Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, October 28, 2011 at 11:55 AM
It takes a certain confluence of factors for me to use the words “Game of the Year” in pro football. I’m not going to be able to tell you here in an article what my big play is going to be on Sunday. But, I’ll be happy to go over the Advanced Handicapping principals that must be in play for me to step out with a 200-unit release in the NFL.
*First, I need a big edge in gamebreakers. You’ve heard me talk about this a lot this season in my College of Advanced Handicapping videos. There’s an awful lot of talent in the NFL, so you’re not going to have “mismatches” in overall talent. The difference between winning and losing in this league comes down to gamebreakers on offense and defense. Who’s going to break off a short pass into a long touchdown play? Which running backs can go the distance once or twice? Which defensive backs are capable of making a pick six that turns a game around. I can assure you my 200-Unit team this Sunday will have more gamebreakers than its opponent.
*Second, I need an attractive schedule sequence. I don’t want to ask a team that just went to war last week to play at a peak level this week. That doesn’t necessarily mean I’ll be on team coming off a bye this Sunday. But, I’ll be looking at teams who had a relatively easy time of it last week. There were a lot of those, so that’s not giving away too much information! Six teams won by double digits last week, six others had byes. For a game to reach 200-units on my scale, they have to be ready to play one of their best games of the season RIGHT NOW.
*Third, I’d like some additional negatives lined up on the go-against team. Maybe they DID go to war last week and they don’t have much left in the tank. Maybe they’re dealing with injuries or clubhouse turmoil. Maybe they have a really big game NEXT week and won’t be focused so much on this week. It’s not enough for the “take” team to have a lot going for it. That’s a 50-unit play, and sometimes a 100-unit play. For 200-units, there have to be clear and important negatives on the “go against” team.
*Fourth, I want to be on the right side of home field advantage. That doesn’t mean the play is automatically a home team. But, if I’m backing a visitor…I want to go against a team that’s nothing special on its home field. Miami’s been getting a lot of press attention about that issue lately. But, there are other teams who have negligible home field advantage right now in my view. Of course, Washington and Buffalo are playing a semi-neutral site game Sunday in Toronto…which presents an interesting challenge to handicappers but really doesn’t throw a monkey wrench into the process if you understand the dynamics in play with these particular teams. My 200-unit NFL GOY will either be a home team that will benefit from playing at home, or a road team that has nothing to worry about in that regard.
*I could go on for probably 10-15 keys because it takes that many to get a grading this big in my system. I’ll stop with a fifth and final note. I must have a matchup advantage that gives me blowout potential. Some years, that’s a strong running game against a weak run defense. In other seasons, we’re talking about an elite quarterback facing a poor pass defense. Occasionally the monster is keyed by a fired up, aggressive defense facing an inexperienced or bad quarterback. Remember, I’m already looking for peak intensity from my side against less-than-peak from the opponent. Combine that with a matchup advantage, and the game can really blow up very quickly.
I hope you’ll be with me Sunday for my official 200-unit NFL GAME OF THE YEAR for the 2011 season. I’ll be building my clients bankrolls until then with major college releases. As I write this, I’m currently scheduled to have a 100-unit COLLEGE GAME OF THE MONTH for October in Saturday’s colleges. I like this play just as well as my big BLOWOUT OF THE YEAR winner on Washington over Colorado a couple of weeks back.
Be sure to check my videos this weekend on the home page of this very website for details and updates, as well as additional tips from my College of Advanced Handicapping. Thanks very much for reading today’s report. My next written class will be up for online study early next week. I look forward to seeing you then…and to reviewing highlights from my 100-unit and 200-unit weekend winners!