Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Tuesday, October 25, 2011 at 12:10 PM
I can remember a time when Thursday Night college football seemed like a novelty. Heck, I can remember when Monday Night pro football seemed like a novelty! Now that TV money has created Tuesday and Wednesday Night football, it’s important that you don’t fall into the trap of forcing plays that don’t deserve to be made.
I know that you want to bet any game that’s on TV. You’re a gambler. That’s your nature. I’m not running Kelso Sturgeon’s College of Degenerate Gambling though. I’m running Kelso Sturgeon’s College of Advanced Handicapping. If you’re going to bet these games, make sure you’re thinking through the process and making the right decisions.
The biggest key to remember is the following…the strongest edge that a bettor has over the line is his ability to PASS the game. Oddsmakers must put up a number on every board game. Bettors can pick and choose what they think is best. A few very wise men told me that when I began sports betting many years ago. It’s now my turn as a respected veteran to pass it along to you.
You don’t have to bet a Tuesday or Wednesday Night game just because it’s there. Do the work it requires to find a true edge, or leave the game alone. Even if you personally are an avid college football fan, I’m skeptical that your “Sun Belt Lean Club” has been doing exceptionally well the past five seasons. Bet true edges, don’t bet leans in conferences you barely follow, or with teams you don’t see much on TV.
That may sound like bad news…somebody telling you that you should pass. Here’s some good news. Oddsmakers often have the most trouble pinning down the quality of teams that they themselves don’t get to see much themselves on TV. That creates soft lines that are beatable with the fundamentals of advanced handicapping (I’ve laid many of those out for you often this year in articles and in my videos…I’m not going to repeat them every single time!).
Look at the schedule this week:
Tuesday: Troy at Florida International (both rarely on TV)
Wednesday: Connecticut at Pittsburgh (UCONN not on TV much this year)
Thursday: Virginia at Miami of Florida (Virginia rarely televised this year) and Rice at Houston (Rice never on TV, and Houston hasn’t been on much)
Friday: BYU at TCU (two common TV teams, so the line could be sharper)
That may not be a schedule that gets you excited as a fan. But, as a HANDICAPPER, your mouth should be watering. Spend a couple of hours researching Troy and FIU, and you’re going to know those teams better than the oddsmakers do. Virginia and Rice? Same story. Oddsmakers know the won-lost records, the ATS records, and probably a few tidbits about those teams. They mostly just watch what the money does to make sure they’re not embarrassed by the sharps. Why not be part of the smart money that wins those games on either the team sides or the totals? You have the power to do so.
I’m personally very confident of my reads in these midweek games. I plan on using them to build my bankroll for my much anticipated 200-unit NFL GAME OF THE YEAR that goes Sunday. The next time we’re together I’ll talk some more about pro football handicapping to get you in the proper frame of mind for that monster release. I discussed the NFL quite a bit in a report that went up here at the website Monday. Be sure you check the archives if you missed that update.
Oh, I’ll also have bankroll builders in baseball this week two. Game Six of the World Series is set for Wednesday Night in St. Louis. Game Seven, if necessary, will go Thursday Night unless weather forces adjustments to the schedule.
I look forward to seeing you again this weekend with the next edition of my College of Advanced Handicapping. Be sure you check the home page for my online video updates as well.
This year there are going to be some weeknight games that you probably shouldn’t touch with a 10-foot pole. That’s not the case THIS week in my view. Please check the purchase page of this website a few hours before kickoff to get my top nightly releases. The fun starts Tuesday with a 25-unit Sun Belt Knockout!