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Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Tuesday, November 8, 2011 at 10:31 AM

Underdog Bears Upset Eagles 30-24 In 50-Unit
Monday Night Game Of The Month To Push
Record In Past Five Days To 19-5
Perfect 6-0 In Games Rated 100, 75 And 50 Units

LSU, Alabama 1-2 In My College Top 10
Media Looks Foolish In Painting Miles As Clown
200-Unit Special Play Wins This Saturday
1st 50-Unit Play Of Basketball Cashes Friday

 

By Kelso Sturgeon

The figures speak quite loudly for themselves. When the underdog Chicago Bears (+8) upset the Philadelphia Eagles 30-24 in my 50-unit Monday Night Game of the Month it meant I had gone 22-4 with  all my football releases over the past five days—85% winners, a perfect 6-0 record in games rated 100, 75 and 50 units and with clients up 550 units. It does not get much better than that.

While I was pleased to win all the big games, few offered more personal satisfaction in telling you right here in this column last week that you could go to the bank on LSU plus the points over Alabama.  Here is part of what I had to say about that game and in it is an important lesson in handicapping.

'Let's cut right to the chase, and that means I will first focus on this Saturday's so-called college football game of the year that matches number one ranked LSU (8-0) with number two ranked Alabama (8-0) in a game that will almost certainly send the winner to the BCS championship game January 9 in New Orleans. Both teams would be favored to win all of their remaining games, meaning one would finish the season undefeated.

Alabama opened as a 5 ½-point favorite and is now down to -4 ½, to me an unreasonably high number and I must disclose I have already taken LSU, bought a half-point up to +6, laying 12-10. I may be right, I may be wrong but I live and die with my own numbers and they say I am on the right side and should even take a money line play on the Bayou Bengals.

My reasoning is simple and basic in this game. The first thing I do when I handicap a football game is determine if both sides have a legitimate chance to win the game outright, and both  LSU and Alabama are 50-50 to win straight up. That all but settles it for me—LSU plus the points.'

There is a reason I handicap every single game on the board. I am looking for games involving two teams that have a 50-50 chance to win straight up. When the price is right, I am always down on the dog and that was the case with LSU.

Media Portrayed LSU Coach As Clown

I learned long ago there are few media geniuses covering college football—former Notre Dame coach Lou Holtz a major and refreshing exception—and to listen to them is hazardous to your bankroll. To them ignorance is bliss but that does not mean the things they say are even remotely accurate, and this brings me to LSU coach Les Miles—one of the few geniuses in college football.

In analyzing the LSU-Alabama game there hardly was a talking head, or a writer, who did not point out how brilliant Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban is, and they are right, and what an edge he had over the supposedly risk-taking clownish Miles—a man not supposed to be taken seriously. Funny, always joking around, laughing, wear his hats in a silly fashion. Lesticles, they call him—the Mad Hatter, they say. To those covering college football he is the court jester and Saban is the calculating, always in control genius.

The media can call him anything they wish but I know for a fact he may be the best coach in the country in preparing his team for every opponent—and you can take it to the bank he's coming to kick your ass. I guess the media never looked at Miles' record against Alabama and Saban. The LSU coach is 3-2 in five games against Saban and 5-2 in his last seven against the Crimson Tide. He is now 71-17 in seven seasons at LSU and has a national championship (2007) under his belt.

Kelso's College Top 10

  1. LSU (9-0)…Home to Western Kentucky (5-4)…Simply the best
  2. Alabama (8-1)…At Mississippi State (5-4)…Only loss to LSU, 9-6
  3. Oregon (8-1)…At Stanford (9-0)…Only loss to LSU,40-24
  4. Stanford (9-0)…Home to Oregon (8-1)…A complete team
  5. Oklahoma State (9-0)…At Texas Tech (5-4)…Great offense, no defense
  6. Wisconsin (7-2)…At Minnesota (2-7)…Two losses on last-second plays
  7. Boise State (8-0)…Home to TCU (7-2)…Absolutely no weaknesses
  8. Oklahoma (8-1)…Off this week…Talent to beat anybody
  9. Arkansas (8-1)…Home to Tennessee (5-4)…Close season at LSU
  10. Clemson (8-1)…Home to Wake Forest (5-4)…May be better than this

The BCS Is Going To Get Clearer

LSU took a major step towards getting to the BCS championship game in New Orleans in its win over Alabama and the Oregon at Stanford game this weekend is going to add even more clarity to the situation. A Stanford win gives the Cardinal an inside track to also get to New Orleans, but an Oregon victory puts the Ducks right back into the fight.

