Submitted by SportsMasters Consensus on Wednesday, December 26, 2012 at 12:06 PM
We’ve reached the point in the bowl season where it becomes very important for sports bettors to know what’s causing a line move. The public generally isn’t very active in early postseason games because of holiday time demands and the scarcity of high profile teams. That ended Monday when heavy public money came in on Fresno State and the Over through the afternoon for “the only game in town.” The same could happen Wednesday with just one bowl on the card…and then repeatedly from this point forward with more high profile teams taking the field.
WHEN SHARPS BET
*At the Opener
*When there’s news about an injury
*When there’s news about a suspension
*When there’s news regarding the weather
*If early results provide hints about later bowls
*Near the Closer if the public has moved the line in a way that’s created new value
WHEN AND WHAT SQUARES BET
*On game day, typically in the few hours leading up to kickoff
*Favorites and Overs
We’ll provide daily updates to let you know what sharps have been betting on each bowl game going forward. If you see line moves after our article is posted that can’t be traced to injury news or weather, assume that it’s a square move caused by public money.
LITTLE CAESAR’S BOWL
WESTERN KENTUCKY vs. CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Opening Line: Western Kentucky by 6, total of 60
Current Line: Western Kentucky by 6.5, total of 57.5
Sharps initially were looking at the underdog here, as the opening line of Western Kentucky -6 dropped down to -5.5 or even -5. But, that’s reversed with the poor showing so far for the Mid American Conference. Toledo and Ball State both lost badly in their bowls (to Utah State and Louisiana Lafayette respectively). Central Michigan was worse than those teams are. Sharps have driven the line past the opener without reaching the key number of seven. That represents support for the favorite, but not passionate support. If you see a line move to seven or beyond before kickoff, that’s from the public. We are hearing that sharps would consider Central Michigan at +7.5 or higher…and possibly even +7 right before kickoff if that proves to be the apex. Sharps realize it’s possible BOTH of these conferences are overrated. Louisiana Lafayette did cover against Ball State, but that came on a field goal in the final moments.
The big sharp move here has been on the total, with the line plummeting 2.5 points even though it’s being played indoors. Sharps tend to bet bowl Overs indoors, and Unders in deteriorating grass fields or in wet or breezy weather. Sharps hitting a bowl Under is already important. Driving it this low suggests a strong opinion. Sharps did stop once the number dropped below 58.
The experts here at VegasSportsMasters became industry legends because of their ability to beat game day lines for customers. You know what the sharps bet early. What should YOU bet at the new lines that are available the rest of the day? Check out our “buy picks” page here at the website for big play bulletins from our proven winners. Then make plans to do that every day from now through the BCS Championship game matching Notre Dame and Alabama in a couple of weeks.
Our next sharp report will run early Thursday to get you ready for the Military, Belk, and Holiday Bowl tripleheader.
The best way to think like a sharp and bet like a sharp on GAME DAY is to link up with the biggest names in the business here at VegasSportsMasters!