Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, October 21, 2011 at 1:04 PM
Last week I won my 200-Unit Blowout of the Year on the Washington Huskies (-17) over Colorado 52-24. This week, I’m coming back with my official GAME OF THE YEAR in college football…and it’s a play I believe is even stronger.
How can I top a Blowout of the Year that led 38-10 at halftime and won yardage by about a million? How can I match last year’s College GAME OF THE YEAR when Hawaii (-15) decimated Idaho 45-10 (leading 31-3 at halftime)?
Well, many of the same principles are in play this week that led to last week’s monster winner and last year’s bombshell blowout. Let’s review the fundamentals from my College of Advanced Handicapping.
*TALENT ADVANTAGE: This is a basic fundamental of all of my handicapping in any sport. It becomes a much bigger influence in college football and basketball because there are bigger extremes with so many board teams.
I don’t need to tell you that there are many talent mismatches on the schedule this week. You can see that with all the high spreads. Just be aware that my recent GOY caliber selections haven’t been favorites of 24 or 31 points in what might be called “obvious” talent mismatches. They’ve been between 10 and 19 points in what’s more of a “hidden” range. There’s an understanding in the market that one team’s better…but a MIS-understanding about the true difference between those teams. Maybe the dog is much worse than everyone realizes. Maybe the favorite is much better. Maybe it’s a mixture of both.
You can probably assume a mixture of BOTH if Kelso Sturgeon is using the words “Game of the Year!”
*QUARTERBACK EDGE: It goes without saying right now that the biggest difference between the have’s and have not’s in this sport is at the quarterback position. The very best teams have superstars. The very good teams at least have somebody who can manage a game. The disappointments are finding out that a player they thought was going to be good has been overrated. The disasters just don’t have any options.
You can see in my big prior winners…and if you go over a list of my top plays from several weeks at a time…I tend to focus on matchups of the first two categories against the latter two categories. I won’t ask a shaky quarterback to win for me. I won’t fade talent at the position…at least for a very big play.
If you haven’t given a report card grade to each board team at the quarterback position yet this season, I strongly advise you to do so now. It’s something you can take advantage of from now through the end of the regular season and in many of the bowl games. This seems like such a basic fundamental. It’s amazing how many Las Vegas gamblers don’t make this sort of evaluation. The College of Advanced Handicapping implies a mastery of the fundamentals! Same is true of culinary academies or the best law schools. “Advanced” doesn’t mean you get to skip over the fundamentals. It means you MASTER the fundamentals.
*AN OVERMATCHED OR UNDERSIZED DEFENSE: When I release a GOY play, I’ve typically found a spot where my team is going to score early and often. If for some reason my team doesn’t score early, they’re going to have a shot to pile on the points late when the opposing defense gets word down and throws in the towel. You saw with the two games mentioned above that I jumped out to early leads. It doesn’t always go like that. Sometimes the first half is more competitive…but then I win the second half 28-7 or bigger. The point is…you want to find vulnerable defenses and bet against them.
You’ll note that travel was a hidden kicker for me when betting against Colorado and Idaho. I had vulnerable defenses who also made long trips in those examples…with the Buffaloes flying all the way to the Pacific Northwest…and the Vandals having to fly halfway to Japan. Overmatched and undersized defenses are in real trouble on their longest road trips.
*AN EXTRA MOTIVATIONAL EDGE THAT ISN’T FACTORED IN THE LINE
I don’t want to get very specific here because you’ll try to figure out which game I’m betting Saturday based just on this factor. I’ve already explained that I loved the spirit of rejuvenated Washington as compared to the down-in-the-dumps mentality of Colorado heading into last week’s game. Last year Hawaii was in a bounce back spot off of Boise State, while Idaho was lacking confidence after a two-week combined 115-31 loss to WAC powers.
I’m sure each and every one of you who won my Blowout of the Year last week will be back to win again this week. I hope those of you stragglers who missed the game will act EARLY and take care of business in time to get the granddaddy of them all…my official COLLEGE GAME OF THE YEAR for 2011.
Thanks for attending today’s presentation from the College of Advanced Handicapping. I’ll be back early next week for the next step in the syllabus. Be sure to check for fresh videos this weekend on the home page of this website for the very latest developments from my personal service. Something big is brewing for Sunday’s NFL too!