Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, November 10, 2011 at 10:56 PM
The college basketball season has just started. And, the North Carolina-Michigan State game Friday Night on ESPN is the first big TV matchup of the new season. That makes this the ideal time to go over some Advanced Handicapping strategies for college hoops.
Well, that and the fact that I’m so RED HOT in football right now that I need to protect my planned releases this weekend. I’m just not going to risk giving away a strategy that might disclose what one of my NOVEMBER TO REMEMBER bombshells is going to be in the next few days. Hey, it’s already been a NOVEMBER TO REMEMBER in the first few days of the package given one of the biggest hot streaks on unit-rated plays in documented history. I’m just getting started!
I trust by now that you know where and how to purchase KELSO STURGEON’S selections here at the website. Be sure you do so tonight, through the weekend, and through the month so we can keep the money rolling in. You get more bang for your buck by purchasing the entire November package up front.
Let’s talk basketball. If you’re a serious player, you already know the fundamentals of early season college hoops. I’m not going to repeat what others have already talked about this week. This is a course in ADVANCED handicapping, not an introduction to the sport for newcomers.
Some advanced techniques you should be looking at this week and through all pre-conference play in college basketball:
*Tabulate career starts for every point guard, and log his career turnover to assist ratio. This can be very time consuming if you’re trying to handicap the board. But, as I’ve mentioned often in the past on my videos…your success as a Las Vegas bettor is directly tied to the time you spend handicapping. If you’re not ready to do this for every single board team…at least do this for the teams in your favorite conference…and for teams currently ranked in the top 25. You’ll be surprised how many winners jump off the page just by knowing this information.
*Study defensive rebounding strengths and weaknesses. Far too many of you throw down Power Ratings on a page and call it handicapping. When teams are on the floor, games aren’t won and lost by Power Ratings! They’re won and lost by defense and rebounding. Studying defensive rebounds gives you great insights into both of those areas at one time. Look up the stats from last year at sites like www.kenpom.com. Be sure you’re aware of returning starters across the front line. As new games are played this season, be sure you’re looking at the rebound category in the boxscores.
*Determine which teams tend to emphasize three-pointers on offense…and which teams prefer to work the ball inside. This is very important in November and December action because oddsmakers have very little time to think about matchups. Lines don’t properly account for how well three-point teams shoot at home…and how poorly they shoot on the road in gyms they’ve never been to before. Lines don’t properly account for how dominant inside teams can be against soft defenses…but how turnover-prone they become against strong defenses.
I’ll have more to say about college basketball as we get deeper in the season. And, once college football ends in a month or so, we can really get down and dirty in this sport. For now, these tips will get you started. I hope at the very least that when you’re watching games on TV, you find yourself focusing on point guards, defensive rebounding, and styles of play.
Too many newcomers think that stats and math models represent advanced handicapping. I can tell you with absolute certainly that Coach K at Duke and John Calipari at Kentucky don’t take the square root of something…then multiple it by pi to figure out how they’re going to win a game. They recruit quality talent and teach the fundamentals. If you’re going to beat the oddsmakers, you need to have a very solid grasp of what actually wins college basketball games.
Thanks for reading this entry in my continuing College of Advanced Handicapping course. I’ll be back again early next week for the next edition. Thanks to all of you who have been winning with me on a daily basis in recent weeks. I told you in my videos that Vegas lines were generally getting tighter…but you could still find bad mistakes if you knew where to look. Be sure you watch my online videos this week for the very latest developments on bad numbers and big releases.