Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, November 14, 2011 at 10:06 PM
A review of my 200-unit winner on Rutgers over Army and my 100-unit Upset of the Year on TCU over Boise State reveals key lessons that practitioners of advanced handicapping should always keep in mind. Among them….talent edges are meaningful for the FULL 60 minutes, and aggression beats fear!
Let me start with my 200-unit winner on Rutgers over Army. I had several good reasons for that play which I’ll go over momentarily. I have to admit it was frustrating that my overwhelming edges in talent and gamebreakers took so long to show up on the scoreboard. If you watched the game on TV, you know the turf conditions at Yankee Stadium were an embarrassment to the sport of college football. It was very difficult to get traction because huge clumps of sod would give way under a cut to the right or left. When you have the BETTER athletes, this can be a monkey wrench!
Luckily, talent did eventually win out in terms of getting the money. Here are some of the key reasons I liked Rutgers.
*Rutgers had a tremendous edge in football talent. I love the heart and spirit of the Army kids, and all of us should salute the military teams and appreciate what they do for our country. Rutgers had more playmakers, including receiver Mohamed Sanu, who set a Big East single season record for catches thanks to his 13 grabs. I’ve told you time and time again in my videos that advanced handicapping starts first with a look at talent and playmakers.
*Army was starting a backup quarterback who was a very poor passer, and who was even timid when it came to pitching on the option play. This greatly diminished their chances to get much on the scoreboard. Great kid, not a big play threat.
*Army’s heart and spirit were going to be down a bit because they were coming off a heartbreaking loss to Air Force….one of the worst Air Force teams I’ve ever seen by the way! Army led by two touchdowns entering the second half against Air Force before fading down the stretch. That meant, in this game vs. Rutgers, I would be fading a demoralized team that had already shown that it wears down in the fourth quarter. Advanced handicapping means you’re handicapping ALL FOUR QUARTERS of a game! Many of my big play winners this year didn’t need a fourth quarter “ace up my sleeve” to get the money. This week I did. But, I HAD THAT ACE because Army was likely to wear down late given their physical and emotional limitations.
*Rutgers had a big edge in special teams. This is a program that’s well-known for producing points with its special teams by way of kick returns or blocked punts. I won’t say I was counting on certain points in this manner. But, I believed strongly that there was a very good likelihood that Rutgers would pick up cheap points somewhere along the way. I wish their blocked punt TD had come in the first quarter instead of the fourth quarter in terms of everyone’s blood pressure. Our edge in this area did pay off eventually. Let me put this frankly. If you’re not analyzing special teams play in every game you consider, then you’re not an Advanced handicapper.
I don’t win all of my top plays. Nobody could. The nature of football makes that impossible. But, when you get a major release from KELSO STURGEON, it’s usually a game that has blowout potential up front AND late-game insurance just in case the breaks go against us. The poor quality of the turf was a bad break, as no reports hand indicated things would be THAT bad on the field. And, losing the turnover category 2-0 was also a bad break. The more talented team usually wins that category. We STILL got the money because the handicapping edges were so strong.
With TCU…well, you know what happened there. An AGGRESSIVE team with nothing to lose played its best game of the year against a favored opponent who was AFRAID OF LOSING. The Boise State defense in particular was very timid, at least in terms of pass defense. TCU threw for 473 yards on just 24 completions! And, when the game was on the line with just over two minutes to go, Boise let TCU go 73 yards in 7 plays with just 1:21 going off the clock.
Understanding the importance of motivation, aggression, and playing with confidence is a very important part of Advanced handicapping. I’d say that’s particularly true in college football in November as fired up underdogs take aim at highly regarded opponents who are either playing for BCS rankings or conference championships. Oregon came to win at Stanford, which was a free pick I gave out in my Saturday video here at the website. Stanford was just as timid here as they were vs. USC a couple of weeks ago.
You still have plenty of time to take advantage of today’s themes through the rest of college football. If you want ME to do the work while you make the money, sign up for the rest of my NOVEMBER TO REMEMBER package.
Thanks for reading this entry in my continuing College of Advanced Handicapping course. I’ll be back again late in the week for the next edition. Thanks to all of you who have been winning with me on a daily basis in recent weeks. I have absolutely been ON FIRE the past few weeks. It’s gratifying to know so many of you are winning with me