Submitted by SportsMasters Consensus on Thursday, December 20, 2012 at 10:00 PM
handicappers prefer to wait for the marquee bowl games that hit the schedule
just after Christmas. Sharps (professional wagerers) in Las Vegas and offshore
have known for years that many of the best options come in the EARLY games that
the public isn’t paying attention to. Oddsmakers don’t follow mid-major teams
as closely as they should. Sharps cherry-pick the mistakes and attack.
You’ve already seen plenty
of that so far in December action. Let’s see what the sharps are betting in
Friday Night’s Beef O’Brady’s Bowl from St. Petersburg, Florida.
BALL STATE vs. CENTRAL
Opening Line: Central
Florida by 7.5, total of 63
Current Line: Central
Florida by 7, total of 61.5
The lines have been up
since early December for the bowls now. Initial response from sharps was to bet
Central Florida a bit higher. The line did reach -8 or even -8.5 in the first
few days after open. But, underdog money was soon to follow…and the line has
now been sitting right on the key number of seven for a couple of weeks at most
*There was more
interest on the dog than the favorite from the Wise Guys. Limited early
interest on the favorite was trumped by much more serious interest on the dog.
*There wasn’t much
interest on the favorite even when the line hit a key number. That’s telling.
We didn’t see it “bouncing around” a line of Central Florida -7.5. It sunk to
-7 and stayed solid.
*There’s a virtual
certainty that sharps will buy back more on Ball State if the public comes in
on the favorite through the day Friday. The public often bets favorites in
bowls…but is prone to focus its attention on big name teams or highly marketed
bowl matchups. Ball State-Central Florida doesn’t have much going for it in
terms of public interest beyond being the only football game on Friday Night
The total has been bet
Under, which is interesting because this game is indoors. Sharps will typically
bet Overs in domes in these early bowls because you usually have borderline
defenses who aren’t able to keep up on a fast track. Some math guys have told
us that they add 4-5 points to what would have been a regular season projection
for indoor bowls. Given that backdrop, this Under money represents a stronger
sentiment than you might have realized.
Sharps are on Ball
State at anything higher than seven. Sharps like Under 63, Under 62.5, and
Of course, YOU have to
handicap against game day lines. Nobody’s better at that than the experts here
at VegasSportsMasters. Our handicapping legends have built their reputations by
winning for customers at widely available prices in the immediate hours before
kickoff. Check out the “buy picks” page to find out what’s on tap today. Many
of the guys have combination packages that include Saturdays bowls and weekend
Look for the option
that best suits your bankroll, knowing that hot handicappers are always waiting
to hear from you!
Friday Afternoon: NFL
Saturday's Bowl Outlook
Monday: Hawaii Bowl
We will continue
expanded coverage of the markets through the bowls and the NFL playoffs. The
best way to think like a sharp and bet like a sharp is to link up with the
experts at VegasSportsMasters!