Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, September 2, 2011 at 10:03 AM
I am pleased to report I kicked off the college football season in traditional style by winning my 100-Unit College Kickoff Game of the Year as Mississippi State (-30) buried Memphis, 59-14, and there is more to come tonight, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. When I told you Mississippi State had a 100% chance to win and a 95% chance to cover the number I meant just that.
It seldom gets better than this-a 100% chance to win straight up and a 95% chance to cover the number. That was the conclusion I drew after spending the entire week studying these game. I could ramble on forever about this blowout win but it is better said by showing you the comments I gave to my clients when they purchased this game-word for word.
College Kickoff Blowout Game Of Year
Mississippi State (0-0) -31 over MEMPHIS (0-0)
Prediction: Mississippi State by 45-50
Comments: This is a classic matchup of triple power play football-with Mississippi State loaded to the gills, with everything it takes to win championships and Memphis a team that is less-talented than the one that went 1-11 last season, giving up 39.8 points per game, including a49-7 blowout loss in Starkville to this same Bulldog team. Mississippi State was a 21 ½-point home favorite in that one and is now a 31-point road favorite, figures that signal the decline at Memphis. Mississippi State has prime-time blue-chip game-breaking players at most skill positions, Memphis has none-zero, zip. Mississippi State returns 15 starters, eight on offense and seven on defense. Memphis returns 3 starters on an offense that averaged 14.4 points and but 285.0 yards per game. The Tigers do have the best punter in Tom Hornsey, a former Australian Rules Football player, who averaged 42.7 yards per kick last season. They will need him. As for the coaching matchup, Mississippi State has Dan Mullen who has worked miracles in Starkville in just two seasons and is considered one of the best young coaches in the game. Memphis counters with second year coach Larry Porter who proved to be so inept last season he became the first and only coach to ever earn a 0 (zero) rating in my college power ratings. If ever a game had blowout written all over it, it is this one.
The cover was never in doubt. Mississippi State came out firing, gaining 405 yards in the first half to go to the locker room up 31-7. For the game the Bulldogs had 645 yards of total offense and sat its starters for the final quarter.
The comments tell the entire story and the game was played just as it was scripted.
It was the first of many that will win for us in blowout fashion this season.
It was an aggressive start and that is how I approach ever season. Get ready and come out firing while the big edges are there that one finds in September, courtesy of a rather lazy community of bookmakers who on teams such as Memphis are always three-four weeks behind the run to reality.
Friday Handicapping Hints
(Records Listed For Teams Are From 2010)
TCU (13-0) at Baylor (7-6)-These teams met last year in Fort Worth and TCU (-21) prevailed, 45-10. TCU opened as a 6 ½-point favorite in this one but Baylor money flooded the books Thursday and left the Horned Frogs -3 ½, a shift of three points. The biggest question one must ask about TCU is whether this is a rare rebuilding year. The Frogs, who went 36-3 the past three seasons, return just 8 starters, three on offense and five on defense, from last year's undefeated team that beat Wisconsin, 21-19 in the Rose Bowl. Baylor returns 14 starters-nine on offense and five on defense-and they include junior Robert Griffin, a true superstar, who passed for 3,501 yards, with 22 touchdowns, with three interceptions, and also led the team in rushing with 635 yards and eight more touchdowns. Both of these teams are as well-coached as any in the country and they will come to play. I am releasing this nationally televised (ESPN) game as a 10-unit play. It is available on this site and toll free at 1-800-755-2255 for just $15, charged to your major credit card or you may get it as part of your Best Bets Club membership.
Youngstown State (3-8) at Michigan State (11-2)-Michigan State won a share of the Big Ten title, went to the Capital One Bowl as the 7th-ranked team in the country and was buried by 15th-ranked Alabama, 49-7. It will come to this game to get that bad Crimson Tide taste out of its mouth. The Spartans are a 38-point favorite in this one as they face a Youngstown State that is looking to regain its status as a Division I-AA power. Second-year Penguin coach Eric Wolford has brought in 50 new players to the program and the question here is simply, have they spent enough time together in practice to be on the same page and to have developed even a minimum of chemistry. This game will be televised on the Big Ten Network and you are on your own.
Bookmakers Expand Betting Board
Bookmakers have expanded the betting board for the 2011 season by added a category of games listed as "Extra Games", this in addition to the regular board games and those listed as "added games", i.e. contests on all Sun Belt Conference games.
