Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, September 30, 2011 at 7:27 PM
Once September turns to October, the principals of advanced handicapping encourage us to find “pretenders” in both college and pro football that we can bet against.
The first pretender of this week may have been exposed this past Thursday Night. South Florida carried a solid national ranking…and some hype as “the best team in the Big East” into their conference war with Pittsburgh. A 4-0 team entering the battle went home with a 4-1 record after missing the spread by almost 30 points!
I can assure you that many more pretenders will be exposed Saturday in college football, and Sunday in the NFL. This is the perfect time on the schedule for this phenomenon to literally take over a weekend.
*Many college teams played creampuff schedules in September. The heavy slate of conference games on Saturday October 1st will guarantee much tougher competition.
*Some pro teams have also had it fairly easy in terms of their early schedule. I could name at least five teams who are either 3-0 or 2-1 right now that are going to disappoint their fans in the very near future.
*Many college teams are being overhyped by the media. Sometimes I think that ESPN has made it their job to tell you how great everybody is…without ever bothering to tell you which teams aren’t nearly as good as their records. Of course…CBS does the same thing with its SEC games. Fox entered the college realm this year with national games on FX…and they may be going even further overboard so far. This is great for advanced handicapping. The TV networks literally CREATE pretenders that we can exploit.
*Pro teams are also prone to the hype machine. A lot of preseason pundits have egg on their faces after assuring everyone Philadelphia would coast into the Super Bowl. The Eagles are 1-2 out of the gate. Between ESPN and the NFL Network…the hype machine seems to run non-stop. They’ve picked new teams now to rhapsodize about around the clock. Thanks! I’ll betting BIG against at least one of those teams this Sunday.
I’ve asked my staff to put together a complete listing of every undefeated team right now in college football, and every pro team that’s at least 2-1 or better in the NFL.
ACC: Virginia Tech, Clemson, Georgia Tech are all 4-0.
Big 12: Oklahoma State is 4-0. Oklahoma, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas, and Texas Tech are all 3-0.
Big 10: Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, and Nebraska
CUSA: Houston moved to 5-0 with a win Thursday Night (though they played like a pretender in a non-cover! Maybe there were two pretenders exposed Thursday)
Mountain West: Boise State is 3-0
Pac 10: Stanford is 3-0
SEC: LSU, Alabama, Florida, and South Carolina are all 4-0
Now, I’m not suggesting by any means that each and every one of those teams is a pretender. There’s a good chance that the next national champion is on that list…perhaps a string of teams who will stay undefeated until very late in the season. But, there are DEFINITELY some pretenders listed above…some you need to be very wary of on Saturday.
3-0: Buffalo, Detroit, Green Bay
2-1: New England, NY Jets, Baltimore, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Houston, Tennessee, Oakland, San Diego,
Dallas, Washington, NY Giants, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco
That’s 18 pro teams with winning records, in a sport where only 12 teams make the playoffs. I can’t get into specifics about the card I’ll be releasing to my clients on Sunday. You can be sure that I’m very seriously considering bets against many of the teams on that list compiled by my staff. Maybe a half dozen of those teams were overhyped this week by the NFL Network and ESPN after their victories last weekend.
You can purchase my game day releases here at the website with your credit card. My annual Oktoberfest begins Saturday with a 100-unit college blowout that has a 100% chance to win straight up and a 90% chance to cover the spread based on my calculations. Sunday I’ll have a 50-unit NFL Game of the Week, and a special 75-unit parlay that features a pair of 25-unit individual plays…plus a 25-unit parlay. Note that you can purchase my full Oktoberfest package online for just $249.
Thanks for attending another class in my Advanced Handicapping series. Please keep checking my videos on the home page for more insights and analysis. We’ll pick up with these supplemental written reports again next week.