HANDICAPPING NOTEBOOK

NATIONAL POWERS SHOW VULNERABILITY ON FINAL WEEKEND BEFORE THE DANCE

North Carolina trailed much of the day against Virginia Tech before pulling out a late victory. Virginia Tech may be NIT-bound even with this strong showing.

Kansas couldn't shake a Texas A&M team that closed the season very unimpressively. In fact, this was a team they just beat relatively easily ON THE ROAD the prior weekend.

Wisconsin trailed for almost the entire game against Michigan State before stealing a late victory.

Duke, a team that seemed headed for a top seed not too long ago, lost to Clemson.

Suddenly, the superpowers didn't seem so super any more!

Of course, this often happens during conference tournaments. The big name teams start looking ahead to the Dance. Lesser lights get sky high for their shots at upsets. Time will tell if these tight results were just a short term fluke because of flat favorites...or if we're likely to seen a barrage of buzzer beaters in the coming weeks.

Let's crunch the numbers from the Saturday afternoon games so we can see what REALLY happened. 

CUSA CHAMPIONSHIP

MEMPHIS 77, TULSA 51
Shooting Percentage: Tulsa 37%, Memphis 57%
Three-Pointers: Tulsa 4/17, Memphis 11/22
Free Throws: Tulsa 7/10, Memphis 6/10
Rebounds: Tulsa 28, Memphis 28
Turnovers: Tulsa 11, Memphis 7
"Phantom Score": Tulsa 60, Memphis 66
Vegas Line: Memphis by 17, total of 131
Comments: This had to be the least suspenseful tournament ever played. It surpassed last year's horrible CUSA tournament for that honor. Memphis didn't cover its first two games, but sent a message here by jumping out to a huge early lead and coasting home. Of course, it's not much of a message if nobody is listening anyway. And, who in their right mind would spend time watching this game?! Memphis will get a top seed in the Dance...but will have to sweat at least one nailbiter to reach the Final Four. If they don't make free throws in crunch time, they may find themselves watching the Final Four with the rest of us again this year.

ACC SEMIFINALS

NORTH CAROLINA 68, VIRGINIA TECH 66
Shooting Percentage: Virginia Tech 40%, North Carolina 40%
Three-Pointers: Virginia Tech 5/17, North Carolina 5/14
Free Throws: Virginia Tech 15/20, North Carolina 15/19
Rebounds: Virginia Tech 30, North Carolina 39
Turnovers: Virginia Tech 12, North Carolina 17
"Phantom Score": Virginia Tech 66, North Carolina 77
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 11, total of 146
Comments: Virginia Tech just missed pulling off the shocker. The studio shows were sure the Hokies weren't going to the Dance without a victory here. A nailbiter loss muddies the picture. How can you leave the #4 seed of the ACC tournament out? How can you do that if #5 is definitely in and #6 was on the bubble before losing? Number four is definitely out? We're not the biggest fans of the Hokies this year. But, playing in a power conference has to count for something, even if it's a fading power conference. If number four in the Big Ten gets in, it's hard to see how Virginia Tech doesn't in terms of fairness. This is the time of year we keep warning you that North Carolina and Duke are overrated. The Heels played strong defense here, won rebounding handily, yet STILL had to sweat the game against a borderline Dance squad on neutral court because of turnovers. They're just not head and shoulders above the world once it becomes playoff style basketball. Neither is Duke, as you're about to see again.

CLEMSON 78, DUKE 74
Shooting Percentage: Clemson 51%, Duke 43%
Three-Pointers: Clemson 7/19, Duke 6/26
Free Throws: Clemson 15/22, Duke 16/17
Rebounds: Clemson 29, Duke 29
Turnovers: Clemson 16, Duke 16
"Phantom Score": Clemson 71, Duke 69
Vegas Line: Duke by 4.5, total of 151
Comments: We're still waiting for the ESPN graphic that explains why Duke keeps underachieving in big postseason games. Dick Vitale won't talk about it. He still thinks JJ Redick is going to be an NBA superstar. Bob Knight was asked who he thought the best team to watch was. He said Duke, without mentioning that Coach K has spent his career publicly worshipping Knight like he invented the game. COULD SOMEBODY BESIDES US PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH ABOUT DUKE?!  When they don't get friendly officiating, they become very ordinary. When the three's don't fall, which his bound to happen sometimes on neutral courts against decent opposition, they look even less than ordinary. When they're playing a team that doesn't panic, the internal defense stands by and watches people dunk. In the postseason, you run into teams who don't panic, unfriendly shooting environments, and refs who won't rig the game in front of national TV cameras! Look at the numbers. Duke shot few free throw attempts than Clemson. Duke was 6 of 26 from three-point land. Duke let Clemson shoot 51% for the game, and almost 60% from inside the arc. THIS IS DUKE. Don't listen to the man behind the curtain. He's telling you a story.

