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NFL WEEK #16 IS OFF AND WINGIN' WITH VIKES-PACKERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT (OKAY, BRETT, SO IS THIS THE "LAST TIME" IN LAMBEAU?) ...
PLUS LAS VEGAS BOWL & NEW ORLEANS BOWL PREVIEWS

By Jim Hurley

It's that time of the year to tear open your presents and get all pumped up and what could ever be better gifts now than wall-to-wall Football these next couple of weeks?
     
In today's edition of Jim Sez we deliver quick-hitter Previews of the first game of this NFL Week #16 -- the Minnesota Vikings at the Green Bay Packers -- plus we chuck in a pair of Bowl Games too (see below) with a reminder that our next couple of columns are chock full of more NFL Week #16/College Bowl Previews plus key Spread Notes and other pigskin goodies -- get 'em while they're hot!
     
Jim Hurley and his group of Handicappers and Bloggers remind you that they have all the Football Winners when you log online right here at www.jimhurley.com or when you call the toll-free telephone # of 1-800-323-4453 or 1-900-990-9997 (only $25) after 1pm ET on weekdays and after 9:30am ET on weekends, holidays and when there are matinee weekday games.
    
Reminder: You can still sign up today for Jim's Special Package deal -- "Bash the Bowls and Plunder the Playoffs" -- and for the holiday fee of $125 (a savings of $175 over the regular price) you can get all the College Bowls and the NFL Playoffs including advice on parlays, totals and teasers.
    
So, what are you waiting for?
    
Now, let's get to a busy mid-week Football column here with Thursday night's NFL tilt:

    
MINNESOTA (6-8) at GREEN BAY (6-8)

t's your stage (again), Brett Favre.
    
The going, going, almost gone playoff hopes of both these NFC North teams is certainly not the story here but the icon Packers quarterback is (what else is new!) as this could be the last time he plays a game at historic Lambeau Field.
    
Obviously, Favre and the Packers and the media at-large have been down this road before and may continue to go down this road for the next couple of years but Green Bay's slinger might just be playing his final home game here and the irony is that while his Hall of Fame career could be just about to end (the Packers finish the '06 season at Chicago on New Year's Eve) this will mark the starting debut of Minny QB Tarvaris Jackson who gave the Vikes a little energy surge in last Sunday's disappointing 26-13 home loss against the New York Jets.
    
Jackson came into that game in the late stages of the third quarter after the Metrodome crowd lustily booed starter Brad Johnson right off the field and the Alabama State rookie completed 14-of-23 passes for 177 yards with one touchdown and one interception and so that puts him way back of Favre in both categories.
    
Among Favre's starry stats heading into this game are 413 touchdown passes -- that's seven behind one-time Miami Dolphins' great Dan Marino for first place -- and 56, 930 yards passing.
    
Chuck in the fact that Favre's starting his 256st consecutive start and he's 88-29 SU (straightup) in his career in Lambeau Field starts and you know there's lots of magic brewing here -- even if Favre throws late and over the middle as he's been prone to do his entire career.
    
Right now, Favre's 2006 stats include 17 TDs and 15 INTs while completing 57 percent of his passes worth 3,315 yards and the Green Bay great will try to register a season sweep over the Vikings: The Packers copped a 23-17 win at the Metrodome as five-point underdogs back in Week #10 play.
     
Will there be a "Lambeau Leap" or two for Favre in his possible home finale?
     
We'll see.
     
Spread Notes -- The Packers are just 3-8 ATS (against the spread) when hosting the archrival Vikings dating back the past 10 years and note that includes Minnesota's 31-17 playoff win in 2004 as 6 1/2-point road underdogs. Green Bay's covered two-of-three games this year when in the favorite's role and note the Pack is 7-12-1 ATS as the chalk dating back to late in the 2003 campaign. The Vikes come into this prime-time tilt at 4-4 spreadwise this year as underdogs but just 6-11 ATS as pups since late '04.

    
In other NFL Week #16 News & Notes ...

Now, here's your up-to-date NFL Pointspread standings followed by NFL Spread Notes:
   
NFL Betting Favorites are a rotten 96-117-6 ATS (with five pick 'em games) so far this 2006 season and that's a dismal .451 winning rate for the chalk-eaters.
    
Last week, NFL Betting Favorites went a dead-even but vig-losing 8-8 spreadwise and to find the last time that NFL Betting Favorites sported a better-than-.500 mark in a week you've got to go all the way back to Week #8 (really) when faves copped an 8-6 ATS log ... wow!
    
