Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, November 4, 2011 at 11:52 AM
This past Monday I posted a video on the home page where I talked about several teams you should be looking to either bet on or fade this weekend because of “the bounce theory.” Today I thought I’d spend more time explaining the power of that theory to you…and why it’s so powerful in sports handicapping.
The basics of the bounce theory are simple:
*Bet against any team that played way over its head the prior week, particularly if it was an underdog winning a big game straight up.
*Bet on any team that played way below expectations the prior week, particularly if it was a pricey underdog that lost outright.
A recent obvious example: Two weeks ago, Texas Tech stunned Oklahoma. Last week, Texas Tech was humiliated at home by Iowa State, while Oklahoma bounced back strong in a blowout road win at Kansas State.
The bounce theory works very well in ALL sports for several reasons.
*First, ALL good teams get embarrassed by a bad result. That’s one of the basic characteristics of top quality teams is that they bounce back strong after a loss. They focus on fixing whatever problem caused the loss. They bring peak intensity the next time they play. When you have talented athletes bringing peak intensity, it’s usually a very good thing. This is true in college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and even in baseball though it’s a lesser influence in that sport.
*Second, it’s very hard for non-elite teams to play great two weeks in a row. The laws of math catch up with them in terms of turnovers or other mistakes. You usually have to play over your heads to score a big upset. Nobody can stay “over their heads” for very long. And, teams like this are prone to spend too much time celebrating a big win and not enough thinking about their next challenge. Think about all of those college basketball teams who scored a major upset on TV one night…then lost badly the next time they took the floor. Whenever you see students mob the court after a game, get ready to bet the bounce theory!
*Third, opponents of bounce teams often get caught thinking the wrong way. Kansas State was thinking, “Hey, if Texas Tech can beat these guys, so can we.” As a result, they didn’t bring the right amount of respect to the meeting. They saw Oklahoma as vulnerable at the exact moment when the Sooners were least vulnerable. On the other hand, fired up Iowa State was thinking “We can make a name for ourselves by knocking off the team that just beat Oklahoma.” And, they did.
*Fourth, Vegas oddsmakers just can’t make a big enough adjustment to account for the carnage that’s about to be created. Oklahoma covered as a 13-point favorite at Kansas State last week. They would have covered as a 21-point favorite…or a 28-point favorite…or a 35-point favorite…because they won 58-17! Trying to post a number that would account for the bounce theory would create one-sided exposure…which is something sportsbooks don’t want to risk. If they move a football line two touchdowns, or a basketball line 10 points, or a baseball moneyline 50 cents, then money would only come in on one team. Sportsbooks want to make money safely and surely rather than with high risk exposure.
As I outlined on that Monday video, there are several college and pro teams in interesting bounce theory positions this weekend. Maybe that will contribute to the 100-unit release I have in the colleges Saturday, or the 100-unit release I have in the pro’s on Sunday. Maybe my College of Advanced Handicapping presentations this week are a bit of a swerve to keep oddsmakers from guessing my real intensions. “Advanced” bettors don’t tell oddsmakers what they’re about to do before they walk to the counter!
I can tell you that the bounce theory is likely to play an important role for me on multiple occasions through my November to Remember program. It always has in the past. And, I’m very excited that college basketball is about to start because that will just give us more possibilities to choose from. I’ll talk more about college hoops in the coming days and weeks.
Thanks for reading this entry in my continuing College of Advanced Handicapping course. Be sure to look for new videos on the home page throughout the weekend.