There were eight of those games last night and favorites and underdogs split the night 4-4 against the spread. Division I-AA teams getting the covers over their big brothers last night were Murray State (+28 ½) in a 21-9 loss at Louisville, South Carolina State (+19) in a 21-6 loss at Central Michigan, Montana State (+30) in a 27-10 loss at Utah and UC-Davis (+37 ½) in a 48-14 loss at Arizona State.
All bookmakers to whom I have spoken about the expanded board say they will be offering betting on all the games, including "extra games". Since numbers do not seem to be readily available on the latter, here are the betting lines on Saturday's games, with home teams in CAPS.
Saturday's Extra Games
IOWA -39 ½ over Tennessee Tech
PENN STATE -37 over Indiana State
VIRGINIA TECH -25 ½ over Appalachian State
AIR FORCE -34 over South Dakota
NAVY -9 ½ over Delaware
NEBRASKA -37 over Tenn-Chattanooga
NOTH CAROLINA -18 over James Madison
TULANE -16 over SE Louisiana
OREGON STATE -26 ½ over CS-Sacramento
WASHINGTON STATE -28 over Idaho State
N.C. STATE -29 over Liberty
TENNESSEE -28 over Montana
VIRGINIA -8 over William & Mary
TEXAS TECH -38 ½ over Texas State
ARKANSAS -42 over Missouri State
CINCINNATI -42 ½ over Austin Peay
DUKE -9 over Richmond
EASTERN MICHIGAN (-30) over Howard
IOWA STATE -10 ½ over Northern Iowa
KANSAS -14 over McNeese State
KANSAS STATE -29 over Eastern Kentucky
CENTRAL FLORIDA (-40) over Charleston Southern
WASHINGTON -18 over Eastern Washington
VANDERBILT -12 over Elon
TEXAS-EL PASO -18 over Stony Brook
WYOMING -13 over Weber State
SAN DIEGO STATE -22 ½ over Cal Poly
ARIZONA -27 over Northern Arizona
I will personally be betting some of these games and know for certain I will be taking SE Louisiana over Tulane, which will be probably will be without sophomore running back Orleans Darkwa who rushed for 925 yards and 11 touchdowns as a freshman last year. He has a painful toe injury and has little chance to play. It also is of note SE Louisiana has an outstanding football team and in its last three meetings with Tulane has lost by 6, 8 and 7 points.
I also may take a flyer with Kansas State laying the 29 against Eastern Kentucky which will be without its quarterback.
The Weekend Betting Menu
The following games are available on this sight and toll free at 1-800-755-2255. All major credit cards accepted.
Tonight, Sept. 2
Nationally Televised TCU At Baylor Wins At 10 Units Tonight
There are enough story lines on tonight's nationally televised TCU at Baylor game one could write a book on them but the only line I'm looking at is TCU -3 ½. Can TCU, which went 13-0 last season, get the cover in Waco, or can the upstart and talented Bears get the job done? I have the answer to that question and am releasing this ESPN game at the 10-unit level and I do intend to get the money. Win this one and build your bankroll for a giant Saturday. It's just $15, charged to your major credit card.
Saturday, Sept. 3
Highrollers Go For Cash With 50-Unit College Game Of Week
My Personal Best Club for highrollers goes for the big money again today with my 50-unit College Football Game of the Week and I am quite confident the team I am releasing will cover the number by 13-14 points. The team I am releasing is quite under-rated by those who making betting lines and the soft number is just one of the edges we have. In this one we have the superior offense, the superior defense and skill players who can deliver the knockout punch. Win this one for just $50, charged to your major credit card, or get on board for the entire Personal Best Club season for just $999. Keep in mind members of this prestigious club have destroyed bookmakers over the last three seasons, with those betting at the $100-per-unit level winning more than $400,000.
25-Unit Underdog Plus Saturday Night Special Get it Done Today
My Chairman's Club is kicking off its season today with two giant plays-a 25-unit underdog that grades out the straight-up winner and a 15-unit Saturday night special that grades as a dominating winner. Win both these knockout games for just $25, charged to your major credit card, or get them as part of your Chairman's Club membership ($399) which also includes automatic membership in my Best Bets Club (a $199 value)
Nationally Televised Boise State-Georgia Game Tops 3-0 Day
The Saturday card is loaded with prime time games but few are more attractive than the nationally televised (ESPN) showdown battle between 4th-ranked Boise State and always-powerful Georgia. I have a strong opinion on this game-backed by some strong numbers-and am releasing it as a 10-unit play to my Best Bets Club clients. Win this one, plus get two other unit-rated plays, for just $15, charged to your major credit card. Better yet, sign up for membership in my Best Bets Club for just $199 and get the entire college and NFL seasons, plus Major League Baseball. It's the buy of the year.