While we're on the topic, here's a few team-by-team updates:
    
The Buffalo Bills have covered their last seven games in a row and have not suffered a spread setback since Oct. 22nd (a 28-6 home loss versus he 5 1/2-point-favored New England Patriots);
    
The Carolina Panthers have lost their last four spread verdicts in a row and that's the team's second four-game spread losing skid this year;
    
The Kansas City now have lost their last three in a row versus the vig and you have to go back to 2004 to find the last time the Chiefs dropped four in a row to the Las Vegas numbers;
    
The Oakland Raiders -- surprise, surprise -- have lost their last three in a row against the odds and did you know this AFC West crew is a composite 20-40-2 ATS since that dreadful loss in Super Bowl XXXVII?;
    
The Pittsburgh Steelers have notched spread wins in their last three consecutive games -- remember last year when the Steelers went 7-0-1 ATS to cap their brilliant Super Bowl-winning season;
     
And the scorching-hot Tennessee Titans have covered six in a row while heading into Sunday's game in Buffalo and note Tennessee's won five in a row in upset fashion.
    

MORE COLLEGE BOWL PREVIEWS

Let's roll on with more College Bowls beginning with this Thursday Night tilt:
 
LAS VEGAS BOWL
Sam Boyd Stadium -- Las Vegas, NV

OREGON (8-4) vs. BYU (10-2)
Here's one of the more interesting so-called minor bowl matchups out there as the BYU Cougars (from the Mountain West Conference) are the betting favorites against the Oregon Ducks (Pac-10) and it's not often that a non-Bowl Championship Series squad is laying points against a BCS unit ... right?
    
Plus, throw in the fact that these teams have completely different slants on this 2006 season:
    
BYU is attempting to cap a wonderful renaissance campaign -- remember that the Coogs have played .500-or-less ball for the past four seasons prior to this born-again campaign -- and QB John Beck is at the center of the comeback.
    
The MWC Player of the Year has thrown for 3,510 yards while completing 70.4 percent of his passes with 30 TDs and only 6 INTs and here he gets to go against the very man who recruited him and coached him for a while in Gary Crowton -- the one-time BYU boss-man these days is the offensive coordinator of Oregon.
    
Great theatre, right?
    
Beck's very much a spread-the-wealth passer but his money man pass-catcher is versatile TE Jonny Harline who led the Cougars in receptions (49), receiving yards (754) and TDs (11) this year and it was a Beck-to-Harline scoring strike as time expired that lifted BYU past Beehive State rival Utah 33-31 back on Thanksgiving Weekend in Salt Lake City.
    
On the flip side, Oregon is looking to put the brakes on a current three-game losing skid that includes a painful, last-second "Civil War" loss to archrival Oregon State the day after Thanksgiving and one-sided setbacks against both USC and Arizona.
    
Oregon head coach Mike Bellotti figures to give playing time here to a pair of quarterbacks -- Dennis Dixon and Brady Leaf -- but neither's been able to light a fire in recent games and the Ducks come into this tilt a crrummy minus 10 in the all-important turnover margin category while BYU's a plus 14 (that's fourth-best in the country).
    
The key for point-grabbing Oregon is RB Jonathan Stewart who's averaging 5.5 yards a carry and has scored 10 TDs to go along with his 960 yards rushing. If Stewart can move the chains and keep Beck and Co. off the field for chunks of time, then the Ducks will build momentum and perhaps extinguish this current losing streak.
    
Spread Notes -- BYU is 9-3 against the odds overall this season and that included a seven-game ATS winning streak between Sept. 23rd and Nov. 9th. The Cougars are 10-4 spreadwise as favorites since the start of the 2005 season but note BYU is just 0-3-1 versus the vig in bowls since 1998. Oregon is 12-5 ATS as underdog sides since the start of the 2003 season and the Ducks are a solid 18-11 vig-wise against non-conference foes the past seven-plus seasons.

On Friday night, it's ...

NEW ORLEANS BOWL
Louisiana Superdome -- New Orleans, LA
    
RICE (7-5) vs. TROY (7-5)
The onslaught of the bowls (32 of 'em in all this holiday season) is great for the college kids and great for gridiron fans from coast-to-coast but the fact of the matter is that Rice and Troy -- in most years, anyway -- would not be bowling with such SU (straightup) records.
    
Still, a tip of the cap goes out to the Rice Owls who won their last six games in a row to make it this far as rookie head coach Todd Graham guided this crew to the school's first bowl appearance since 1961 (don't you remember the Bluebonnet Bowl loss back then to Kansas?) as the pass-catch combo of QB Chase Clement-to-WR Jarett Dillard shined the final two-thirds of the season with Clement coming into the starting lineup and chucking 21 TDs and 5 INTs in eight games while the All-America Dillard latched onto 82 balls worth 1,176 yards and 20 TDs.
    
