Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Tuesday, September 27, 2011 at 5:52 PM
The Washington Redskins (+3 ½) got the cover over the Dallas Cowboys in an 18-16 loss and that 10-unit winner pushed my Best Bets Club record for the past two weeks to 13-3, proving one does not have to spend a fortune to win one. Membership in my Best Bets Club is just $199 for the entire season and it includes baseball right through the playoffs and the World Series.
The Washington cover closed out a 7-1 BBC week, and that followed last week’s 6-2 record. Of note is the fact the club went a perfect 4-0 in the NFL, winning with three underdogs, including straight up upset wins by the Buffalo Bills and the Oakland Raiders.
Please consider this an invitation to get on board and win with me. Again Best Bet Club membership is just $199 for the entire season and includes:
- The entire college football season.
- The entire NFL season.
- My 200-Unit College Football Game of the Year which wins in October.
- My 200-Unit NFL Game of the Year which wins in October.
- The rest of the baseball season right through the World Series.
Sign up on this website or toll free at 1-800-755-2255 for just $199. All major credit cards accepted. I always let my record speak for itself and here are the BBC plays for the past two weeks.
7-1 Record Last Week
Monday, Sept. 26
10 Units…Redskins (+3 ½) 16, Cowboys 18 (W)
Sunday, Sept. 25
10 Units…Bills (+7) 34, Patriots 31 (W)
5 Units…Saints (-3) 40, Texans 33 (W)
5 Units…Raiders (+3) 34, Jets 24 (W)
Saturday, Sept. 24
10 Units…Vanderbilt (+15 ½) 3, South Carolina 21 (L)
5 Units…Georgia Tech (-6 ½) 35, North Carolina 28 (W)
5 Units…Florida (-17 ½) 48, Kentucky 10 (W)
Friday, Sept. 23
10 Units…BYU (-2) 24, Central Florida 17 (W)
6-2 The Week Before
Sunday, Sept. 18
10 Units…Falcons (+1 ½) 35, Eagles 31 (Win)
5 Units…Packers (-10) 30, Panthers 23 (Lose)
5 Units…Buccaneers (+2) 24, Vikings 20 (Win)
Saturday, Sept. 17
10 Units…Colorado (-7) 28, Colorado State 14 (Win)
5 Units…Houston (-6 ½) 35, Louisiana Tech 34 (Lose)
5 Units…Texas Tech (-20 ½) 59, New Mexico 14 (Win)
Friday, Sept. 16
10 Units…Boise State (-20) 40, Toledo 15 (Win)
5 Units…Iowa State (+4, 24, Connecticut (Win)
Big College Bettors Already In Action
The wiseguys and big bettors stepped in more cautiously this week on the college football games but bet enough early to make Kansas, Iowa State, Illinois, Wisconsin, Army, Alabama, Auburn, Navy and Temple steam plays.
One must always pay attention to early moves in the colleges because, without exception that money comes from insiders who believe they are taking a big edge. Last week they went 6-4 on their early plays and finished the week 17-12-1. That means they won a respectable 59.0 of their games.
Keep in mind bettors wagering the exact amount of money on each game need win but 52.32% to break even. The big betting syndicates shoot to hit 60% winners, a fact that should dispel the strongly-held belief among sports bettors that one must win 90% of their plays to reach any level of satisfaction.
Wiseguy money showed late Saturday on Utah State (-10 ½) over Colorado State and on “under” 55 ½ in that game. The big money drove the line up to -12 ½ and the total down to 53. Colorado State won the game 35-34 in two overtimes and the insiders blew both bets.
As I have pointed out many times, money moves win just over 50% of the time.
In other words, bettors beware.
Three NFL Teams Qualify For Bounce Play
I won my 50-unit NFL Game of the Week with the Baltimore Ravens (-5 ½) with their 37-7 win at the St. Louis Rams and based my strong opinion on the bounce theory that says a team that plays far under its performance profile on week will bounce-back and play far above it the next week. It also says a team playing far over its profile one week will play far below it the following week.
It is my opinion that a team coming off an unexpected one-sided loss merits a strong play, with a few caveats. Baltimore came into the St. Louis game off a 26-13 loss as a 5 ½-point favorite at the Tennessee Titans—and it does not get more negative than that.
While I an absolute believer in teams bouncing upward off an embarrassing loss merits strong play—not so much those teams bouncing downward off a big and unexpected win. I believe it all has to do with the need for players who got their butts whipped to show they are better than that performance.
In using the bounce factor one must realize it does not necessarily stand alone. A team in bounce-back form also must have the ability to beat the team it next faces.
There are three NFL teams in bounce-back form this week.
--The New England Patriots lost last week at Buffalo, 34-31, as 7-point favorites and this week are 4 ½ point favorites at Oakland. It is of note that Oakland is in bounce-downward form, coming off an upset win over the New York Jets. Many consider this the perfect formula to cash a ticket, believe that a team about to bounce upward is a standout play against a team set to bounce downward.
--The Philadelphia Eagles lost at home last week to the New York Giants, 29-16, and 6-point favorites over the San Francisco 49ers.
--The New York Jets lost at Oakland, 34-24, as a 3-point favorite and are 3 ½-point underdogs Sunday night at Baltimore.
The bounce theory figures to be a factor in these games but just remember it does not stand alone. The pointspread must be weighed and the bounce-back team must have the ability to win the game and cover. Teams facing other teams with equal talent may have no edge at all. I never said it would be easy.