Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Saturday, October 22, 2011 at 8:44 AM
Saturday is the big day-the day when I release my 200-unit College Football Game Of The Year-and I am confident I will again get the cash with a modest favorite that has a 100% chance to win straight up and a 95% chance to cover the number and the team I am releasing has the edge in 46 of the 48 elements I use in handicapping.
I have been absolutely on fire in handicapping the past two weeks and am releasing this game with all the confidence it will march right to the winner's circle.
When I won my 50-unit PAC-10 Game of the Year Thursday with Arizona (-4.5) over UCLA, 48-12, that pushed my current record with 50-unit winners to 8-0. Two days before that I took down all the money with my 50-unit Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year as Arkansas State (-3.5) crushed Florida International in its 34-16 win.
And I also must mention last Saturday I knocked down a 200-unit win with Washington (-17.5) in its 52-24 blowout win over Colorado. The Thursday night before that, it was a 100-unit winner with underdog San Diego State (+7) as the Aztecs got it done at Air Force straight up, 41-27.
This happened. This is a fact and now it is time for the big one, which will be available on this site and toll free at 1-800-755-2255 for a $50 free, charged to your major credit card.
Here are the edges the 200-unit College Game of the Year team has.
- Just as did the 200-unit play on Washington last week, the betting line is far afield and has little connection with reality. I don't know why that is the situation. It just is. When I released Washington last week, the Huskies were -14 and after my clients got into action the number moved to -17.5, still not close to reality. Keep in mind all big-game plays begin with a weak line.
- The team I am releasing gives us the classic power vs. weakness requirement.
- The team I am releasing has a tremendous edge in the all-important category of skill players.
- The team I am releasing has three game-breaking players while its opponent has none.
- The team I am releasing has a dramatically superior offensive line.
- The team I am releasing has a dramatically superior team.
- The team I am releasing has the best red-zone offense.
- The team I am releasing has the best red-zone defense.
- The team I am releasing knows how to put a team away for good.
- The team I am releasing has an outstanding coach.
Betting Football In The Real World
The world seems to be going to hell in a hand basket and that spurs me to remind the world that amid all the chaos brought about by a struggling global economy that there is plenty of money to be made in the world of football betting. If ever there was a time to recognize this fact, it is now.
Forget the anti-gambling prejudices of the past and realize that if one knows what one is doing, and is successful at it over a long period of time, football betting can be a dependable source of income, and I will gladly debate any uninformed fool who says otherwise.
I know I speak the truth and it scares people. The fact one can win in the sports betting arena is so alien in the minds of most they never permit themselves to intellectually study the possibility. They believe if they take even a peek at it they will automatically fall into a bottomless black abyss that will cast them forever into the flames of Hades.
Before writing another word, let's take a break and cut right to the chase. Football betting is directly related to all business-you can make money and you can lose money-but, if you come up with a formula that is successful and consistently produces profits, you can beat the game.
This does not means you win every single day. Target, Exxon, Apple, Microsoft and Sears don't make a profit every day they open their doors. Why do you think a football bettor should have 100% profitable days? The latter is the mindset of one with expectations that clash head-on with reality. All winning days is just not going to happen.
There is a saying in the sports betting fraternity that, "if you can't stand to lose, you can't win". Count me among those who believe that. I have been handicapping professionally for more than four decades and know for certain:
- If you have a handicapping formula that has been successful-and that means profitable over a long period of time-you will beat the game.
- There will be losing days and weeks but it won't matter. The aforementioned formula keeps the ship on course and all but guarantees that in the end you win.
- You must never vary from the proven successful formula.
- There are 5-unit games and 500-unit games and you have to know which is which.
- You have to have the courage to send it in when you have determined a particular game has almost no chance to lose.
This is not an over-simplification of the winning process. Come up with the right formula and the rest is easy.
I Have The Right Formula
It is my first suggestion that, if you have the formula and the time to actually handicap, that you start betting with confidence. In this age of instant information, you can win with consistently.
By the same token, if you do not have the formula, or the time, let me do it for you. I will never tell you that I win every day, or even every week, but the winning days and weeks overpower those that finish in the red. Three weeks ago, I had a terrible Saturday and Sunday, but continued to use the same formula that wins and head into this weekend with each service having a winning record since then.
The facts speak for themselves. I have football services for every level of player and invite you to get on board and let me prove I can win for you.