Now, it's up to Troy to throw a monkey wrench into that aerial connection and Larry Blakeney's team has stepped up its defense in recent games (allowed 21 points or less in six of the team's last eight regular-season tilts). Then, there's multi-faceted Troy QB Omar Haugabook who led the Sun Belt Conference in completed passes with 227, yards passing with 2,184 and touchdown strikes with 17. However, Haugabook also tossed 16 picks and that's one reason why Troy enters this clash with a minus 10 (compared to Rice's plus 12) in the turnover margin category.
    
Rice averages nearly 28 points a game (27.8, to be exact) and there's balance here with RB Quinton Smith churning out 1,092 yards rushing (a 5.3 yards-per-carry average) to go along with 10 TDs but the price tag has been coming down here -- Rice opened as a 6 1/2-point favorite and went up to 7 points for a day or so and now the Owls are just a four-point choice at press time ... maybe that foreign favorite's role is putting extra heat on a Rice team that has not won a bowl game since a 1954 Cotton Bowl triumph over Alabama.
    
Spread Notes -- Rice has covered its last six consecutive games while heading into this bowl tilt but note the Owls have been faves just once all this year (a 38-24 loss to one-point pup Tulane) and overall this Conference USA club is 2-5 ATS as favorites since the start of the 2004 season. Troy ended its regular season with four spread "W's" in its last five outings and the Trojans are a respectable 22-16 ATS as pups the past five-plus seasons.

NOTE: There's more NFL Week #16 Previews plus College Football Bowl Previews/Coverage in the next Jim Sez.
 

JIM HURLEY'S NOTEBOOK

COLTS STAY IN RACE FOR BYE WITH MNF WIN OVER BENGALS

It didn't turn out to be the shootout everyone expected this past Monday Night when the Indianapolis Colts beat the Cincinnati Bengals 34-16 to stay tied with Baltimore for the second seed in the AFC playoff picture.

It's as if both teams were afraid they'd lose a shootout, so both tried to run clock as best they could with conservative play calling. Indianapolis kept throwing short passes underneath the zone, allowing Peyton Manning to compile a great completion percentage. Cincinnati kept running the ball up the middle, hoping they'd be able to pop open a big play the way Jacksonville kept doing the week before.

They couldn't. Cincinnati's only TD drive came on a short field after a muffed punt. They spent the rest of the night driving for field goals or punting. Indianapolis had much more success moving the ball methodically downfield. They scored four touchdowns and two field goals, with 24 of their points coming on drives of 60 yards or more.

Indianapolis was once again playing like a team that belonged in the playoffs. Cincinnati was once again playing like a team that was too afraid to win a big game. A win for Cincinnati would have lifted them into sole possession of the first Wildcard spot. The loss drops them into a four-way tie for the two AFC bonus entries into the postseason. If this is how the Bengals are going to play with their season on the line, there's no reason to give them much of a chance to advance beyond the first round come January.

Let's crunch the numbers from what turned out to be a disappointing marquee matchup. Then, we'll run through the updated numbers from both the AFC and NFC playoff pictures.

INDIANAPOLIS 34, CINCINNATI 16
Total Yardage: Cincinnati 278, Indianapolis 394
Rushing Yardage: Cincinnati 133, Indianapolis 112
Passing Stats: Cincinnati 14-28-0-145, Indianapolis 29-36-0-282
Turnovers: Cincinnati 1, Indianapolis 1
Points Scored on Drives of 60+ Yards: Cincinnati 6, Indianapolis 24
Third Down Conversions: Cincinnati 18%, Indianapolis 50%
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3, total of 54
Comments: You regular readers know that we like to emphasize rushing yardage, drive points, and third down conversions as the key stats that have the best correlation to winning. Rushing yardage was kind of a wash here. Cincinnati was giving away the short passes to Manning anyway, and those are virtual handoffs to him. Look at drive points and third downs. Those tell the story here. The Bengals put together two long drives and had to settle for field goals. Indianapolis had three long TD drives and a bonus field goal. That's just dominating the parts of the game that matter most. The third downs show you how that could happen. Cincinnati was just 2 of 11. That's why they were punting much of the night, or settling for field goals on their two long drives. Indianapolis converted half the time. That's how you march the ball downfield and eat clock while you're scoring.

The Bengals appear to have made a serious error in judgment believing they could run the ball as easily as Jacksonvill did. They just kept trying to find holes all night. That was dicey at best from the beginning, because it helps to spread out the defense with the passing game if you want to create holes. But, once your down more than a touchdown in the second half, it's kind of futile. All that approach did was guarantee that the loss was 34-16 instead of 44-30. It didn't give them a chance to win the game straight up. The clock just runs too much when you try to run your way to touchdowns from behind.

Let's see what the Indy victory and Cincy loss meant in the AFC playoff picture.