BIG TEN SEMIFNALS

WISCONSIN 65, MICHIGAN STATE 63
Shooting Percentage: Michigan State 42%, Wisconsin 37%
Three-Pointers: Michigan State 7/15, Wisconsin 5/17
Free Throws: Michigan State 14/19, Wisconsin 26/37
Rebounds: Michigan State 26, Wisconsin 34
Turnovers: Michigan State 11, Wisconsin 11
"Phantom Score": Michigan State 54, Wisconsin 58
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 3, total of 119
Comments: Michigan State led the entire game except when it mattered. We give Wisconsin credit for hanging tough and finding a way to get the win. But, this is back-to-back horrible shooting days as a number one seed in a week tournament. They needed to be +12 on made free throws just to win the game by two points. Rebounding and turnovers were solid. But, they're supposed to be for a #1 seed in a weak conference. The projected brackets are showing Wisconsin with a cushy seed, apparently oblivious to the fact that they couldn't reach the Sweet 16 last year as a #2 seed (losing to #7 UNLV in the second round). There are enough questionable teams out there that the Big Ten could get a friendly draw. They're still on our "go against" list until we see the brackets. For now, we'd say that every team going to the dance is about three seeds higher than they should be. Maybe four. Indiana isn't even a tourney caliber team at this point. Purdue might have run out of gas. Wisconsin couldn't beat Purdue.

ILLINOIS 54, MINNESOTA 50
Shooting Percentage: Illinois 44%, Minnesota 39%
Three-Pointers: Illinois 4/10, Minnesota 4/12
Free Throws: Illinois 16/22, Minnesota 14/21
Rebounds: Illinois 25, Minnesota 23
Turnovers: Illinois 11, Minnesota 10
"Phantom Score": Illinois 51, Minnesota 47
Vegas Line: Illinois by 2, total of 120
Comments: We mentioned in our SPOTLIGHT preview coverage that Illinois was a lot better than their seed. We weren't expecting a run to the finals! But they were obviously in the friendly half of the brackets. Purdue was vulnerable. Indiana had fallen off the map. The finals berth was there for the taking, and the Illini outlasted Minnesota for a shot an actual bid to the NCAA tournament. Wouldn't that be a travesty? This conference is already overrated...and now somebody as bad as Illinois might get into the Dance! Hopefully they'll kick Indiana out just out of fairness. If a Big Ten team shoots over 45% in a game the whole region will throw them a parade.

BIG 12 SEMIFINALS

TEXAS 77, OKLAHOMA 49
Shooting Percentage: Oklahoma 33%, Texas 50%
Three-Pointers: Oklahoma 4/23, Texas 10/22
Free Throws: Oklahoma 5/6, Texas 13/20
Rebounds: Oklahoma 31, Texas 35
Turnovers: Oklahoma 10, Texas 7
"Phantom Score": Oklahoma 63, Texas 69
Vegas Line: Texas by 5.5, total of 127
Comments: Texas was far from impressive in their opener against Oklahoma State. They made up for that here with an absolute blowout. If you shoot 50% from the field while making only seven turnovers in a tournament semifinal...you're playing about as well as is possible. This isn't a non-conference tune up against UT San Antonio. The Horns are still vulnerable on the boards...and still don't force enough turnovers to really take command of a game defensively. They have re-established themselves as a contender with this blowout. That's particularly true on a day where Duke lost and North Carolina almost did.

KANSAS 77, TEXAS A&M 71
Shooting Percentage: Texas A&M 44%, Kansas 54%
Three-Pointers: Texas A&M 9/26, Kansas 6/13
Free Throws: Texas A&M 14/20, Kansas 15/20
Rebounds: Texas A&M 29, Kansas 23
Turnovers: Texas A&M 13, Kansas 7
"Phantom Score": Texas A&M 59, Kansas 67
Vegas Line: Kansas by 10.5, total of 129
Comments: This was an odd game. Kansas would move out to a comfortable 8-point lead...looking to all the world that they were ready to run away and hide...then suddenly A&M would be right back in it. Kansas led by that much with three-minutes to go in the first half...and didn't score again. It was tied at the half. Kansas was ready to put things out of reach in the latter twenty minutes. Suddenly they were sweating the ending. Note that they had to sweat the ending despite outshooting the Aggies 54-44%, and despite winning turnovers 13-7. Kansas played WELL and still had to sweat the ending against a team that's been playing poorly in recent weeks. It seems to happen to the Jayhawks this year at every time. They're great at running up the score when things are clicking. They can't consistently dominate lesser teams once they get on neutral courts in March. Remember that in two weeks.

SEC DELAYED QUARTERFINAL

GEORGIA 60, KENTUCKY 56 (in OT)
Shooting Percentage: Georgia 40%, Kentucky 35%
Three-Pointers: Georgia 4/13, Kentucky 4/19
Free Throws: Georgia 14/21, Kentucky 16/25
Rebounds: Georgia 32, Kentucky 37
Turnovers: Georgia 15, Kentucky 14
"Phantom Score": Georgia 66, Kentucky 65
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 3.5, total of 125
Comments: Once they decided to play this game, the Under was bound to make a lot of sense. The prior day had been emotionally draining for both teams. Now, they had to play an early tip in front of a three-quarters empty arena. The game almost stayed Under by double digits even with the overtime period! Kentucky is still probably in the Dance even with the loss. So many other teams are losing it's hard to keep them out. Georgia would go on to play an evening semifinal against Mississippi State after our publication deadlines. The winner would get the winner of Arkansas/Tennessee in a Sunday afternoon showdown that will officially bring to an end conference tournament play for the season.

We'll run through all the championship games for you in a huge Monday report. That will include all title tilts from Saturday Night and Sunday afternoon. Most of the teams involved will be playing in the Big Dance...so don't you dare miss that report!

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