Submitted by SportsMasters Consensus on Wednesday, January 02, 2013 at 12:04 PM
College football isn’t taking any time off after its annual New Year’s Day extravaganza, and neither are the sharp sports bettors. The Wise Guys have made their presence felt on the Over/Under in Wednesday Night’s Sugar Bowl matching the Florida Gators and the Louisville Cardinals. And, they may come in strong on the team side too before kickoff depending on how much public action comes in during the day.
FLORIDA vs. LOUISVILLE
Opening Line: Florida by 14, total of 45.5
Current Line: Florida by 14, total of 48
Let’s start with the total, because that’s where we’ve seen the biggest move TODAY. We were sitting at 46 yesterday, but the number has jumped two points in the early hours of January 2 before we went to press. Yes, some of that is square money because the public likes to bet Overs…and the public has been betting this game. But, we’re hearing that sharps did come in strong at 46, 46.5, 47, and 47.5.
That might strike you as odd because the game involves a Florida team that’s known for playing low scoring affairs. Why the interest in the Over?
*The game is indoors, where scoring conditions are ideal
*Indoor games also allow athletic teams to show off their speed
*SEC powers lit up the scoreboard yesterday vs. overmatched defenses
*Louisville from the lesser Big East is likely to have an overmatched defense
*SEC defenses are great at setting up cheap points by forcing turnovers
It’s not that sharps are expecting Florida to ring up 45 points by themselves like Georgia did, or average 500 total yards like Georgia and South Carolina did in tandem. The point is that the posted Vegas total was too low in the view of the sharps for the style of play Florida is likely to bring to an indoor game against undermanned Louisville. South Carolina and Michigan had a total of 47.5 yesterday outdoors, and the game reached 61. Georgia and Nebraska got steamed Over by smart money in dramatic fashion, and the game was at 47 points at HALFTIME on the way to 76 outdoors in nice weather.
Our sources are saying the sharps are mostly done at 48 because that’s a common number. If you see additional movement before kickoff, that’s likely a bandwagon effect created by the public.
On the team side, there has been limited sharp interest.
*The old school guys who bet all double digit underdogs did take some Louisville at +14, enough to drop the line to +13.5 for an extended period.
*Sharps who don’t mind laying chalk with defensive powers pushed the line back to -14, but no higher.
There are indications early on game day that the public is going to take Florida. Some -14.5’s were popping up as we went to press. It wouldn’t be a shock for squares to take the line to -15 or even higher. We are hearing that sharps are lying in wait for a shot at Louisville +15 or better. The old school guys bet early on principal. Others who liked the dog are waiting to see what they can get before kickoff. Sharps who took a flyer on the favorite did so at -13.5, and are done betting this game unless a huge middle develops from passionate public support for Florida.
How did New Year’s Day go for you? Our handicapping legends here at VegasSportsMasters are ready for the challenges at hand the next few days in major college and NFL matchups. Big play bulletins and complete package descriptions are available on our “buy picks” page. Don’t forget that basketball gets very busy starting TONIGHT as many college conferences begin or continue league play.
Are next sharp report will be midday Thursday when we study what the Wise Guys have been doing in the much anticipated Oregon-Kansas State game. See you then. For now…check out what the best brains in the handicapping business are doing in Wednesday football and basketball!