Submitted by SportsMasters Consensus on Thursday, December 20, 2012 at 12:42 PM
There’s been some game day betting action in Thursday Night’s Poinsettia Bowl matching BYU and San Diego State that sports bettors must stay on top of through the course of the day. This new action represents a course change from early sharp money, and is going in the opposition direction you would expect if squares (the public) were driving the line.
BYU vs. SAN DIEGO STATE
Opening Line: BYU by 3, total of 50
Current Line: BYU by 3 or 3.5, total of 47.5
BYU had been bet up by sharps to a solid -3.5 that had stood pat for quite some time. You regular readers know that a line of -3.5 represents a fairly strong sharp opinion on the favorite. Any stable, widely available number that’s a half point away from a critical number is announcing a preference by the mere fact that it didn’t move back to the key number.
Well, Thursday morning, that buy back did start to happen. Sharps who liked San Diego State (playing on their home field by the way) figured they weren’t going to get better than +3.5 and stepped in on the home underdog. The market isn’t seeing a lot of public action yet on bowls (more than you get on basketball, but not much in terms of what usually shapes the market…or in terms of what you’ll see in the marquee college matchups down the road). What happened early today was also from sharps.
So, we currently have a tug-of-war scenario with BYU getting support at -2.5 and at -3, but San Diego State getting support at +3.5.
We strongly encourage you market followers to watch the number from now until kickoff. Were the line to move down to SDSU +2.5 or even lower…that would suggest huge support for the dog. That would mean that the early move on BYU gave a false read because much greater SDSU support was lying in wait. If the line bounces up to BYU -3.5…then it’s a true tug-of-war with relatively balanced sentiment (and Vegas sportsbooks praying the game doesn’t land on exactly 3 because then nobody would lose!)
One thing that everyone can agree on is the total. The opener of 50 was bet down fairly quickly to 48. It stayed at 48 for a lengthy period, only to drop again earlier today down to 47.5. The totals guys loved the Under at 50 and 49. Value bettors still felt profit was there to be had at Under 48. That’s also a number to monitor during the day to see if the downward trend continues…or if there’s any buyback toward the Over.
Note that the weather forecast is for clear skies and pleasant temperatures in San Diego. Under sentiment might be based on the caliber of field conditions on the grass surface, but isn’t connected to the weather based on what we’ve heard from our contacts.
We’ve expanded our coverage of sharp betting action for the college bowl campaign. Look for daily reports whenever there are bowl games, and our standard NFL updates (Friday for the weekend, with a bonus update on Mondays through these last two weeks of the regular season).
If you’re having trouble deciding how you want to play Thursday’s Poinsettia Bowl, our industry legends are waiting to hear from you! Many have great offers on the table right now that include all the bowl games through the weekend. Lock in now at the best lines and save money in the process. Complete details are available on our “buy picks” page here at the website.
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