and most of all, the absence of any ability to put his team on the razor's edge at game time.
We will be discussing these factors over the next week or two in order to get you ready for the opening weekend of the college season where there are posted on the board 84 games that will be played over a five-day period from Sept. 15.
As you are handicapping tonight's games, you might want to take not of the fact both the Arizona Cardinals (at Green Bay) and the Indianapolis Colts (hosting) Washington were hot stream plays at off-shore books today. The money on both and at this writing, the Cardinals are +6 and the Colts -5.
It's your call.
Also make a note of the fact big money showed on New Orleans for its game at the Houston Texans. The game yesterday went quickly from Houston -2 to the Saints -1 ½. It has everything to do with all the injuries to key Texans' players and the belief, because of the situation, Houston will play very cautiously in that game in hopes of keeping players healthy.
I lost my first play of Week II of the pre-season, going down with the Philadelphia Eagles (+3) in their 24-14 loss last night to the Pittsburgh Steelers but am coming right back firing tonight with a 25-unit 2-team parlay that I believe will get it done at 3-0 tonight. The parlay is available on this site and toll free at 1-800-755-2255 for just $25, charged to your major credit card.
It is free to those who have purchased my Early Bird Football Package (details below). Here is the menu for Week II in the NFL pre-season. Just clkick on the day to sign up.
As you can see, I take the pre-season quite seriously and have for the past 15 years used it as a major profit center and a tool to build one's bankroll for the regular season. As noted earlier, it is free as part of my Early Bird Football Package, and here is what is included in that.
Get Entire Pre-Season Free
I have again put together a tremendous Early Bird Football Package that is priced at just $199, and here is what it includes:
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The entire NFL season that includes an average of 3 games every Sunday and most of the Monday night and mid-week games
The rest of the baseball season right through the World Series in October. For the record those getting free baseball with their Early-Bird Package are 20-12 in the last 32 games..
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My 100-unit College Kick-Off Blowout Game of the Year Sept. 1-just three weeks away.
At least two more 100-unit college winners
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My 200-unit NFL Game of the Year
At least two 50-unit bonus plays
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