Oklahoma State, and undefeated 9-0 and second behind LSU in this week's BCS poll, is obviously in the hunt, as is Boise State (8-0), although it will take a miracle for the latter to get there because of its strength of schedule.

One undefeated team that is going nowhere is 9-0 Houston. The Cougars are handicapped by playing one of the weakest schedules in the country. They have beaten UCLA (5-4), North Texas (3-6), Louisiana Tech (5-4), I-AA Georgia State (2-6) Texas-El Paso (4-5), East Carolina (4-5) Marshall (4-5), Rice (3-6), UAB (1-8). The remaining Houston schedule is at Tulane (2-8), SMU (6-3) and at Tulsa (6-3)

This team can finish 12-0 and get no consideration for the BCS title game. As noted, the Cougars may be as good as their record but the competition they have played automatically eliminates them

Colts Still Headed For 0-16

It is difficult for any NFL team to go winless through an entire season but the figures say the Indianapolis Colts have a good chance to go 0-16. Without starting quarterback Peyton Manning, who is out for the season with a neck injury, the Colts have become everybody's sparring partner.

The Colts' body language tells me they have given up, don't care whether they win or lose and are just going through the motions. The situation in Indianapolis has exposed third-year head coach Jim Caldwell as an empty saddle who has no idea how to keep this team focused and squeeze out a win or two.

This is not to suggest the Colts might not cover some of their remaining games. They are 2-7 against the number but it is of note they were 2-2 in that department and have gone 0-5 in their last five outings—a product of giving up on the season. Indianapolis has scored just 24 points in its last three games.

Cincinnati Bengals Bettors Best Friend

The Cincinnati Bengals began the season to finish last in AFC North and were 60-1 to win the Super Bowl but have defied the odds, opening the season 6-2 straight up and 7-1 against the number. For bettors paying attention, Cincinnati has become a major profit center and I got the cash again with them for Best Bet Club members this past Sunday as the Bengals (+3) won at Tennessee, 24-7.
For those who have not been paying attention, the win in Nashville was the fifth straight for Cincinnati and three of those have come on the road.

It also is of note the Bengals have played 6-1-1 to the 'over' in its first eight games, offering the bettors an edge in totals. Their two losses have come at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers, 13-8, and at Denver, 24-22.

The Bengals are 3-point home underdogs to Pittsburgh this week.

Winning Big Game Plays Last Five Days

Here is my big game record for the past five days. Give it a good look while keeping in mind the wins came by understand two basic things—superior talent wins football games and success comes from finding talented power teams playing weaker and less talented schools.

Monday, Nov. 7
NFL Monday Night Game Of Month: 50 Units

Chicago Bears (+8) 30, Philadelphia Eagles 24

Sunday, Nov. 6
NFL Triple Power Play: 100 Units

San Francisco 49ers (-3) 19, Washington Redskins 11

Syndicate Club: 75 Units
Houston Texans (-10 ½) 30, Cleveland Browns 12

Chairman's Club
25-Unit Side/Total Parlay
10 Units: New York Giants (+9) 24, New England Patriots 20
10 Units: Giants-Patriots Under 51 ½
5 Units: Parlay of Giants and the Under

Saturday, Nov. 5
College Blowout Game Of The Week: 100 Units
Stanford (-21) 38, Oregon State 13

Syndicate Club: 75 Units
Houston (-27 ½) 56, UAB 13

Chairman's Club: 25 Units
Arkansas State (-17) 39, Florida Atlantic 21

Friday, Nov. 4: 50 Units
Kent State (-1 ½) 24, Central Michigan 21

Kelso's College Top 10

  1. LSU (9-0)…Home to Western Kentucky (5-4)…Simply the best
  2. Alabama (8-1)…At Mississippi State (5-4)…Only loss to LSU, 9-6
  3. Oregon (8-1)…At Stanford (9-0)…Only loss to LSU,40-24
  4. Stanford (9-0)…Home to Oregon (8-1)…A complete team
  5. Oklahoma State (9-0)…At Texas Tech (5-4)…Great offense, no defense
  6. Wisconsin (7-2)…At Minnesota (2-7)…Two losses on last-second plays
  7. Boise State (8-0)…Home to TCU (7-2)…Absolutely no weaknesses
  8. Oklahoma (8-1)…Off this week…Talent to beat anybody
  9. Arkansas (8-1)…Home to Tennessee (5-4)…Close season at LSU
  10. Clemson (8-1)…Home to Wake Forest (5-4)…May be better than this

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