Submitted by SportsMasters Consensus on Wednesday, December 26, 2012 at 11:32 PM
We’ll be posting our special college football “sharp reports” overnight here at Vegas SportsMasters whenever there’s afternoon bowl action. That’s the case Thursday, and will continue until after New Year’s. Sharps have been very active in all three bowls on the card. Let’s run through the games in schedule order…
SAN JOSE STATE vs. BOWLING GREEN
Opening Line: San Jose State by 7.5, total of 47
Current Line: San Jose State by 7, total of 44
Big sharp interested here on the Under. We have two teams who played excellent defense vs. their schedules this season. Then, you throw in weather that’s could be tough for offenses (temperatures forecast in the high 30’s, with winds in the 15-20 mph range here at RFK Stadium in Washington, DC), and this has the potential to be a defensive struggle. Let’s not forget the potential for rustiness too after long layoffs.
On the team side, sharps bet the dog down to the key number of seven, but not through it. There are indications that the public is going to hit the favorite in the hours leading up to kickoff. We’re hearing that sharps will fade any move off the key number…but might delay that action to see if they can get +8 or better. Sharps like defensive dogs, particularly in defensive weather.
CINCINNATI vs. DUKE
Opening Line: Cincinnati by 10, total of 58
Lowest Point: Cincinnati by 7
Current Line: Cincinnati by 9.5, total of 60.5
Sharps hit Duke pretty hard early on. That’s why we put in an extra line there for the low point. Smart money dropped the Vegas line from one key number (+10) all the way down to another (+7). Favorite money has been coming in recently…and there’s a chance the public may drive the line all the way back to the opener. Be assured that sharps are very well positioned here. Some are shooting middles with the 7 and the 10. Those who have a preference for either side got great numbers. Sharps will be back on Duke for more before kickoff if the public lifts the line.
The total here has been bet Over at 58, 59, and 60. The temperature will be similar here in
Charlotte (home field of the Carolina Panthers) to what you see in Washington. But the wind will have died down by this late afternoon kickoff. No wind…with Duke’s tendencies for shootouts, and you have definite scoring potential. Duke has the third weakest defense we’ve seen so far in terms of stat rankings. Those who were worse, Toledo and Arizona, allowed 41 and 48 points respectively.
BAYLOR vs. UCLA
Opening Line: UCLA by 1, total of 77.5
Current Line: UCLA by 3, total of 82
We’ve seen a really big move in recent days on the Bruins. Both Wise Guy and public money was coming in on UCLA. That drove the line to a key number…and it DIDN’T bounce back toward the dog once there. Sharps who had UCLA early on are happy with their positions. It will be interesting to see if the public drives the line higher before kickoff. There’s a lot of Los Angeles money that finds its way to Vegas. UCLA is the hot new flavor in tinseltown this year.
The total has also seen a lot of interest, as you can tell by that move. It takes less money to move totals. And, this is one that oddsmakers were concerned about anyway. They had a hair trigger when it was clear the market was going to expect another Baylor shootout. It may shock some of you that sharps saw a total of 80 or 81 and still bet the Over. Baylor won its bowl game last year 67-56! RGIII isn’t there any more. Sharp interested stopped at 82.
Now you know what the sharps liked at earlier lines. What should YOU do at the game day numbers? Our legends here at VSM focus on game day lines for their clients. And they’re legends for a reason! Check out our “buy picks” page here at the website for today’s big play bulletins. Then make plans to do that every day from now through the BCS Championship game matching Notre Dame and Alabama in a couple of weeks.
Our next sharp report will run overnight Thursday to get you ready for the Independence, Russell Athletic, and Meineke Car Care Bowl tripleheader on Friday. Visit VSM every day through the bowl bonanza!