AFC DIVISIONAL LEADERS
San Diego: 12-2 (4-game lead in the AFC West)
Baltimore: 11-3 (3-game lead in the AFC North)
Indianapolis: 11-3 (3-game lead in the AFC South)
New England: 10-4 (2-game lead in the AFC East)
NOTEBOOK: Both Baltimore and Indianapolis have 8-2 records in AFC play. That's the first tie-breaker. They didn't play head-to-head this year. We'll wait a bit before delving deeper into the process to see who gets the spot if they both finish 13-3. That could turn into a very interesting handicapping situation in the final week of the season. With only two weeks left in the season, the only thing left for these teams is determining who gets first round byes. That should be enough motivation to at least stay focused until that's been determined.

AFC WILDCARD RACE (two spots...conference record in parenthesis)
Denver: 8-6 (7-4 in the AFC)
Cincinnati: 8-6 (6-4 in the AFC)
Jacksonville: 8-6 (5-5 in the AFC)
NY Jets: 8-6 (5-5 in the AFC)
Buffalo: 7-7 (5-5 in the AFC)
Pittsburgh: 7-7 (4-6 in the AFC)
Tennessee: 7-7 (4-6 in the AFC)
Kansas City: 7-7 (3-7 in the AFC)
NOTEBOOK: Kansas City looked like they were in the driver's seat after beating Denver on Thanksgiving night. They have now dropped to 12th place in the 16-team AFC! This is such a strong conference that only a fourth of the teams are below .500. That tells you more than anything how the AFC is much better than the NFC. The WHOLE conference except for the patsies are winning enough against the other conference to put themselves at or above .500. Denver is in the best shape right now because of the tie-breaker edge. But, if they lose a game, they can fall out of the mix in a finger snap. Denver and Cincinnati look at first glance to be the only teams who control their own destiny. The good news for the other teams is that they play EACH OTHER this week! One of them will drop to 8-7. That means Jacksonville controls its own destiny too. If the Jaguars win out, they will pass the loser of the Cincinnati/Denver game. If Jacksonville and the NY Jets split, then any of those teams at 7-7 can tie them. Buffalo would have a nice 7-5 tie-breaker were they to win out and finish at 9-7. The others listed at 7-7 are going to need a boatload of help.

NFC DIVISONAL LEADERS
Chicago: 12-2 (6-game lead in the NFC North)
New Orleans: 9-5 (2-game lead in the NFC South)
Dallas: 9-5 (1-game lead in the NFC East)
Seattle: 8-6 (2-game lead in the NFC West)
NOTEBOOK: New Orleans currently holds the tie-breaker edge over Dallas for the second seed and the bye because of that head-to-head victory two Sundays ago. Dallas now has to sweat the NFC East. Philadelphia comes to town this week. Were the Eagles to win that game, they would take over first place because of a series sweep of the Cowboys. Chicago's wrapped up home field throughout the playoffs. Last year all that got them was a loss at home in their first game. That could happen again this year. It's just not that good a team. They might be a 7-7 hopeful if they played in the AFC instead.

NFC WILDCARD RACE (two spots...conference record in parenthesis)
Philadelphia: 8-6 (7-3 in the NFC)
NY Giants: 7-7 (6-4 in the NFC)
Atlanta: 7-7 (5-5 in the NFC)
Minnesota: 6-8 (6-4 in the NFC)
Green Bay: 6-8 (5-5 in the NFC)
San Francisco: 6-8 (5-6 in the NFC)
Carolina: 6-8 (4-6 in the NFC)
St. Louis: 6-8 (4-6 in the NFC)
NOTEBOOK: Right now the Giants own the final wildcard spot because of a head-to-head win in Atlanta. Things can still get really messy and finish with a logjam at 8-8. Frankly, those 6-8 teams have been playing so poorly that it's hard to see any winning out. Hey, it's the NFL. Anything can happen. At the very least, it will be fun to have so many teams playing with some motivation during the penultimate week of the season. That doesn't always happen.

It's funny, both conferences look to have parity. It's just that the AFC is really about 2-3 games better per team. If teams played more than four games a season against the other conference, the difference would be even more pronounced. As we saw with major league baseball this year, the "Nationals" are basically just a glorified minor league. You'll recall they still found a way to win the world championship anyway.

That wraps up this edition of the NOTEBOOK. We'll be back tomorrow with some early bowl previews and a look at the Minnesota/Green Bay Thursday night game in the pro's. Friday will be our regular weekly look at the weekend's NFL action. Saturday we'll get you caught up on the early bowl stat summaries. And on...and on! Make sure you're with us every day of the week so you know what's REALLY happening in the world of sports!

If you'd like some help picking winners, call JIM HURLEY'S NETWORK at 1-800-323-4453. You've still got time to stuff your Christmas stockings with some holiday cash!

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