All services and daily football releases are available on this site and toll free at 1-800-755-2255. The price is always right and I do accept all major credit cards. When you have the formula and the time to do the work, you win. It is as simple as that.
Kelso's Advanced Handicapping: How Will I Top Last Week?
Last week I won my 200-Unit Blowout of the Year on the Washington Huskies (-17) over Colorado 52-24. This week, I'm coming back with my official GAME OF THE YEAR in college football...and it's a play I believe is even stronger.
How can I top a Blowout of the Year that led 38-10 at halftime and won yardage by about a million? How can I match last year's College GAME OF THE YEAR when Hawaii (-15) decimated Idaho 45-10 (leading 31-3 at halftime)?
Well, many of the same principles are in play this week that led to last week's monster winner and last year's bombshell blowout. Let's review the fundamentals from my College of Advanced Handicapping.
*TALENT ADVANTAGE: This is a basic fundamental of all of my handicapping in any sport. It becomes a much bigger influence in college football and basketball because there are bigger extremes with so many board teams.
I don't need to tell you that there are many talent mismatches on the schedule this week. You can see that with all the high spreads. Just be aware that my recent GOY caliber selections haven't been favorites of 24 or 31 points in what might be called 'obvious' talent mismatches. They've been between 10 and 19 points in what's more of a 'hidden' range. There's an understanding in the market that one team's better...but a MIS-understanding about the true difference between those teams. Maybe the dog is much worse than everyone realizes. Maybe the favorite is much better. Maybe it's a mixture of both.
You can probably assume a mixture of BOTH if Kelso Sturgeon is using the words "Game of the Year!"
QUARTERBACK EDGE: It goes without saying right now that the biggest difference between the have's and have not's in this sport is at the quarterback position. The very best teams have superstars. The very good teams at least have somebody who can manage a game. The disappointments are finding out that a player they thought was going to be good has been overrated. The disasters just don't have any options.
You can see in my big prior winners...and if you go over a list of my top plays from several weeks at a time...I tend to focus on matchups of the first two categories against the latter two categories. I won't ask a shaky quarterback to win for me. I won't fade talent at the position...at least for a very big play.
If you haven't given a report card grade to each board team at the quarterback position yet this season, I strongly advise you to do so now. It's something you can take advantage of from now through the end of the regular season and in many of the bowl games. This seems like such a basic fundamental. It's amazing how many Las Vegas gamblers don't make this sort of evaluation. The College of Advanced Handicapping implies a mastery of the fundamentals! Same is true of culinary academies or the best law schools. 'Advanced' doesn't mean you get to skip over the fundamentals. It means you MASTER the fundamentals.
AN OVERMATCHED OR UNDERSIZED DEFENSE: When I release a GOY play, I've typically found a spot where my team is going to score early and often. If for some reason my team doesn't score early, they're going to have a shot to pile on the points late when the opposing defense gets word down and throws in the towel. You saw with the two games mentioned above that I jumped out to early leads. It doesn't always go like that. Sometimes the first half is more competitive...but then I win the second half 28-7 or bigger. The point is...you want to find vulnerable defenses and bet against them.
You'll note that travel was a hidden kicker for me when betting against Colorado and Idaho. I had vulnerable defenses who also made long trips in those examples...with the Buffaloes flying all the way to the Pacific Northwest...and the Vandals having to fly halfway to Japan. Overmatched and undersized defenses are in real trouble on their longest road trips.
AN EXTRA MOTIVATIONAL EDGE THAT ISN'T FACTORED IN THE LINE
I don't want to get very specific here because you'll try to figure out which game I'm betting Saturday based just on this factor. I've already explained that I loved the spirit of rejuvenated Washington as compared to the down-in-the-dumps mentality of Colorado heading into last week's game. Last year Hawaii was in a bounce back spot off of Boise State, while Idaho was lacking confidence after a two-week combined 115-31 loss to WAC powers.
I'm sure each and every one of you who won my Blowout of the Year last week will be back to win again this week. I hope those of you stragglers who missed the game will act EARLY and take care of business in time to get the granddaddy of them all...my official COLLEGE GAME OF THE YEAR for 2011.
Thanks for attending today's presentation from the College of Advanced Handicapping. I'll be back early next week for the next step in the syllabus. Be sure to check for fresh videos this weekend on the home page of this website for the very latest developments from my personal service. Something big is brewing for Sunday's NFL too!